WEBVTT
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Right, well, good morning!
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Thank you for joining us today
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and welcome to Hurricane Hazards and Science,
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the National Hurricane Center's Role
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in Providing Life-Saving Information.
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I am Shannon Ricles, the Education and Outreach Coordinator
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for Monitor National Marine Sanctuary,
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and I'll be your host today.
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And joining us as my co-host is Mark Losavio,
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who is the Media and Outreach Coordinator for Monitor.
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And this presentation is brought to you
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by NOAA's Monitor National Marine Sanctuary,
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in collaboration with the North Carolina Office
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of State Archeology.
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Now partnering since 1975,
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NOAA and the state of North Carolina,
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work to research, honor, and protect the hallmarks
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of North Carolina's underwater cultural heritage Shipwrecks.
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Now these shipwrecks hold information
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about the ever-changing technologies,
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and cultural and physical landscapes.
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They serve as uniquely accessible underwater museums
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and a memorial to generations of mariners
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who lived, died, and worked and fought off our shores.
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This is one of the many webinars that we will be hosting
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in the coming months for this Submerged
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North Carolina webinars series,
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in collaboration with the North Carolina
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Office of State Archeology.
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So Monitor is just one of 14 national Marine sanctuaries,
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and two marine national monuments
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in the National Marine Sanctuary System.
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The system encompasses more than 600,000 square miles
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of marine and Great Lake waters from Washington State,
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to the Florida Keys, and from Lake Huron to American Samoa.
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Now, during the presentation,
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all attendees will be in listen only mode.
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You are welcome to type your questions
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into the question box for the presenter,
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at the bottom of the control panel
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on the right-hand side of your screen.
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This is the same area you can let us know
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about any technical issues you may be having,
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that we can help you with.
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We'll be monitoring incoming questions and technical issues,
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and we'll respond to them just as soon as we can.
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We are also recording the session and we'll share
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the recording with registered participants
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via the webinar archive page,
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and a URL for this webinar page will be provided
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at the end of the presentation.
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All right, so this morning we are welcoming, Andrew Latto,
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the Hurricane Specialist for the National Hurricane Center.
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So good morning, Andrew, and thank you for joining us.
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And I am having a little trouble.
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I'm going to try to change presenters here. So hold on.
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Whoops.
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All of a sudden, my screen decided to scroll.
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Mark, can you make him a presenter please?
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Sorry, folks.
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Did you get it, Andy?
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Yep.
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Okay.
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My screen all right?
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Yes, thank you.
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Alrighty. Hello everybody.
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As she said, I'm Andy Latto, I'm a Hurricane Specialist
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at the Hurricane Center.
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We're going to talk about some of the science
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behind hurricanes, some climatology,
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how it affects the Eastern United States,
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specifically the Carolinas and the mid-Atlantic,
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and also kind of convey some of the dangers behind it;
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some of the misconceptions.
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And overall you, hopefully, you can walk away
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with a sense of how to best expect things,
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as far as preparedness is concerned,
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and what the hazards might be
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in your particular locality for these hurricanes.
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So I wanna start right off the bat with a poll questions,
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just to make sure you all are awake.
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What's the deadliest hazard from hurricanes?
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And Shannon, I think's gonna to do a poll on there,
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and we're going to say, "Okay, is it widespread
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strong winds, tornadoes, flash flooding from heavy rain,
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or storm surge?"
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Okay. I've launched the poll.
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So select your answer.
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We'll give everybody a couple of seconds
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to get awake and choose the answer.
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Watching responses.
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People are still voting,
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so I'll wait another few seconds.
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Okay.
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We're getting there about 81% of you have voted, 82.
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Okay. We'll give you one more.
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All right. It looks like it's slowed down.
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So I'm going to go ahead and close the poll.
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And then I'm gonna share the polls results,
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and let's see what you guys think.
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So it looks like storm surge came in first at 56%,
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flash flooding from heavy rains at 29%,
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5% of you thought tornadoes,
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and 10% thought strong winds.
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All right, good job guys. Good job group.
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Water is what kills, so it's actually very close
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to what the polling results was.
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Storm surge is about 50%,
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flooding rainfall from rainfall is 27%,
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and much smaller percentages from the others.
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So, yeah, the popular conception is people think about wind,
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but it's the water that causes most of the fatalities.
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That's as far as a direct fatalities from storms occur,
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but there's a lot of indirect fatalities that occur
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as well from these major systems.
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Most frequently is cardiovascular events, you know,
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folks are doing strenuous activities trying to prepare,
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or clean up after the storm.
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Other things could be electric,
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lots of electrocution.
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So from down power lines or accidents,
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things like that, nature that can happen.
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A lot of folks aren't careful
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with their generators afterwards
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and they don't have proper ventilation, that can happen.
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Those are also considered indirect fatalities.
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By age, typically it's folks over 60,
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and the numbers go down
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as the ages go down.
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So climatologically speaking,
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where do these storms come from?
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So we're going to pretend,
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say that we start of in June here.
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And for folks that aren't aware of it,
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we're gonna actually start doing
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the tropical weather outlook, starting May 15th now.
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So we already do the tropical weather outlook
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for the East Pacific starting May 15th,
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but this is the first year we routinely
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do that for the Atlantic on May 15th.
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Just we've seen, noticed a trend,
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that we've typically had a lot of years recently,
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where storms have formed late May.
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And so it follows a similar pattern as June,
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it's just, there's occasional storm in late May,
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therefore we go, "Well, we're already doing the job
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for these specific miles,
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we'll just take a look at the Atlantic too."
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So June, the upper left hand corner,
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at it's likely formations typically Gulf of Mexico,
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up through the Carolina coast.
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And a lot of times you see these from disturbances
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that form off little frontal boundaries.
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You have things that stall, the cold front
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that moves off shore, shore stalls out,
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and you have something that kind of spins up on that,
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and festers for a couple of days, and then turns back north.
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And may make landfall something in the week.
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We had stuff like that last year.
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Arthur was an example of that.
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Going into July, things expand a little bit more
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towards the Caribbean.
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You see like tropical waves start crossing the Atlantic,
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they get a little stronger.
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The conditions become a little bit better,
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as far as shears concerned,
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wind shears are a big storm killer.
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And the shear typically lightens up
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as the season goes on.
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Of course the water's warm up as well.
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So you get those combination of the warmer waters,
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and the lighter winds in the atmosphere
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that allow the storms to really tower up.
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And so by August, you have all hotspots,
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pretty much anywhere in the Western Atlantic
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or the Caribbean Sea.
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And the typical tracks with August,
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you'd have less cold fronts,
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moving down into the Southern United States.
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So the tracks can often times go from east to west
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all the way up through even the Carolinas.
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And that's where you could see, a lot of times,
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the stronger storm-making landfall.
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August and September as these storms
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just kind of move east to west,
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and they kind of curve up a little bit
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as they approach the United States.
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And so September being the peak of the hurricane season,
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when all those conditions are just right,
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and then October starts,
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the things sort of start to die off from east to west.
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So they had the Cape Verde season,
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that kinda ends off of Africa,
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the conditions become a little more hostile.
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A lot of times those waves
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will just keep on propagating across the Atlantic.
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They won't form until I get to the Western Caribbean.
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That happened very classically last year.
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We had a couple of really strong hurricanes
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in the Western Caribbean late in the season.
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Michael, a couple of years ago,
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happened in late in the season,
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is a very similar circumstances.
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So the last time you see those big
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Gulf of Mexico hurricanes happen in October.
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You can also get some strong ones off the East Coast,
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but fortunately by October,
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typically, off the Eastern United States,
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cold fronts, the westerlies,
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the mid latitude westerlies
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kick in and they kind of push the storms
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off to the east before they get a chance to make landfall.
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Unless you're a Sandy type of year,
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where it pivots around it has
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those conditions just right to make landfall.
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By November, things really die down,
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there's a lot of wind shear,
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a lot of cold fronts moving off the United States.
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And so the conditions just are going downhill
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for storms to actually hold together for very long.
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That's kind of a rundown of what to expect
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month by month, typically speaking.
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And so if you add all that together,
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this is kind of what it looks like.
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September 10th is the climatological peak
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of hurricane season, but you can see this chart,
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all the way from left to right,
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you could have storms any of the time
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from, well basically, from like next week,
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all the way till Christmas.
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You add 'em all up to over the last a hundred years.
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So, but typically, you don't see
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a whole lot of activity until August,
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and then it goes on through October.
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You see that little secondary peak,
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that's that Western Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico peak
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that we oftentimes see like the Michaels form,
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and the Wilma's form and whatnot,
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when the storms come out of the Western Caribbean Sea.
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The history of tropical cyclones.
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You're going to see a couple of versions of this map.
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'Cause it kinda, it kind of highlights whether or not
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you're out of harm's way at any point in time.
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So unless you're way over here,
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you'll see potential effects from a tropical cycle
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at one point or another, probably in your lifetime.
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Zooming in a little bit, Major Hurricane History.
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So every yellow line was a major hurricane reaching land.
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Carolina's no stranger to them,
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and even New England,
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can get impacts directly from a major hurricane landfall.
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So we're gonna go through some hurricane basics,
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and kind of show you what they're all about.
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How they form and what their structure is.
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So here is four different major hurricanes.
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So they're all different shapes and sizes.
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Jose, it's hard to tell by looking at the map,
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it was a fairly small compact storm.
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It's kind of like Andrew,
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where you could have been in Miami getting racked
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by a category five hurricane,
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but if you were up in like,
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a hundred miles north,
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it was a breezy day, it wasn't that bad.
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Maria is a little bit bigger of a storm.
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00:11:34.690 --> 00:11:36.610
Irma was a very large storm.
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When Irma passed by south Florida,
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you could feel it all the way up in Jacksonville.
269
00:11:41.410 --> 00:11:43.980
So it was, it was a very large, broad circulation.
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00:11:43.980 --> 00:11:46.374
The convection, that all that red and yellow,
271
00:11:46.374 --> 00:11:50.405
spanned it out for a couple of hundred miles.
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And then Joaquin,
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00:11:52.150 --> 00:11:54.550
even though it's eye was clouded over at that point in time,
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was a little bit sheared.
275
00:11:56.661 --> 00:11:57.494
It was still a major hurricane.
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So what makes these form? How do we build a hurricane?
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So you need all these ingredients to come together,
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just right, for them to happen.
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So number one, you need a preexisting disturbance.
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00:12:10.533 --> 00:12:12.152
So what is that?
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00:12:12.152 --> 00:12:13.582
It could be a tropical wave.
282
00:12:13.582 --> 00:12:14.415
It could be an old cold front.
283
00:12:14.415 --> 00:12:16.720
It could be some, a good example,
284
00:12:16.720 --> 00:12:17.940
Barry a couple of years ago,
285
00:12:17.940 --> 00:12:22.030
it was a mesoscale convective system.
286
00:12:22.030 --> 00:12:24.580
It came out of the central plains in the United States.
287
00:12:24.580 --> 00:12:27.680
Come all the way around the high pressure area
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00:12:27.680 --> 00:12:30.200
into the Gulf of Mexico and became a storm.
289
00:12:30.200 --> 00:12:32.070
So any of those things that have
290
00:12:32.070 --> 00:12:34.106
a lot of thunderstorm activities,
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00:12:34.106 --> 00:12:35.360
or a little bit of turning in the atmosphere,
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00:12:35.360 --> 00:12:37.540
that have formed from something else
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00:12:37.540 --> 00:12:38.410
can be the building block,
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00:12:38.410 --> 00:12:41.408
the initialization of what a hurricane can be.
295
00:12:41.408 --> 00:12:44.150
So you need to be far enough north of the equator,
296
00:12:44.150 --> 00:12:46.720
the Coriolis force, the turning in the atmosphere,
297
00:12:46.720 --> 00:12:48.544
it has to be strong enough.
298
00:12:48.544 --> 00:12:50.226
And the farther north you go,
299
00:12:50.226 --> 00:12:52.060
the stronger that factor becomes.
300
00:12:52.060 --> 00:12:54.447
We see a little change in wind speed,
301
00:12:54.447 --> 00:12:55.540
and or direction with height,
302
00:12:55.540 --> 00:12:58.026
the word wind shear I'm talking about.
303
00:12:58.026 --> 00:13:00.980
When the winds are 10 miles per hour at the ground,
304
00:13:00.980 --> 00:13:02.540
out of the east,
305
00:13:02.540 --> 00:13:04.790
and they're 10 miles per hour out of the east,
306
00:13:04.790 --> 00:13:08.150
five miles up in the atmosphere, that's light wind shear.
307
00:13:08.150 --> 00:13:10.430
If it's 10 miles per hour to the east of the ground,
308
00:13:10.430 --> 00:13:12.840
and a hundred miles per hour to the east, five miles up,
309
00:13:12.840 --> 00:13:14.350
that strong wind shear.
310
00:13:14.350 --> 00:13:15.720
Hurricanes don't like wind shear,
311
00:13:15.720 --> 00:13:17.363
it'll tear the storms apart.
312
00:13:18.266 --> 00:13:20.869
Because they'll just tear the top off of a thunderstorm.
313
00:13:20.869 --> 00:13:22.970
So they need to be able to have that light winds,
314
00:13:22.970 --> 00:13:25.620
to be able to have that tall tower of convection to fuel,
315
00:13:25.620 --> 00:13:26.993
to get that engine going.
316
00:13:27.890 --> 00:13:28.960
And so the fuel it takes
317
00:13:28.960 --> 00:13:30.380
is the warm sea surface temperatures.
318
00:13:30.380 --> 00:13:33.080
That's where it gets its warm water and that warm air.
319
00:13:34.310 --> 00:13:35.600
An unstable atmosphere,
320
00:13:35.600 --> 00:13:38.163
so the temperatures go down as you go up.
321
00:13:39.464 --> 00:13:40.480
That's how we call instability.
322
00:13:40.480 --> 00:13:43.930
It helps the water air parcels lift fast,
323
00:13:43.930 --> 00:13:45.700
with that instability.
324
00:13:45.700 --> 00:13:48.328
And then high atmospheric moisture.
325
00:13:48.328 --> 00:13:50.170
You can't have a whole bunch of dry air,
326
00:13:50.170 --> 00:13:51.240
expect to have a lot of thunderstorms.
327
00:13:51.240 --> 00:13:52.600
You go outside today, here,
328
00:13:52.600 --> 00:13:55.290
it's barely a cloud in the sky. It's dry.
329
00:13:55.290 --> 00:13:57.973
Not conducive for thunderstorm activity.
330
00:13:59.460 --> 00:14:00.990
So example of these disturbances
331
00:14:00.990 --> 00:14:02.986
I was kind of alluding to already.
332
00:14:02.986 --> 00:14:06.460
So we have those tropical wave that come off of Africa,
333
00:14:06.460 --> 00:14:08.770
about 70% of all the tropical cyclones
334
00:14:08.770 --> 00:14:11.749
that we see in the Atlantic basin come from that.
335
00:14:11.749 --> 00:14:13.562
Then we have low fronts,
336
00:14:13.562 --> 00:14:16.390
low pressure systems, in the upper levels of atmosphere.
337
00:14:16.390 --> 00:14:18.400
We sometimes have these upper level lows
338
00:14:18.400 --> 00:14:20.853
that spun up Joaquin in 2015.
339
00:14:21.870 --> 00:14:22.950
Another great example,
340
00:14:22.950 --> 00:14:25.540
and you folks, up in the mid-Atlantic,
341
00:14:25.540 --> 00:14:28.460
and the Carolinas probably see a lot of this,
342
00:14:28.460 --> 00:14:29.915
occluded cycles.
343
00:14:29.915 --> 00:14:31.050
What I mean by those,
344
00:14:31.050 --> 00:14:33.240
is you have a cold front associated with a low
345
00:14:33.240 --> 00:14:35.140
that moves off the United States,
346
00:14:35.140 --> 00:14:38.360
that can go over warm waters and turn into a storm.
347
00:14:38.360 --> 00:14:41.540
It can transition into a tropical cyclone or a hurricane.
348
00:14:41.540 --> 00:14:43.620
So we usually see a few of those,
349
00:14:43.620 --> 00:14:45.620
a couple each year.
350
00:14:45.620 --> 00:14:47.860
And like I alluded to, the other one,
351
00:14:47.860 --> 00:14:50.016
the disturbances that come off
352
00:14:50.016 --> 00:14:52.057
the United States thunderstorms cluster
353
00:14:52.057 --> 00:14:53.924
produced by a non-tropical weather systems.
354
00:14:53.924 --> 00:14:55.806
That could be a big thunderstorm complex
355
00:14:55.806 --> 00:14:57.670
that crosses over your state, moves off shore,
356
00:14:57.670 --> 00:14:58.820
and turns into a storm.
357
00:14:59.822 --> 00:15:01.522
So all those are possible sources.
358
00:15:02.558 --> 00:15:03.690
How do they die?
359
00:15:03.690 --> 00:15:05.330
Number one, they weaken over land.
360
00:15:05.330 --> 00:15:06.939
Land causes friction.
361
00:15:06.939 --> 00:15:10.120
These storms do not survive with friction.
362
00:15:10.120 --> 00:15:12.440
They require that non-fiction water surface
363
00:15:12.440 --> 00:15:15.550
to spin them up, and give them that energy,
364
00:15:15.550 --> 00:15:17.500
and keep the engine going.
365
00:15:17.500 --> 00:15:20.620
They could mix in with cold air or dry air
366
00:15:20.620 --> 00:15:22.900
and become extra tropical.
367
00:15:22.900 --> 00:15:25.198
When these storms, a lot of times,
368
00:15:25.198 --> 00:15:26.750
go over cooler waters and interact with the cold front,
369
00:15:26.750 --> 00:15:28.942
they'll become extra tropical.
370
00:15:28.942 --> 00:15:32.753
Basically they become a mid-latitude cyclone with a cold
371
00:15:33.737 --> 00:15:34.570
front. We transition to that.
372
00:15:34.570 --> 00:15:37.262
Or they weakened to hostile environments,
373
00:15:37.262 --> 00:15:38.820
such as strong wind shear.
374
00:15:38.820 --> 00:15:40.540
They can get torn apart by wind shear or cool waters.
375
00:15:40.540 --> 00:15:42.610
And then all you have left,
376
00:15:42.610 --> 00:15:44.320
is this little swirl of low clouds
377
00:15:44.320 --> 00:15:46.203
in the low levels of the atmosphere.
378
00:15:47.099 --> 00:15:50.780
So those are different ways they can meet their demise.
379
00:15:50.780 --> 00:15:53.603
The very classic example of the Cape Verde hurricane.
380
00:15:54.944 --> 00:15:57.750
You have off of Africa, a tropical wave,
381
00:15:57.750 --> 00:16:01.230
and moves towards the west across the tropical Atlantic,
382
00:16:01.230 --> 00:16:03.410
slowly develops becomes a tropical depression,
383
00:16:03.410 --> 00:16:05.225
then a tropical storm,
384
00:16:05.225 --> 00:16:06.690
then a hurricane off the Eastern United States.
385
00:16:06.690 --> 00:16:09.529
And this lucky case, it re-curves,
386
00:16:09.529 --> 00:16:11.140
doesn't affect land,
387
00:16:11.140 --> 00:16:14.345
and comes a extra tropical transition.
388
00:16:14.345 --> 00:16:17.440
See the fronts, the cold fronts, the blue triangles,
389
00:16:17.440 --> 00:16:19.960
the classic warm front to the right,
390
00:16:19.960 --> 00:16:21.940
and it becomes an extra tropical storm
391
00:16:21.940 --> 00:16:24.703
that accelerates off across the northern Atlantic.
392
00:16:26.100 --> 00:16:27.200
Many times though, obviously,
393
00:16:27.200 --> 00:16:29.220
we're not as fortunate in these storms,
394
00:16:29.220 --> 00:16:31.460
the steering flow will take these into the United States.
395
00:16:31.460 --> 00:16:33.840
And I'm going to tell you how we look at those
396
00:16:33.840 --> 00:16:35.440
steering flows here in a second.
397
00:16:37.444 --> 00:16:39.550
One example of a season.
398
00:16:39.550 --> 00:16:42.060
So storms are all different shapes and sizes.
399
00:16:42.060 --> 00:16:44.950
They go different places, depending on the steering flow.
400
00:16:44.950 --> 00:16:45.970
You can see down south,
401
00:16:45.970 --> 00:16:48.623
you have a lot of classic east to west moving storms.
402
00:16:48.623 --> 00:16:52.060
They formed off the Cape Verde islands,
403
00:16:52.060 --> 00:16:53.490
but then you look north,
404
00:16:53.490 --> 00:16:54.990
you have a lot of storms that formed out here,
405
00:16:54.990 --> 00:16:57.326
meandered around and went north.
406
00:16:57.326 --> 00:16:58.810
That, those could be of subtropical origins.
407
00:16:58.810 --> 00:17:00.860
They could have formed from old upper-level lows,
408
00:17:00.860 --> 00:17:03.550
or oral fronts, different features like that.
409
00:17:03.550 --> 00:17:05.588
And then you have, look right here,
410
00:17:05.588 --> 00:17:06.925
the Western Caribbean Sea, the Gulf of Mexico,
411
00:17:06.925 --> 00:17:09.020
these are some of the early season
412
00:17:09.020 --> 00:17:11.259
and late season ones that made have formed.
413
00:17:11.259 --> 00:17:13.100
Like number three here, Sydney, was June.
414
00:17:13.100 --> 00:17:15.650
So yeah, those forming maybe off of an old frontal boundary,
415
00:17:15.650 --> 00:17:16.980
and then they lift north
416
00:17:16.980 --> 00:17:18.842
into the United States.
417
00:17:18.842 --> 00:17:20.435
So kind of a classic season here,
418
00:17:20.435 --> 00:17:21.268
where they have a few different areas
419
00:17:21.268 --> 00:17:22.270
that they could form at.
420
00:17:25.942 --> 00:17:26.790
So how do they, how do we know where
421
00:17:26.790 --> 00:17:28.879
they're going to be going?
422
00:17:28.879 --> 00:17:30.560
So basically you picture a leaf in a stream.
423
00:17:30.560 --> 00:17:33.248
They're just sitting there moving wherever
424
00:17:33.248 --> 00:17:35.807
the flow in the atmosphere is moving.
425
00:17:35.807 --> 00:17:38.690
Typically these deeper storms move
426
00:17:38.690 --> 00:17:43.200
with the large-scale atmospheric flow, the deep layer flow.
427
00:17:43.200 --> 00:17:45.180
A lot of times we look at the mid-level in the atmosphere,
428
00:17:45.180 --> 00:17:47.603
to determine what those steering flows might be.
429
00:17:48.870 --> 00:17:50.790
It's actually a very well understood,
430
00:17:50.790 --> 00:17:52.340
fairly well understood problem,
431
00:17:53.190 --> 00:17:54.639
because you've had to focus mainly
432
00:17:54.639 --> 00:17:56.948
just on this steering flow and the larger scale features.
433
00:17:56.948 --> 00:17:59.820
So those are large and identifiable computer models,
434
00:17:59.820 --> 00:18:02.498
a lot of times pick up on those fairly well.
435
00:18:02.498 --> 00:18:06.040
And they provide a fairly good estimation
436
00:18:06.040 --> 00:18:07.640
of where the storms are going to be going,
437
00:18:07.640 --> 00:18:09.040
especially in the near term.
438
00:18:12.231 --> 00:18:14.000
Intensity's a bit more of a challenge.
439
00:18:14.000 --> 00:18:16.440
So intensity, there's a lot of things going into play here.
440
00:18:16.440 --> 00:18:18.700
Not only did we have to worry about what's going on
441
00:18:18.700 --> 00:18:21.050
around the storm and the environment,
442
00:18:21.050 --> 00:18:22.620
we also have to worry about what's going on
443
00:18:22.620 --> 00:18:25.640
inside the storms, as far as it's structure.
444
00:18:25.640 --> 00:18:27.580
A storm can have a great environment,
445
00:18:27.580 --> 00:18:29.920
but if the internal structure's all messed up,
446
00:18:29.920 --> 00:18:33.960
and it can't get an eye-wall forming, and the core together,
447
00:18:33.960 --> 00:18:36.908
it might really struggle to strengthen.
448
00:18:36.908 --> 00:18:39.300
So we have to be aware of all of those different
449
00:18:39.300 --> 00:18:42.210
scales of the issue with intensity.
450
00:18:42.210 --> 00:18:44.470
And it spends a lot on track,
451
00:18:44.470 --> 00:18:47.850
because if it track's over colder waters or land,
452
00:18:47.850 --> 00:18:49.300
it could be a big difference.
453
00:18:50.206 --> 00:18:52.840
A great example is Dorian.
454
00:18:52.840 --> 00:18:55.680
Hurricane Dorian that went across the Bahamas,
455
00:18:55.680 --> 00:18:57.721
and devastated part of the Bahama chain,
456
00:18:57.721 --> 00:19:01.770
A lot of the models were having it crossover Hispaniola.
457
00:19:01.770 --> 00:19:04.150
And so their intensity forecast,
458
00:19:04.150 --> 00:19:05.600
a lot of them had dissipating.
459
00:19:06.490 --> 00:19:08.510
Unfortunately, it never really crossed that island,
460
00:19:08.510 --> 00:19:11.363
and instead of moving, it intensified off shore.
461
00:19:12.304 --> 00:19:14.060
Had it made across the island,
462
00:19:14.060 --> 00:19:17.040
it would have made it across maybe as a weak tropical storm.
463
00:19:17.040 --> 00:19:18.940
Instead it became a very strong hurricane.
464
00:19:18.940 --> 00:19:22.233
Remember in the category five, ultimately.
465
00:19:22.233 --> 00:19:24.040
The other factors are winds,
466
00:19:24.040 --> 00:19:26.600
temperature and moisture around the storm.
467
00:19:26.600 --> 00:19:29.107
So those are the key factors we look at.
468
00:19:29.107 --> 00:19:32.610
The shear, water temperatures, and moisture.
469
00:19:32.610 --> 00:19:35.194
Those are again, I mean, I've said that a couple of times,
470
00:19:35.194 --> 00:19:36.027
but those are key factors as far as
471
00:19:36.027 --> 00:19:37.663
intensification of a storm.
472
00:19:38.560 --> 00:19:41.410
Those internal processes are very important.
473
00:19:41.410 --> 00:19:44.700
That bottom right-hand corner pictures a microwave image.
474
00:19:44.700 --> 00:19:47.620
Kind of digs into the storm and shows you the structure.
475
00:19:47.620 --> 00:19:50.216
You see like, a ring of dry air in there,
476
00:19:50.216 --> 00:19:51.862
and you're like, "Oh, when it went,
477
00:19:51.862 --> 00:19:52.797
it went under an eyewall replacement cycle."
478
00:19:53.717 --> 00:19:55.670
So it might struggle initially with intensification
479
00:19:55.670 --> 00:19:56.870
in that kind of example.
480
00:20:00.160 --> 00:20:03.320
Another challenge we face in forecasting,
481
00:20:03.320 --> 00:20:06.130
is a rapid intensification.
482
00:20:06.130 --> 00:20:09.370
In this example, the storm goes from a weak hurricane
483
00:20:09.370 --> 00:20:12.050
to a major hurricane very quickly.
484
00:20:12.050 --> 00:20:15.143
And it's sometimes very difficult to pick up on
485
00:20:15.143 --> 00:20:17.610
when that process is going to occur.
486
00:20:17.610 --> 00:20:18.620
We look at the factors.
487
00:20:18.620 --> 00:20:20.040
We look at all the environmental factors
488
00:20:20.040 --> 00:20:22.490
and know that those are all very conducive,
489
00:20:22.490 --> 00:20:24.422
and the storm looks like it's going
490
00:20:24.422 --> 00:20:25.255
to have a good structure,
491
00:20:25.255 --> 00:20:27.470
then we can get higher confidence.
492
00:20:27.470 --> 00:20:29.060
And rapid intensification
493
00:20:29.060 --> 00:20:32.683
is defined by 35 mile per hour wind increase in 24 hours.
494
00:20:33.610 --> 00:20:35.250
But it's still poorly understood
495
00:20:35.250 --> 00:20:36.770
and generally poorly forecasted.
496
00:20:36.770 --> 00:20:39.017
It's very, very hard to have the high confidence to say,
497
00:20:39.017 --> 00:20:41.210
"Okay, this storm is going to get 40,
498
00:20:41.210 --> 00:20:43.310
knots stronger, in the next day."
499
00:20:43.310 --> 00:20:44.610
It's tough to pick up on that.
500
00:20:44.610 --> 00:20:46.930
We have different methods to look at that.
501
00:20:46.930 --> 00:20:49.050
Statistically, there's other tools
502
00:20:49.050 --> 00:20:51.230
that are being developed to help us with that.
503
00:20:51.230 --> 00:20:53.853
And we're still in the learning process of that.
504
00:20:55.760 --> 00:20:58.223
So our whole role here at NHC,
505
00:20:59.440 --> 00:21:02.500
is I'm going to go over that here now.
506
00:21:02.500 --> 00:21:05.240
The left-hand side of the screen you have in 1995,
507
00:21:05.240 --> 00:21:06.410
the buildings being built.
508
00:21:06.410 --> 00:21:11.150
They used to be over in the eastern part of Miami,
509
00:21:11.150 --> 00:21:13.700
until Hurricane Andrew hit that building,
510
00:21:13.700 --> 00:21:16.673
and took the radar out, tossed some cars around,
511
00:21:16.673 --> 00:21:18.917
and we decided, "Okay, we should probably build a building
512
00:21:18.917 --> 00:21:20.620
that's a little bit more resilient,
513
00:21:20.620 --> 00:21:23.867
since we're putting the hurricane center in South Florida."
514
00:21:25.452 --> 00:21:26.290
And so, Herb Saffir,
515
00:21:26.290 --> 00:21:27.760
which is one of the people that designed
516
00:21:27.760 --> 00:21:30.920
Saffir-Simpson Wind scale, helped design this building.
517
00:21:30.920 --> 00:21:34.940
It's 10 inch thick walls made of tons of concrete,
518
00:21:34.940 --> 00:21:37.140
with reinforced metal rods.
519
00:21:37.140 --> 00:21:40.990
So we can sit in there while a hurricane's blowing outside
520
00:21:40.990 --> 00:21:43.640
and be okay inside.
521
00:21:43.640 --> 00:21:45.610
Even on the right-hand corner of the screen,
522
00:21:45.610 --> 00:21:47.703
you see this big building here,
523
00:21:47.703 --> 00:21:49.360
that's a giant generator with a giant gas tank.
524
00:21:49.360 --> 00:21:51.980
So we can be a couple of weeks without electricity,
525
00:21:51.980 --> 00:21:54.663
still forecasting away, while there's storms outside.
526
00:21:56.570 --> 00:21:59.670
So the questions we have to answer as forecasters is first,
527
00:21:59.670 --> 00:22:01.530
we have to do an analysis.
528
00:22:01.530 --> 00:22:03.670
When we go through the forecast cycle,
529
00:22:03.670 --> 00:22:05.519
let's pretend I'm sitting down,
530
00:22:05.519 --> 00:22:06.703
it's a few hours process.
531
00:22:08.357 --> 00:22:11.126
And so some of the questions we have the first answer is,
532
00:22:11.126 --> 00:22:12.304
"Where's the storm at?"
533
00:22:12.304 --> 00:22:14.510
From this, the motion can be determined.
534
00:22:14.510 --> 00:22:17.194
We look at a lot of different data aircraft, if we're lucky,
535
00:22:17.194 --> 00:22:19.540
If not we have satellite imagery,
536
00:22:19.540 --> 00:22:21.530
we have scatterometer data,
537
00:22:21.530 --> 00:22:25.140
which is the satellite wind data, or buoy data...
538
00:22:25.140 --> 00:22:27.140
We have tons of sources we can look at.
539
00:22:27.140 --> 00:22:30.340
Even ship data, to try to determine where these centers are.
540
00:22:30.340 --> 00:22:31.173
'Cause that's not as,
541
00:22:31.173 --> 00:22:33.529
sometimes it's not as straightforward,
542
00:22:33.529 --> 00:22:35.324
as you see in this picture, where you see an eye.
543
00:22:35.324 --> 00:22:36.653
It's very easy to figure out that one.
544
00:22:36.653 --> 00:22:37.750
A lot of times these systems in the formative stages
545
00:22:37.750 --> 00:22:39.750
are very difficult to find the center,
546
00:22:39.750 --> 00:22:41.640
and therefore very difficult to figure out
547
00:22:41.640 --> 00:22:44.620
where they've been going for the last several hours.
548
00:22:44.620 --> 00:22:45.760
How strong is the storm?
549
00:22:45.760 --> 00:22:48.610
Even even more difficult if you don't have a lot of data.
550
00:22:49.735 --> 00:22:51.160
And a lot of the data sources have their limitations.
551
00:22:51.160 --> 00:22:53.460
That some of the best data we can get is aircraft,
552
00:22:53.460 --> 00:22:55.410
or radar if it's close enough to shore.
553
00:22:56.310 --> 00:22:57.980
Buoy data could be very useful as well,
554
00:22:57.980 --> 00:22:59.220
'cause it kind of gives you
555
00:22:59.220 --> 00:23:02.160
an actual pinpoint specific data.
556
00:23:02.160 --> 00:23:05.930
Otherwise we use satellite estimates,
557
00:23:05.930 --> 00:23:08.970
or if we have satellite wind data, we use that as well.
558
00:23:08.970 --> 00:23:10.760
How big is the storm?
559
00:23:10.760 --> 00:23:12.050
Another important factor.
560
00:23:12.050 --> 00:23:13.780
How far away do the tropical storm
561
00:23:13.780 --> 00:23:15.650
force winds extend from the center?
562
00:23:15.650 --> 00:23:17.670
That's a major part of how we determine
563
00:23:17.670 --> 00:23:19.769
where to issue watches and warnings.
564
00:23:19.769 --> 00:23:21.320
So if you have a very compact storm,
565
00:23:21.320 --> 00:23:23.637
where the storm tropical, storm force winds,
566
00:23:23.637 --> 00:23:25.210
only extend 30 miles from the center,
567
00:23:25.210 --> 00:23:26.320
you have a lot smaller area
568
00:23:26.320 --> 00:23:28.450
that you have to worry about evacuations, and whatnot,
569
00:23:28.450 --> 00:23:31.100
and preparations versus one that has
570
00:23:31.100 --> 00:23:32.773
a hundred mile storm radius.
571
00:23:34.387 --> 00:23:35.810
And so we had to look at all that data to determine
572
00:23:35.810 --> 00:23:38.600
those particular factors for tropical storm
573
00:23:38.600 --> 00:23:39.943
or hurricane force winds.
574
00:23:41.486 --> 00:23:43.360
And as I was saying, ship buoy,
575
00:23:43.360 --> 00:23:44.520
aircraft, scatterometer data,
576
00:23:44.520 --> 00:23:46.390
all helpful in trying to determine
577
00:23:46.390 --> 00:23:49.003
all three of these questions we have to answer.
578
00:23:50.570 --> 00:23:53.110
So there's some uncertainty when we do this analysis.
579
00:23:53.110 --> 00:23:56.060
And usually the week of the storm,
580
00:23:56.060 --> 00:23:57.840
the harder it is to figure out where it is.
581
00:23:57.840 --> 00:23:59.590
And that's, I was alluding to that,
582
00:24:00.894 --> 00:24:02.186
because if it has a major hurricane, has an eye,
583
00:24:02.186 --> 00:24:03.518
you can sit there, and look at a satellite,
584
00:24:03.518 --> 00:24:05.411
"Oh, there it is." Pretty simple.
585
00:24:05.411 --> 00:24:06.244
So our error is usually very low
586
00:24:06.244 --> 00:24:07.800
where the storm is for the analysis,
587
00:24:07.800 --> 00:24:09.300
five to 20 nautical miles.
588
00:24:09.300 --> 00:24:12.080
And this is that hour zero, keep that in mind.
589
00:24:12.080 --> 00:24:13.500
Hurricanes 50 to 40.
590
00:24:13.500 --> 00:24:16.057
40 being, if you can't see the well-defined eye,
591
00:24:16.057 --> 00:24:17.675
and it's kind of obscured,
592
00:24:17.675 --> 00:24:21.242
you have that typical area, you can get out of that.
593
00:24:21.242 --> 00:24:22.739
And then tropical storms,
594
00:24:22.739 --> 00:24:24.760
a little bit more error, because again,
595
00:24:24.760 --> 00:24:26.660
you can't find the center very easily.
596
00:24:28.348 --> 00:24:31.923
Intensity. Within about 10%.
597
00:24:31.923 --> 00:24:33.510
So a a hundred mile per hour hurricane
598
00:24:33.510 --> 00:24:36.023
could be 90 or 110 miles per hour.
599
00:24:37.291 --> 00:24:39.110
So a 30 mile per hour top compression
600
00:24:39.110 --> 00:24:42.000
could be a 45 mile per hour tropical storm.
601
00:24:42.000 --> 00:24:44.934
It's just basically the limitation of the data
602
00:24:44.934 --> 00:24:46.050
that we have at the time.
603
00:24:46.050 --> 00:24:49.380
And then wind radii, within about 25%.
604
00:24:49.380 --> 00:24:51.020
So if we say it's about 30 miles
605
00:24:51.020 --> 00:24:52.968
from the center of the extend,
606
00:24:52.968 --> 00:24:54.557
you might have to consider it being
607
00:24:54.557 --> 00:24:57.743
almost 40 miles to be on the safe side.
608
00:25:01.980 --> 00:25:04.370
So the radii present the largest distance
609
00:25:04.370 --> 00:25:05.810
from the center in the particular quadrant.
610
00:25:05.810 --> 00:25:08.439
That's important because we might say,
611
00:25:08.439 --> 00:25:10.830
they extend 120 miles from the center,
612
00:25:10.830 --> 00:25:12.800
but that's maybe right here, into my center,
613
00:25:12.800 --> 00:25:14.490
only a hundred over here.
614
00:25:14.490 --> 00:25:16.140
But you have to assume the worst case scenario,
615
00:25:16.140 --> 00:25:18.300
in this case, to stay out of the harm's way.
616
00:25:18.300 --> 00:25:20.300
So this, when we see this graphic here,
617
00:25:20.300 --> 00:25:22.010
that's what we're showing the tropical storm force winds
618
00:25:22.010 --> 00:25:23.493
is that large orange circle,
619
00:25:24.377 --> 00:25:28.567
and that brownish copper is hurricane force winds.
620
00:25:28.567 --> 00:25:32.170
And our products will always show this 34, 50, and 64,
621
00:25:32.170 --> 00:25:34.245
you see in the bottom left-hand corner,
622
00:25:34.245 --> 00:25:35.548
that's in nautical miles,
623
00:25:35.548 --> 00:25:37.693
and how far the maximum extent of each quadrant is.
624
00:25:39.660 --> 00:25:43.170
Okay, next poll question, to make sure you're still awake.
625
00:25:43.170 --> 00:25:44.760
What is typically the more challenging part
626
00:25:44.760 --> 00:25:48.013
of the hurricane forecast? Track or intensity?
627
00:25:48.013 --> 00:25:48.940
If you're paying attention,
628
00:25:48.940 --> 00:25:49.917
you'll know the answer to this one.
629
00:25:51.823 --> 00:25:54.673
All right. The poll is open cast your votes now.
630
00:26:03.430 --> 00:26:06.533
Votes coming in really fast. We've already got 70%.
631
00:26:20.220 --> 00:26:22.646
All right, I'll keep the poll open
632
00:26:22.646 --> 00:26:23.479
for about five more seconds.
633
00:26:23.479 --> 00:26:24.312
Get your votes in.
634
00:26:31.337 --> 00:26:32.170
All right.
635
00:26:32.170 --> 00:26:33.323
Last chance.
636
00:26:35.193 --> 00:26:36.026
And we're done.
637
00:26:38.430 --> 00:26:41.870
So we have about 24% voted for track,
638
00:26:41.870 --> 00:26:45.510
and 76% voting for intensity.
639
00:26:45.510 --> 00:26:46.510
All right. Great.
640
00:26:46.510 --> 00:26:49.210
Yep. Intensity is the correct answer.
641
00:26:49.210 --> 00:26:51.460
Intensity is definitely more difficult
642
00:26:51.460 --> 00:26:54.343
statistically to forecast than track.
643
00:26:54.343 --> 00:26:56.650
Track forecasting, as we were saying before,
644
00:26:56.650 --> 00:26:57.910
is relatively simple.
645
00:26:57.910 --> 00:27:00.680
It's the cork or the leaf in the stream.
646
00:27:00.680 --> 00:27:02.950
The larger features, you see in the top right-hand corner,
647
00:27:02.950 --> 00:27:04.910
larger features, it just flows around.
648
00:27:04.910 --> 00:27:07.564
It goes, flows around the high pressure,
649
00:27:07.564 --> 00:27:09.330
gets picked up by a trough and turns away.
650
00:27:09.330 --> 00:27:10.760
So intensity forecasting,
651
00:27:10.760 --> 00:27:12.600
we have to worry about the inner structure
652
00:27:12.600 --> 00:27:16.070
and the larger scale environment.
653
00:27:16.070 --> 00:27:18.030
So these storms can then be bringing dry air into 'em.
654
00:27:18.030 --> 00:27:21.540
It takes time to work that dry air out, for example,
655
00:27:21.540 --> 00:27:24.930
and so it's much more difficult to forecast for intensity.
656
00:27:24.930 --> 00:27:26.180
When radii forecasting,
657
00:27:26.180 --> 00:27:29.194
we have some guidance, but not a lot,
658
00:27:29.194 --> 00:27:32.910
So we have climatological methods we look at.
659
00:27:32.910 --> 00:27:34.465
Some of them global models,
660
00:27:34.465 --> 00:27:37.060
and higher res models are also providing
661
00:27:37.060 --> 00:27:40.080
some guidance onto that as well.
662
00:27:40.080 --> 00:27:42.770
But the errors in those are still being studied,
663
00:27:42.770 --> 00:27:46.140
and there's some challenges with that.
664
00:27:46.140 --> 00:27:49.240
There's different challenges that are faced with wind radii.
665
00:27:49.240 --> 00:27:51.260
Is the storm strengthening or weakening?
666
00:27:51.260 --> 00:27:53.270
Is it becoming extra topical?
667
00:27:53.270 --> 00:27:55.090
If things are, if this is going to be interacting
668
00:27:55.090 --> 00:27:57.210
with like a frontal boundary, as it goes north,
669
00:27:57.210 --> 00:27:59.510
these wind fields can expand very rapidly.
670
00:27:59.510 --> 00:28:02.180
That becomes a big challenge in how far the extent
671
00:28:02.180 --> 00:28:05.460
of these tropical storm force winds are going to be.
672
00:28:05.460 --> 00:28:07.430
Also if it passes over land,
673
00:28:07.430 --> 00:28:08.910
well that radii could decrease
674
00:28:08.910 --> 00:28:10.220
because you have that friction.
675
00:28:10.220 --> 00:28:11.820
So all, you have to think about all those things,
676
00:28:11.820 --> 00:28:14.470
when you're talking about the wind radii forecasting.
677
00:28:15.960 --> 00:28:19.030
So our product suite at the Hurricane Center,
678
00:28:19.030 --> 00:28:20.550
brought up from a time by time basis.
679
00:28:20.550 --> 00:28:23.246
So we have the tropical weather outlook we routinely issue.
680
00:28:23.246 --> 00:28:25.990
We also might issue a special tropical weather outlook.
681
00:28:25.990 --> 00:28:28.044
If there's something that's looking
682
00:28:28.044 --> 00:28:29.374
a little bit suspicious out there,
683
00:28:29.374 --> 00:28:31.091
and we have to have new information that says,
684
00:28:31.091 --> 00:28:32.970
"Oh, we have to increase the probabilities big time."
685
00:28:32.970 --> 00:28:35.230
But five days out, we usually,
686
00:28:35.230 --> 00:28:36.973
that's the only thing you see,
687
00:28:36.973 --> 00:28:38.990
if we have no storms is an outlook.
688
00:28:38.990 --> 00:28:40.030
Within three to five days,
689
00:28:40.030 --> 00:28:41.890
we might have an advisory for a storm.
690
00:28:41.890 --> 00:28:44.660
So we have the advisories, wind speed probabilities,
691
00:28:44.660 --> 00:28:46.260
forecast discussion.
692
00:28:46.260 --> 00:28:49.810
We typically issue every six hours for a storm
693
00:28:49.810 --> 00:28:52.592
that's out there without threatening any land.
694
00:28:52.592 --> 00:28:55.900
Within two to three days of landfall, we will issue,
695
00:28:55.900 --> 00:28:57.700
you know, a couple of days out,
696
00:28:57.700 --> 00:29:00.080
we'll issue tropical storm hurricane watches.
697
00:29:00.080 --> 00:29:01.100
And at that point,
698
00:29:01.100 --> 00:29:03.590
we start issuing those advisories every three hours.
699
00:29:03.590 --> 00:29:04.810
Intermediates every three hours,
700
00:29:04.810 --> 00:29:06.453
and the full package, every six.
701
00:29:07.410 --> 00:29:08.369
Within that two day timeframe,
702
00:29:08.369 --> 00:29:11.580
we within, typically we'll issue the,
703
00:29:11.580 --> 00:29:14.747
if he's going to be threatening land,
704
00:29:14.747 --> 00:29:17.180
hurricane warnings, local statements.
705
00:29:17.180 --> 00:29:19.220
The local weather forecast office
706
00:29:19.220 --> 00:29:21.797
will start issuing their products as well.
707
00:29:21.797 --> 00:29:24.400
We spell out, with a little bit more clarity,
708
00:29:24.400 --> 00:29:26.380
the impacts of timing,
709
00:29:26.380 --> 00:29:28.430
everything as far as when things
710
00:29:28.430 --> 00:29:30.763
could be expected to occur in your area.
711
00:29:32.250 --> 00:29:33.720
Graphically speaking,
712
00:29:33.720 --> 00:29:35.460
this is classically what it would look like.
713
00:29:35.460 --> 00:29:36.590
Is the Cone of Uncertainty,
714
00:29:36.590 --> 00:29:38.040
as everyone likes to call it.
715
00:29:39.320 --> 00:29:41.580
So in this particular example,
716
00:29:41.580 --> 00:29:43.243
the northwest motion is expected,
717
00:29:43.243 --> 00:29:45.870
And then center, we approach the U.S.,
718
00:29:45.870 --> 00:29:48.237
in maybe a Monday or Tuesday timeframe,
719
00:29:48.237 --> 00:29:51.140
and additional strengthening is expected.
720
00:29:51.140 --> 00:29:53.150
'Cause you saw from the 'H' is a hurricane,
721
00:29:53.150 --> 00:29:56.080
'M' is a major hurricane, so it shows intensification.
722
00:29:56.080 --> 00:29:57.790
And here's a quick question,
723
00:29:57.790 --> 00:30:00.508
what you folks listening in,
724
00:30:00.508 --> 00:30:03.720
just because it's in this Cone of Uncertainty,
725
00:30:03.720 --> 00:30:06.223
does that mean you're outside of it, you're safe?
726
00:30:07.377 --> 00:30:08.977
Just ask yourself that question.
727
00:30:09.960 --> 00:30:11.450
The answer's no.
728
00:30:11.450 --> 00:30:13.160
Two thirds of the time,
729
00:30:13.160 --> 00:30:15.780
the center of the storm stays inside that cone.
730
00:30:15.780 --> 00:30:17.420
It means one third of the time,
731
00:30:17.420 --> 00:30:19.300
the center, the actual center,
732
00:30:19.300 --> 00:30:21.480
would be over here, or over here,
733
00:30:21.480 --> 00:30:23.860
and that's a center of circulation.
734
00:30:23.860 --> 00:30:26.660
So all the core threat, all the core winds might be,
735
00:30:26.660 --> 00:30:30.270
the center might be here on the edge a third of the time,
736
00:30:30.270 --> 00:30:32.290
and the wind, strongest winds are right here,
737
00:30:32.290 --> 00:30:33.490
outside the cone.
738
00:30:33.490 --> 00:30:35.990
So it's important to see if you're at the cone,
739
00:30:35.990 --> 00:30:38.390
or even near the cone to keep an eye on this.
740
00:30:38.390 --> 00:30:41.223
'Cause that cone can also shift as time goes by.
741
00:30:42.920 --> 00:30:44.320
So we show hurricane force,
742
00:30:44.320 --> 00:30:46.124
probably is kind of built
743
00:30:46.124 --> 00:30:47.730
in a little bit of that uncertainty.
744
00:30:47.730 --> 00:30:51.130
So we have showing probabilities here in yellow,
745
00:30:51.130 --> 00:30:52.980
is about a one in three chance
746
00:30:52.980 --> 00:30:55.070
of seeing hurricane force conditions
747
00:30:55.070 --> 00:30:56.793
at any of these locations.
748
00:30:58.000 --> 00:31:02.330
And we can combine these wind speed probabilities
749
00:31:02.330 --> 00:31:03.670
with a time of arrival.
750
00:31:03.670 --> 00:31:05.765
We have two different types of time of arrival.
751
00:31:05.765 --> 00:31:07.150
This one's called the Most Likely Arrival,
752
00:31:07.150 --> 00:31:09.800
and this helps in preparation for storms.
753
00:31:09.800 --> 00:31:11.910
And so you see like on Monday at 8:00 PM,
754
00:31:11.910 --> 00:31:13.670
is where the most likely time
755
00:31:13.670 --> 00:31:15.216
the tropical storm force winds
756
00:31:15.216 --> 00:31:16.290
will already be inland.
757
00:31:16.290 --> 00:31:18.161
So if you're doing preparation,
758
00:31:18.161 --> 00:31:20.150
and you're trying to put up shutters, things like that,
759
00:31:20.150 --> 00:31:21.787
you don't want to be doing those
760
00:31:21.787 --> 00:31:23.286
with there's tropical storm conditions.
761
00:31:23.286 --> 00:31:24.460
So it kind of gives you an idea,
762
00:31:24.460 --> 00:31:27.190
is when your preparation should be completed by,
763
00:31:27.190 --> 00:31:29.960
when you're preparing for the storm's arrival.
764
00:31:29.960 --> 00:31:31.663
If you have a lower threshold,
765
00:31:31.663 --> 00:31:34.950
'earliest reasonable' might be a good way to plan,
766
00:31:34.950 --> 00:31:37.011
because assume it's going to go faster.
767
00:31:37.011 --> 00:31:39.020
And so by maybe Monday 8:00 AM,
768
00:31:39.020 --> 00:31:40.960
if you're trying to plan along the coastline here,
769
00:31:40.960 --> 00:31:42.640
that may be safe time to make sure you have
770
00:31:42.640 --> 00:31:43.930
all your preparations complete.
771
00:31:43.930 --> 00:31:45.580
Maybe you have a lot more work to be done.
772
00:31:45.580 --> 00:31:48.250
Maybe have to take a ship out of a port.
773
00:31:48.250 --> 00:31:49.852
You know, those kinds of things,
774
00:31:49.852 --> 00:31:51.840
you have different factors, different thresholds,
775
00:31:51.840 --> 00:31:54.590
for everybody depending on what their preparations are.
776
00:31:55.863 --> 00:31:58.260
For those of you that lived in that area,
777
00:31:58.260 --> 00:31:59.690
when Hugo went through,
778
00:31:59.690 --> 00:32:01.530
here's the examples for the key messages.
779
00:32:01.530 --> 00:32:04.930
So we have, when a storm is going to be threatening an area,
780
00:32:04.930 --> 00:32:06.930
we will write up these key messages
781
00:32:06.930 --> 00:32:10.263
to try to show what the main impacts are going to be.
782
00:32:10.263 --> 00:32:12.520
In this particular case, we're trying to explain,
783
00:32:12.520 --> 00:32:14.220
is going to be a major hurricane.
784
00:32:14.220 --> 00:32:16.750
The timing, we tell the impacts are going to be
785
00:32:16.750 --> 00:32:19.030
strong winds in a dangerous surge,
786
00:32:19.030 --> 00:32:21.679
from the coast, South Carolina, North Carolina.
787
00:32:21.679 --> 00:32:25.301
But we also mention it's too soon to determine
788
00:32:25.301 --> 00:32:27.693
the location, timing, magnitude.
789
00:32:28.580 --> 00:32:30.780
So we urge everybody to keep monitoring
790
00:32:30.780 --> 00:32:32.880
their local officials and listen to them,
791
00:32:32.880 --> 00:32:34.806
as far as evacuation advice.
792
00:32:34.806 --> 00:32:38.101
We talk about risk of damaging and wind rainfall.
793
00:32:38.101 --> 00:32:39.723
We talk about flooding.
794
00:32:40.853 --> 00:32:43.800
So if flooding is going to be like,
795
00:32:43.800 --> 00:32:45.245
it's gonna be slow moving,
796
00:32:45.245 --> 00:32:47.317
and floodings going to be a really big issue,
797
00:32:47.317 --> 00:32:50.560
we're gonna really highlight that in these statements here.
798
00:32:50.560 --> 00:32:52.750
And lastly, we talked about large swells,
799
00:32:52.750 --> 00:32:54.410
because not necessarily because
800
00:32:54.410 --> 00:32:55.710
you're in the direct path of these storms,
801
00:32:55.710 --> 00:32:57.400
but we're talking about Bermuda,
802
00:32:57.400 --> 00:32:58.780
portions of the East Coast through mid-week,
803
00:32:58.780 --> 00:33:01.610
that might even be directly impacted by the storm.
804
00:33:01.610 --> 00:33:02.670
We had storms last year,
805
00:33:02.670 --> 00:33:05.440
that several hundred miles off shore,
806
00:33:05.440 --> 00:33:07.450
that there's still multiple fatalities
807
00:33:07.450 --> 00:33:10.370
along the Eastern United States due to the swell,
808
00:33:10.370 --> 00:33:12.650
that caused these rip currents.
809
00:33:12.650 --> 00:33:14.910
That enhanced the rip currents
810
00:33:14.910 --> 00:33:16.325
combined with the local effects.
811
00:33:16.325 --> 00:33:19.193
And so they can be deadly without even reaching land.
812
00:33:21.020 --> 00:33:22.708
So the inland winds, right?
813
00:33:22.708 --> 00:33:24.520
Here's an example from Hurricane Hugo.
814
00:33:24.520 --> 00:33:27.340
The wind swath on the, on the upper right-hand screen here,
815
00:33:27.340 --> 00:33:29.088
shows how strong the winds penetrated inland.
816
00:33:29.088 --> 00:33:30.597
It's hard to kind of tell,
817
00:33:30.597 --> 00:33:34.080
if you look closely the green 100 mile per hour plus,
818
00:33:34.080 --> 00:33:36.510
penetrated a fairly decent amount inland
819
00:33:36.510 --> 00:33:38.290
here along its landfall.
820
00:33:38.290 --> 00:33:39.510
And then of course you had the winds
821
00:33:39.510 --> 00:33:41.683
decreasing as it moves inland,
822
00:33:41.683 --> 00:33:43.970
but there was still quite a bit of strong winds,
823
00:33:43.970 --> 00:33:45.758
a large swath of damage that occurred
824
00:33:45.758 --> 00:33:47.756
as the storm moved in.
825
00:33:47.756 --> 00:33:50.733
Still a CAT-1 as it reached Charlotte, North Carolina.
826
00:33:51.744 --> 00:33:53.690
Folks, a lot of you that probably
827
00:33:53.690 --> 00:33:55.546
went through Isaias last year,
828
00:33:55.546 --> 00:33:59.890
could probably appreciate how a category one hurricane
829
00:33:59.890 --> 00:34:03.910
making landfall was still a strong tropical storm
830
00:34:03.910 --> 00:34:05.860
as it went past New York.
831
00:34:05.860 --> 00:34:08.670
It still had a little bit of dynamic
832
00:34:08.670 --> 00:34:10.410
interaction with a trough.
833
00:34:10.410 --> 00:34:11.590
And there's still a little bit
834
00:34:11.590 --> 00:34:13.477
of source of warm waters there,
835
00:34:13.477 --> 00:34:17.450
that part of circulation was feeding off the East Coast.
836
00:34:17.450 --> 00:34:19.275
So it maintained a large,
837
00:34:19.275 --> 00:34:21.480
large amount of its circulation
838
00:34:21.480 --> 00:34:23.560
as it moved several states last year.
839
00:34:23.560 --> 00:34:27.070
And it caused a swath of damage all the way from
840
00:34:27.070 --> 00:34:31.403
South Carolina, even into Vermont and New Hampshire.
841
00:34:32.330 --> 00:34:34.210
Power outages, all up and down the East Coast,
842
00:34:34.210 --> 00:34:37.418
from one weak hurricane.
843
00:34:37.418 --> 00:34:40.200
The category ones can be very potent
844
00:34:40.200 --> 00:34:42.213
and it can cause a lot of damage,
845
00:34:42.213 --> 00:34:43.770
and cause quite a bit of fatalities.
846
00:34:43.770 --> 00:34:47.350
It doesn't take a CAT-5 to necessarily cause any fatalities.
847
00:34:47.350 --> 00:34:49.180
Some of the most devastating storms
848
00:34:49.180 --> 00:34:51.820
are actually going to be the weak ones.
849
00:34:51.820 --> 00:34:54.705
So I want to go with this question.
850
00:34:54.705 --> 00:34:55.640
We're gonna get more local for you folks,
851
00:34:55.640 --> 00:34:58.084
how many tropical storms were stronger?
852
00:34:58.084 --> 00:34:59.180
So, I'm gonna probably have to explain
853
00:34:59.180 --> 00:35:01.240
this question a little bit.
854
00:35:01.240 --> 00:35:04.660
If let's say, anywhere from South Carolina to New York,
855
00:35:04.660 --> 00:35:07.660
how many tropical storms to hurricanes
856
00:35:07.660 --> 00:35:09.303
have tracked across that area?
857
00:35:09.303 --> 00:35:11.337
Doesn't have to mean it made landfall in that area,
858
00:35:11.337 --> 00:35:14.000
but it's tracked across that region,
859
00:35:14.000 --> 00:35:16.633
and in our recorded history.
860
00:35:18.170 --> 00:35:19.830
Okay, the poll is open
861
00:35:19.830 --> 00:35:21.453
and we have people voting.
862
00:35:23.590 --> 00:35:25.300
So let's see what their answer is.
863
00:35:25.300 --> 00:35:28.070
I will let the audience know I got this one wrong
864
00:35:28.070 --> 00:35:30.860
when we went through it before, so...
865
00:35:30.860 --> 00:35:32.310
but it looks like everybody's
866
00:35:33.149 --> 00:35:36.173
getting it more correctly than I did.
867
00:35:37.410 --> 00:35:39.810
All right. Few more seconds.
868
00:35:39.810 --> 00:35:42.083
We've about 70% have voted.
869
00:35:51.860 --> 00:35:54.020
Okay, it looks like the voting has pretty much
870
00:35:54.020 --> 00:35:55.356
slowed down or stopped.
871
00:35:55.356 --> 00:35:57.140
I'm gonna close the poll
872
00:35:58.160 --> 00:35:59.630
and share the results.
873
00:35:59.630 --> 00:36:01.903
It looks like most people,
874
00:36:03.014 --> 00:36:06.677
45% say 322, 24%--
875
00:36:06.677 --> 00:36:09.590
It's pretty evenly split between 411 and 222.
876
00:36:09.590 --> 00:36:13.330
24% for 411, and 25% for 222.
877
00:36:13.330 --> 00:36:15.290
And then 7% said 111.
878
00:36:16.928 --> 00:36:19.686
So was the percentage for 411?
879
00:36:19.686 --> 00:36:21.210
Uh, 24%.
880
00:36:21.210 --> 00:36:24.640
Okay, well those 24% are correct.
881
00:36:24.640 --> 00:36:28.244
We're going to go through a state-by-state breakdown here.
882
00:36:28.244 --> 00:36:30.790
South Carolina, 86 storms have crossed
883
00:36:30.790 --> 00:36:33.987
your area in recorded history.
884
00:36:33.987 --> 00:36:35.501
I think some of the oldest ones you
885
00:36:35.501 --> 00:36:37.461
see in here is an Unnamed 1882.
886
00:36:37.461 --> 00:36:40.367
So these storms could have crossed anywhere like,
887
00:36:40.367 --> 00:36:41.450
they could've made landfall in the Gulf of Mexico
888
00:36:41.450 --> 00:36:44.350
in the crossing the state, or made landfall in your state.
889
00:36:45.190 --> 00:36:47.750
Kinda to give you a perception of like,
890
00:36:47.750 --> 00:36:50.870
what the threat over time could be in your area.
891
00:36:50.870 --> 00:36:53.790
The red lines, that kind of magenta lines,
892
00:36:53.790 --> 00:36:57.490
those are major hurricanes that affected the area.
893
00:36:57.490 --> 00:37:00.640
And the green, the blue lines are tropical depressions,
894
00:37:00.640 --> 00:37:03.520
I believe, and green would be tropical storms,
895
00:37:03.520 --> 00:37:04.770
and yellow was hurricane.
896
00:37:06.506 --> 00:37:08.290
Moving North... 135, North Carolina.
897
00:37:08.290 --> 00:37:10.890
North Carolina sticks out there. It has the Cape.
898
00:37:10.890 --> 00:37:15.833
So a lot of storms graze that area quite a bit over time.
899
00:37:16.870 --> 00:37:18.923
Virginia, 69 storms.
900
00:37:20.598 --> 00:37:21.431
A lot of the time they were moving from,
901
00:37:21.431 --> 00:37:23.550
it's kind of a southwest to northeast direction.
902
00:37:23.550 --> 00:37:25.909
They're getting, they're accelerating.
903
00:37:25.909 --> 00:37:27.990
Isaias, last year is a good example.
904
00:37:27.990 --> 00:37:30.100
It's right up there where this path was
905
00:37:30.100 --> 00:37:33.182
across the eastern portion of Virginia.
906
00:37:33.182 --> 00:37:34.015
Maryland's, 38.
907
00:37:35.670 --> 00:37:37.243
Delaware, 15.
908
00:37:38.430 --> 00:37:40.990
New Jersey, 23.
909
00:37:40.990 --> 00:37:41.980
And again, New York,
910
00:37:41.980 --> 00:37:45.183
'cause it has Long Island there, it kinda sticks out.
911
00:37:46.857 --> 00:37:48.720
You get hit by 45 in history.
912
00:37:48.720 --> 00:37:51.370
And some of those have been pretty strong storms as well,
913
00:37:51.370 --> 00:37:53.120
especially in the Long Island area.
914
00:37:56.240 --> 00:38:00.879
So here's a montage of last year's, season, record season.
915
00:38:00.879 --> 00:38:03.283
Hopefully that's not the case this year.
916
00:38:04.170 --> 00:38:06.740
What I'd like to convey about hurricane preparedness,
917
00:38:06.740 --> 00:38:08.390
here's a link actually at the top
918
00:38:09.260 --> 00:38:10.500
to the hurricane preparedness.
919
00:38:10.500 --> 00:38:13.770
It's, I just added this, so it's not on the PDF.
920
00:38:13.770 --> 00:38:15.639
But it's hurricane preparedness week is next week.
921
00:38:15.639 --> 00:38:18.280
There's a lot of good resources on there.
922
00:38:18.280 --> 00:38:19.783
It'll also go to your local,
923
00:38:19.783 --> 00:38:23.330
there's stuff usually offered in localities,
924
00:38:23.330 --> 00:38:25.470
as far as like what your evacuation information is.
925
00:38:25.470 --> 00:38:27.242
We're actually talking about that
926
00:38:27.242 --> 00:38:28.920
before this webinar started.
927
00:38:28.920 --> 00:38:32.273
You know, everybody, if you lived in a vulnerable area,
928
00:38:32.273 --> 00:38:34.170
that has an evacuation zone,
929
00:38:34.170 --> 00:38:35.950
it's typically because of surge.
930
00:38:35.950 --> 00:38:39.602
Know what zone you're in, and know how to prepare,
931
00:38:39.602 --> 00:38:43.530
and have all your stuff prepared now rather than later.
932
00:38:43.530 --> 00:38:45.750
It's always a good rule of thumb.
933
00:38:45.750 --> 00:38:47.500
I know that one question that's probably gonna be asked is,
934
00:38:47.500 --> 00:38:49.200
how busy this hurricane season is gonna be.
935
00:38:49.200 --> 00:38:52.655
I'm gonna answer that before I field other questions.
936
00:38:52.655 --> 00:38:55.800
We don't have the number yet from NOAA,
937
00:38:55.800 --> 00:38:57.220
as far as how busy it is.
938
00:38:57.220 --> 00:38:59.920
I don't think it's going to be as high as last year's
939
00:38:59.920 --> 00:39:02.570
numbers that we actually saw. That was a record year.
940
00:39:03.470 --> 00:39:05.439
But even if, if you know,
941
00:39:05.439 --> 00:39:08.123
it might be forecasted to be above normal,
942
00:39:09.270 --> 00:39:11.480
even if like in the future years,
943
00:39:11.480 --> 00:39:13.570
if it's forecast to be below normal,
944
00:39:13.570 --> 00:39:15.393
per se like down the road,
945
00:39:16.702 --> 00:39:19.052
it's all a matter of perspective
946
00:39:19.052 --> 00:39:21.863
of folks in where you live.
947
00:39:23.738 --> 00:39:26.470
Last year, busiest year on record.
948
00:39:26.470 --> 00:39:30.890
If I lived in central Florida, it felt pretty good.
949
00:39:30.890 --> 00:39:33.660
Didn't really get hit by a whole lot of stuff.
950
00:39:33.660 --> 00:39:36.340
If you lived in western Louisiana, not so much,
951
00:39:36.340 --> 00:39:38.283
you got hit by multiple hurricanes.
952
00:39:39.982 --> 00:39:41.830
A quiet year in 1992.
953
00:39:41.830 --> 00:39:45.320
Very much below normal activity.
954
00:39:45.320 --> 00:39:46.350
If you lived in south Florida,
955
00:39:46.350 --> 00:39:47.970
you will never forget if you lived
956
00:39:47.970 --> 00:39:49.860
through Hurricane Andrew,
957
00:39:49.860 --> 00:39:50.693
that was a category five.
958
00:39:50.693 --> 00:39:52.000
So it's very storm dependent.
959
00:39:52.000 --> 00:39:53.980
It's very dependent on what region you are,
960
00:39:53.980 --> 00:39:57.190
and where you are when these storms are, are developing.
961
00:39:57.190 --> 00:39:59.210
The quietest season could have the right ingredients
962
00:39:59.210 --> 00:40:00.540
and the right stream flow come together
963
00:40:00.540 --> 00:40:03.850
to make that season the worst season you've ever remembered.
964
00:40:03.850 --> 00:40:06.098
So you always have to repair it every year,
965
00:40:06.098 --> 00:40:08.100
no matter what the level of activity,
966
00:40:08.100 --> 00:40:09.800
generally speaking is going to be.
967
00:40:11.116 --> 00:40:14.116
With that I'll field whatever questions that y'all may have.
968
00:40:39.576 --> 00:40:40.910
All right. Sorry about that.
969
00:40:40.910 --> 00:40:43.860
Though, we have a lot of great questions that have come in.
970
00:40:44.760 --> 00:40:46.000
Somebody wanted to know why there
971
00:40:46.000 --> 00:40:48.570
were two storms named, Melissa.
972
00:40:48.570 --> 00:40:50.683
Do storm names get reused?
973
00:40:51.710 --> 00:40:54.105
Yes. It depends.
974
00:40:54.105 --> 00:40:58.350
Some names get retired if they cause enough devastation,
975
00:40:58.350 --> 00:40:59.857
those are voted on each year
976
00:40:59.857 --> 00:41:02.390
by the World Meteorological Organization.
977
00:41:02.390 --> 00:41:04.960
Actually, that group of people is also
978
00:41:04.960 --> 00:41:08.190
what comes up with the list of names.
979
00:41:08.190 --> 00:41:09.790
So yeah, Melissa might've formed
980
00:41:10.790 --> 00:41:13.683
and never had any major impacts,
981
00:41:15.010 --> 00:41:16.120
or minor impacts.
982
00:41:16.120 --> 00:41:19.252
And if that's the case, they will recycle the name
983
00:41:19.252 --> 00:41:21.510
every several years and use it again.
984
00:41:21.510 --> 00:41:22.360
Okay.
985
00:41:24.460 --> 00:41:26.180
All right.
986
00:41:26.180 --> 00:41:29.430
What would you say is the most overlooked
987
00:41:29.430 --> 00:41:31.023
hurricane prep tip?
988
00:41:32.440 --> 00:41:33.840
Hurricane prep tip?
989
00:41:35.370 --> 00:41:36.870
From my experience,
990
00:41:36.870 --> 00:41:39.410
from my own hurricane preparations is...
991
00:41:43.363 --> 00:41:45.083
waiting too long to do things.
992
00:41:46.140 --> 00:41:50.010
I will get my supplies all together,
993
00:41:50.010 --> 00:41:51.633
probably in the next few weeks,
994
00:41:52.710 --> 00:41:54.670
and I'll just hold onto them.
995
00:41:54.670 --> 00:41:57.653
And so what I'll do, is I'll have my bottled water,
996
00:41:58.700 --> 00:42:02.330
I'll have gas for the generator, that'll all be here.
997
00:42:02.330 --> 00:42:05.833
Because if you have a storm, that's like,
998
00:42:05.833 --> 00:42:07.810
might be threatening an area,
999
00:42:07.810 --> 00:42:09.854
if you're lucky enough,
1000
00:42:09.854 --> 00:42:11.318
it might be the first time a storm
1001
00:42:11.318 --> 00:42:12.151
has threatened the region recently.
1002
00:42:12.151 --> 00:42:14.930
And it's been, it's still several days out,
1003
00:42:14.930 --> 00:42:16.680
and you can get to the gas station.
1004
00:42:17.620 --> 00:42:21.610
If you wait too long, and words on the street, good luck.
1005
00:42:21.610 --> 00:42:25.457
We've had storms threatened down here and there's no gas.
1006
00:42:25.457 --> 00:42:28.960
Or you're waiting very long time for gas.
1007
00:42:28.960 --> 00:42:32.023
And it just becomes an absolute obsolete commodity.
1008
00:42:33.470 --> 00:42:35.390
Water is the same way.
1009
00:42:35.390 --> 00:42:37.720
Certain goods on store shelves are the same way.
1010
00:42:37.720 --> 00:42:40.690
You just don't want to wait until that rush
1011
00:42:40.690 --> 00:42:41.990
to get all those supplies.
1012
00:42:46.030 --> 00:42:47.330
Great. Thank you.
1013
00:42:51.480 --> 00:42:53.660
I have another question here.
1014
00:42:53.660 --> 00:42:56.360
Cause you mentioned for Hurricane Hugo,
1015
00:42:56.360 --> 00:42:59.154
you were preparing Bermuda.
1016
00:42:59.154 --> 00:43:03.943
What does working with other countries look like for you?
1017
00:43:04.830 --> 00:43:07.890
Okay. It actually varies from country to country.
1018
00:43:07.890 --> 00:43:11.670
Bermuda last year, for example, we had Hurricane Paulette.
1019
00:43:11.670 --> 00:43:14.040
So we set up actually video webinars
1020
00:43:14.040 --> 00:43:15.390
with them of some of their,
1021
00:43:17.031 --> 00:43:18.923
some of their staff,
1022
00:43:18.923 --> 00:43:23.923
that were trying to handle some of the preparations there.
1023
00:43:24.120 --> 00:43:26.550
So we talked to them a couple of times a day
1024
00:43:26.550 --> 00:43:29.082
and say, "Okay, here's the deal. Here's what's going on.
1025
00:43:29.082 --> 00:43:31.376
Here's some of the uncertainties we're talking about."
1026
00:43:31.376 --> 00:43:33.690
And so we had kind of a teleconference, kind of like this,
1027
00:43:33.690 --> 00:43:35.759
where they could ask questions.
1028
00:43:35.759 --> 00:43:38.940
There's other locations that we might just,
1029
00:43:38.940 --> 00:43:40.093
it might phone call.
1030
00:43:41.120 --> 00:43:44.140
It's up to the countries themselves,
1031
00:43:44.140 --> 00:43:48.100
whether or not to issue a hurricane watch or warning.
1032
00:43:48.100 --> 00:43:50.390
So we asked, we say, "Here's a situation.
1033
00:43:50.390 --> 00:43:53.132
Do you want warnings put up?"
1034
00:43:53.132 --> 00:43:54.180
And so they will say, "Yes, we want it."
1035
00:43:54.180 --> 00:43:56.130
Or they'll call us and say, "Hey, we want it."
1036
00:43:56.130 --> 00:43:57.390
So a lot of the,
1037
00:43:57.390 --> 00:43:59.440
most of these conversations are by phone.
1038
00:44:00.950 --> 00:44:02.950
And so we have some challenges that we face,
1039
00:44:02.950 --> 00:44:04.454
like, for example,
1040
00:44:04.454 --> 00:44:05.590
if you were talking to Mexico,
1041
00:44:05.590 --> 00:44:08.174
or one of the Spanish speaking countries,
1042
00:44:08.174 --> 00:44:10.110
one of our Spanish speakers in the office
1043
00:44:10.110 --> 00:44:13.710
will get on the line and talk to, and coordinate with them,
1044
00:44:13.710 --> 00:44:16.110
what the watch warning situation is going to be.
1045
00:44:17.640 --> 00:44:19.830
Okay. And another question came in,
1046
00:44:19.830 --> 00:44:20.950
it's kind of a little long one.
1047
00:44:20.950 --> 00:44:23.660
So I'm going to read what the person wrote,
1048
00:44:23.660 --> 00:44:26.400
"Isaias last year produced hurricane force wind gusts,
1049
00:44:26.400 --> 00:44:28.435
and much damage over Long Island,
1050
00:44:28.435 --> 00:44:31.410
even though it had moved inland over North Carolina
1051
00:44:31.410 --> 00:44:35.230
past a hundred miles west of L.I.,
1052
00:44:35.230 --> 00:44:39.343
and spent many over land before affecting L.I., Long Island.
1053
00:44:41.132 --> 00:44:42.250
Were there reasons--
1054
00:44:42.250 --> 00:44:45.240
where there unusual reasons for why this type of storm
1055
00:44:45.240 --> 00:44:48.263
remained so long for a long period of time over land?
1056
00:44:49.150 --> 00:44:50.290
Yes.
1057
00:44:50.290 --> 00:44:54.700
So you Isaias had a fairly decent sized wind field
1058
00:44:54.700 --> 00:44:56.570
and some of those,
1059
00:44:56.570 --> 00:44:58.200
some of the inflow into the storm
1060
00:44:58.200 --> 00:45:00.047
was still over the eastern--
1061
00:45:01.070 --> 00:45:02.030
just off the East Coast.
1062
00:45:02.030 --> 00:45:05.687
So over some of the warm waters of the Gulf Stream,
1063
00:45:05.687 --> 00:45:07.840
of the Western Atlantic for a little bit after landfall,
1064
00:45:07.840 --> 00:45:10.970
also the reason Isaias was accelerating,
1065
00:45:10.970 --> 00:45:12.610
was that it was beginning to interact
1066
00:45:12.610 --> 00:45:16.550
with an upper level trough to the northwest of it.
1067
00:45:16.550 --> 00:45:19.283
And when it has that kind of interaction, a lot of times,
1068
00:45:19.283 --> 00:45:20.950
those storms can, can begin to transition.
1069
00:45:20.950 --> 00:45:23.490
It was, it was slowly transitioning to what we call,
1070
00:45:23.490 --> 00:45:25.297
an extra tropical cyclone.
1071
00:45:25.297 --> 00:45:26.772
And when they do that,
1072
00:45:26.772 --> 00:45:28.300
the surface winds don't necessarily
1073
00:45:28.300 --> 00:45:30.240
diminish as fast as they typically would
1074
00:45:30.240 --> 00:45:33.297
if it was just a classic strong tropical cyclone
1075
00:45:33.297 --> 00:45:35.765
and with friction slowing down the winds.
1076
00:45:35.765 --> 00:45:40.147
So what happens is the winds aloft start to stay strong,
1077
00:45:40.147 --> 00:45:42.554
and those can mix down with the storm,
1078
00:45:42.554 --> 00:45:45.000
as it continually moves north.
1079
00:45:45.000 --> 00:45:47.240
Also as a factor, you'll see,
1080
00:45:47.240 --> 00:45:49.570
even if you saw an image of the wind swath,
1081
00:45:49.570 --> 00:45:52.085
most of the damage was off to the right.
1082
00:45:52.085 --> 00:45:53.062
It was accelerating.
1083
00:45:53.062 --> 00:45:55.243
So it was moving about 25 miles per hour.
1084
00:45:56.719 --> 00:45:59.370
And so you add that to the winds
1085
00:45:59.370 --> 00:46:00.970
when it's moving that direction.
1086
00:46:02.146 --> 00:46:04.054
So if you're on the right hand side of the storm,
1087
00:46:04.054 --> 00:46:05.405
you're gonna get these much stronger winds
1088
00:46:05.405 --> 00:46:06.531
off to the right-hand side.
1089
00:46:06.531 --> 00:46:07.840
So all those are coming to factor
1090
00:46:07.840 --> 00:46:10.230
when it moved past the New York area,
1091
00:46:10.230 --> 00:46:11.920
and in through Virginia and Maryland,
1092
00:46:11.920 --> 00:46:13.820
and every everywhere up there as well.
1093
00:46:14.830 --> 00:46:16.240
What was interesting about Isaias,
1094
00:46:16.240 --> 00:46:19.253
is it is a very prolific tornado maker.
1095
00:46:20.400 --> 00:46:22.643
It spawned 39 tornadoes.
1096
00:46:23.660 --> 00:46:25.670
So there's, and all the way up,
1097
00:46:25.670 --> 00:46:27.000
all the way up through,
1098
00:46:27.000 --> 00:46:29.505
in Connecticut was the farthest north, they had one,
1099
00:46:29.505 --> 00:46:31.100
but in New York had, I think had one as well.
1100
00:46:31.100 --> 00:46:34.620
So because of that interaction with the upper trough
1101
00:46:34.620 --> 00:46:36.623
helped to spawn some of those tornadoes.
1102
00:46:38.600 --> 00:46:39.450
Okay.
1103
00:46:40.380 --> 00:46:42.450
Mark, do you have another question?
1104
00:46:42.450 --> 00:46:45.950
I'm actually got a really interesting question.
1105
00:46:45.950 --> 00:46:48.510
Is there a way to reduce the intensity
1106
00:46:48.510 --> 00:46:51.663
of a hurricane using man-made intervention?
1107
00:46:52.920 --> 00:46:55.220
I haven't read through any studies about it.
1108
00:46:55.220 --> 00:46:56.097
So I don't--
1109
00:46:57.280 --> 00:46:59.530
Personally, I don't know of any way to do it.
1110
00:47:01.470 --> 00:47:04.141
Fair enough. I was just super curious myself.
1111
00:47:04.141 --> 00:47:05.690
(Mark laughs)
1112
00:47:05.690 --> 00:47:08.633
And I think if we knew a way, we'd probably try it.
1113
00:47:09.970 --> 00:47:10.803
Right!
1114
00:47:10.803 --> 00:47:12.858
Here's another question, I think maybe,
1115
00:47:12.858 --> 00:47:15.340
is a little more reasonable to answer but...
1116
00:47:15.340 --> 00:47:18.150
What about storms on the Pacific coast?
1117
00:47:18.150 --> 00:47:21.493
How is that tracked like it is on the East Coast?
1118
00:47:23.070 --> 00:47:26.040
So if we're talking about the Pacific coast
1119
00:47:26.040 --> 00:47:28.048
of the United States and Mexico,
1120
00:47:28.048 --> 00:47:30.710
the Hurricane Center covers that area as well.
1121
00:47:30.710 --> 00:47:34.950
We cover out the 140 west, at the hurricane center in Miami.
1122
00:47:34.950 --> 00:47:37.230
So anything that forms in that area,
1123
00:47:37.230 --> 00:47:39.020
and is tracking in that area,
1124
00:47:39.020 --> 00:47:41.760
we'll do the same process we do for the Atlantic.
1125
00:47:41.760 --> 00:47:44.550
So we'll do the track and intensity radius forecasts,
1126
00:47:44.550 --> 00:47:45.630
do the analysis of those.
1127
00:47:45.630 --> 00:47:48.700
We'll do tropical weather outlooks for those areas too.
1128
00:47:48.700 --> 00:47:50.875
Same goes with the watches and warnings.
1129
00:47:50.875 --> 00:47:52.256
If something's gonna hit Baja, California,
1130
00:47:52.256 --> 00:47:55.130
we'll talk to Mexico, and coordinate with them,
1131
00:47:55.130 --> 00:47:57.370
what they want to do about that.
1132
00:47:57.370 --> 00:47:59.730
Fortunately, we rarely, if ever,
1133
00:47:59.730 --> 00:48:02.160
have to worry about Southern California.
1134
00:48:02.160 --> 00:48:04.430
Typically storms are dying up before they reach there.
1135
00:48:04.430 --> 00:48:07.943
We have things in place in case they do reach there.
1136
00:48:09.320 --> 00:48:11.270
And if, once it crosses 140 west,
1137
00:48:11.270 --> 00:48:15.758
that becomes Hawaii, Central Pacific Hurricane Center,
1138
00:48:15.758 --> 00:48:16.840
which is in Hawaii.
1139
00:48:16.840 --> 00:48:19.623
They handle the forecast at that point in time.
1140
00:48:20.460 --> 00:48:23.010
And if you go further, even further west,
1141
00:48:23.010 --> 00:48:24.540
a joint type of warning center
1142
00:48:25.916 --> 00:48:27.516
handles the storms far out west.
1143
00:48:28.600 --> 00:48:29.450
Okay.
1144
00:48:30.297 --> 00:48:31.910
Another question we have is can Andy speak
1145
00:48:31.910 --> 00:48:36.776
to the role of climate change and hurricane formation,
1146
00:48:36.776 --> 00:48:39.710
and hurricane intensity?
1147
00:48:39.710 --> 00:48:42.020
That's a study that's still undergoing,
1148
00:48:42.020 --> 00:48:44.320
it's an undergoing study right now.
1149
00:48:44.320 --> 00:48:46.580
There's still data being collected.
1150
00:48:46.580 --> 00:48:48.610
There's still data being looked at.
1151
00:48:48.610 --> 00:48:50.420
There's been, I think a couple of articles that came out,
1152
00:48:50.420 --> 00:48:52.123
that maybe suggested that,
1153
00:48:53.114 --> 00:48:54.553
what was it that they get?
1154
00:48:55.648 --> 00:48:57.564
It could cause storms to be...
1155
00:48:57.564 --> 00:49:00.660
What was it, was it slower moving?
1156
00:49:00.660 --> 00:49:02.290
There's different, different aspects.
1157
00:49:02.290 --> 00:49:04.410
A lot of it is statistically driven.
1158
00:49:04.410 --> 00:49:06.930
They try to determine over recent years, what's,
1159
00:49:06.930 --> 00:49:09.130
how the hurricanes have changed.
1160
00:49:09.130 --> 00:49:12.600
And so I think there was one stat that shows
1161
00:49:12.600 --> 00:49:14.090
there might them a moving a little slower,
1162
00:49:14.090 --> 00:49:16.490
therefore can cause heavier rainfall.
1163
00:49:16.490 --> 00:49:21.307
Which was an interesting aspect to think about.
1164
00:49:21.307 --> 00:49:23.560
So they're looking at the different,
1165
00:49:23.560 --> 00:49:25.620
they're looking at how strong the storms are,
1166
00:49:25.620 --> 00:49:28.790
how big the storms are, trends over time,
1167
00:49:28.790 --> 00:49:31.970
and trying to pick up on these trends
1168
00:49:31.970 --> 00:49:34.930
and how they could be connected back to climate.
1169
00:49:34.930 --> 00:49:38.732
It's not a very clear signal at this point in time.
1170
00:49:38.732 --> 00:49:40.480
I think one of the biggest challenges
1171
00:49:40.480 --> 00:49:43.310
is that there's not a lot of data, as far as like,
1172
00:49:43.310 --> 00:49:44.720
how many years of storms have been,
1173
00:49:44.720 --> 00:49:47.010
that we've been able to track.
1174
00:49:47.010 --> 00:49:48.570
One of the challenges faced when trying
1175
00:49:48.570 --> 00:49:52.100
to do those studies is the satellite era.
1176
00:49:52.100 --> 00:49:55.093
Satellite era is only several decades long,
1177
00:49:56.190 --> 00:49:59.560
and even so satellites had gotten better,
1178
00:49:59.560 --> 00:50:01.130
more higher resolution.
1179
00:50:01.130 --> 00:50:04.040
And so something that might've been out there in the middle
1180
00:50:04.040 --> 00:50:06.030
of the Atlantic, kind of obscure kind of uncertain,
1181
00:50:06.030 --> 00:50:07.680
whether or not it's a storm,
1182
00:50:07.680 --> 00:50:10.840
even 30 years ago with the high resolution satellite
1183
00:50:10.840 --> 00:50:13.936
and data we have, like scatterometer data, wind data.
1184
00:50:13.936 --> 00:50:15.930
We might say, "Oh, that's a storm."
1185
00:50:15.930 --> 00:50:19.600
To what 30 years ago, might not be able to figure that out,
1186
00:50:19.600 --> 00:50:22.270
and might not have ever been designated as a storm.
1187
00:50:22.270 --> 00:50:24.163
And so the challenge is,
1188
00:50:24.163 --> 00:50:26.660
some of this increase in storms
1189
00:50:26.660 --> 00:50:28.873
might because we're seeing them better.
1190
00:50:30.390 --> 00:50:33.130
Also, it has that intensity factor as well,
1191
00:50:33.130 --> 00:50:35.770
because if you have no data over the ocean,
1192
00:50:35.770 --> 00:50:37.702
and you're doing an estimate,
1193
00:50:37.702 --> 00:50:39.133
where if you have the actual data,
1194
00:50:39.133 --> 00:50:40.890
you might be able to hone in on the intensity.
1195
00:50:40.890 --> 00:50:44.360
So it's an undergoing process because we have to have enough
1196
00:50:45.402 --> 00:50:47.750
time to collect the data of the...
1197
00:50:47.750 --> 00:50:50.360
the more accurate data years that we've had of late,
1198
00:50:50.360 --> 00:50:53.363
and see if there's any actual trendable changes in that.
1199
00:50:55.000 --> 00:50:56.160
Okay. And Mark,
1200
00:50:56.160 --> 00:50:58.040
I think we have time for about one more question.
1201
00:50:58.040 --> 00:51:00.893
Do you have another question you want to pop out there?
1202
00:51:02.415 --> 00:51:05.080
Okay. This one's really good. I really like it.
1203
00:51:05.080 --> 00:51:07.730
How do you track the history of a storm,
1204
00:51:07.730 --> 00:51:10.538
or is there a way to track the history of a storm,
1205
00:51:10.538 --> 00:51:11.371
pre-satellite?
1206
00:51:13.580 --> 00:51:17.210
So, some of the old databases, these don't...
1207
00:51:17.210 --> 00:51:20.093
Pre-satellite, basically you have, if there was a buoy,
1208
00:51:21.086 --> 00:51:24.920
if there was a ship, or if it hit land,
1209
00:51:24.920 --> 00:51:28.360
I think a lot of the data going into the pre-satellite era
1210
00:51:28.360 --> 00:51:30.650
came from the word of mouth.
1211
00:51:30.650 --> 00:51:34.420
If it grazed an area of land that can be communicated,
1212
00:51:34.420 --> 00:51:36.870
how bad the conditions were at those pinpoints of land,
1213
00:51:36.870 --> 00:51:40.360
along wherever that storm might've been affecting,
1214
00:51:40.360 --> 00:51:44.243
but ships, the ships that were affected by it.
1215
00:51:46.020 --> 00:51:47.550
Unfortunately back before the satellite era,
1216
00:51:47.550 --> 00:51:49.381
they could still relay it,
1217
00:51:49.381 --> 00:51:52.250
before satellite era you still had methods to communicate.
1218
00:51:52.250 --> 00:51:54.050
So you can get information that way.
1219
00:51:54.900 --> 00:51:57.100
But before the satellite era was much more challenging.
1220
00:51:57.100 --> 00:52:00.555
And I remember reading some of the discussions
1221
00:52:00.555 --> 00:52:03.050
from pre-satellite era storms,
1222
00:52:03.050 --> 00:52:06.119
and they would allude to, you know,
1223
00:52:06.119 --> 00:52:08.480
they know there's a storm out there,
1224
00:52:08.480 --> 00:52:10.610
but not sure how strong,
1225
00:52:10.610 --> 00:52:11.640
but then, you know,
1226
00:52:11.640 --> 00:52:13.940
you were aware that there's something out there
1227
00:52:13.940 --> 00:52:16.110
and might be heading your way.
1228
00:52:16.110 --> 00:52:17.280
So that the big challenge,
1229
00:52:17.280 --> 00:52:19.620
as far as preparation is concerned,
1230
00:52:19.620 --> 00:52:21.630
and that's why you hear about, I think,
1231
00:52:21.630 --> 00:52:24.200
the Galveston storm back in the early 1900s...
1232
00:52:24.200 --> 00:52:27.480
It was hard to know it was coming,
1233
00:52:27.480 --> 00:52:32.480
till it's almost there, especially, if you're not sure.
1234
00:52:32.670 --> 00:52:34.600
You know, think about a Micheal situation.
1235
00:52:34.600 --> 00:52:37.974
Where there was a tropical storm two days prior,
1236
00:52:37.974 --> 00:52:42.974
and it was become a CAT-5 at landfall, unless you had a,
1237
00:52:43.034 --> 00:52:45.608
if you're lucky enough to have a ship in the Gulf of Mexico,
1238
00:52:45.608 --> 00:52:47.585
or people in north Mexico to relay information like,
1239
00:52:47.585 --> 00:52:48.770
"Hey, something's getting bad out here."
1240
00:52:48.770 --> 00:52:50.380
You wouldn't have much notice before something
1241
00:52:50.380 --> 00:52:52.063
like that would have made landfall.
1242
00:52:54.382 --> 00:52:55.330
Okay. Good questions.
1243
00:52:55.330 --> 00:52:56.690
Well, we're sorry if we weren't able
1244
00:52:56.690 --> 00:52:58.604
to get to your question,
1245
00:52:58.604 --> 00:53:00.410
but we will send all of the questions to Andy.
1246
00:53:00.410 --> 00:53:02.330
And so he can at least see the questions
1247
00:53:02.330 --> 00:53:03.530
that you were asking.
1248
00:53:03.530 --> 00:53:06.260
And if you want to ask Andy another question,
1249
00:53:06.260 --> 00:53:07.440
or if you feel like you just want
1250
00:53:07.440 --> 00:53:09.641
to get an answer directly from Andy,
1251
00:53:09.641 --> 00:53:11.930
you can also email him at his email address,
1252
00:53:11.930 --> 00:53:15.957 line:15%
there at the bottom of the screen, Andrew.Latto@noaa.gov.
1253
00:53:15.957 --> 00:53:19.100
And if you haven't downloaded Andy's bio in the chat box,
1254
00:53:19.100 --> 00:53:20.930
be sure to do so now,
1255
00:53:20.930 --> 00:53:23.100
because in the bio you'll find the various links
1256
00:53:23.100 --> 00:53:24.590
for the National Hurricane Center,
1257
00:53:24.590 --> 00:53:26.040
the hurricane tracking charts,
1258
00:53:26.040 --> 00:53:28.250
the hurricane preparedness week and more.
1259
00:53:28.250 --> 00:53:30.592
And if, and as I said, if we didn't get to your question,
1260
00:53:30.592 --> 00:53:32.960
you can email Andy or...
1261
00:53:35.360 --> 00:53:37.230
or email him directly.
1262
00:53:37.230 --> 00:53:42.160
Okay, and we wanted to do a pitch for hurricanes at home.
1263
00:53:42.160 --> 00:53:44.854
It's coming up and it says,
1264
00:53:44.854 --> 00:53:46.372
So if you're a teacher or just want
1265
00:53:46.372 --> 00:53:47.320
to learn more about hurricanes,
1266
00:53:47.320 --> 00:53:49.291
you can be sure to check out
1267
00:53:49.291 --> 00:53:50.750
the National Hurricane Season's upcoming webinars.
1268
00:53:50.750 --> 00:53:53.520
And they are presented both in English and Spanish.
1269
00:53:53.520 --> 00:53:56.550
And there is a handout in the chat with more information,
1270
00:53:56.550 --> 00:53:58.781
and the links for these registrations.
1271
00:53:58.781 --> 00:54:01.550
There is gonna be one at 4:00 PM
1272
00:54:01.550 --> 00:54:03.300
on Wednesday, May the 12th,
1273
00:54:03.300 --> 00:54:06.483
and another one in English at 5:00 PM on May 18th.
1274
00:54:07.321 --> 00:54:11.670
And then the Spanish one will be on May 13th at 4:00 PM.
1275
00:54:14.500 --> 00:54:16.822
Okay, and also be sure to check out
1276
00:54:16.822 --> 00:54:21.447
the NOAA Sea Chart webinar series.
1277
00:54:21.447 --> 00:54:25.653
Sorry, I had the wrong picture with the wrong...
1278
00:54:25.653 --> 00:54:26.832
No, this is correct. Sorry.
1279
00:54:26.832 --> 00:54:28.332
And the NOAA Sea Chart Webinar Series,
1280
00:54:28.332 --> 00:54:30.140
the link to the series is also in the chat box.
1281
00:54:30.140 --> 00:54:32.850
And this is for hurricane awareness webinars.
1282
00:54:32.850 --> 00:54:34.250
So you'll see, they have quite a few
1283
00:54:34.250 --> 00:54:36.013
of the really good ones coming up.
1284
00:54:37.920 --> 00:54:38.950
And then once captioned,
1285
00:54:38.950 --> 00:54:40.740
a video recording of this presentation
1286
00:54:40.740 --> 00:54:44.090
will be available on the sanctuary's webinar archive page.
1287
00:54:44.090 --> 00:54:47.150
Then that URL is at the top up there, but don't worry,
1288
00:54:47.150 --> 00:54:49.590
we're going to send you a link to it.
1289
00:54:49.590 --> 00:54:51.440
In addition, the webinar will be archived
1290
00:54:51.440 --> 00:54:53.250
on Monitor's National Marine Sanctuary.
1291
00:54:53.250 --> 00:54:56.343
You can click on the multimedia section of that
1292
00:54:56.343 --> 00:54:58.220
in the tool bar to access the webinar box.
1293
00:54:58.220 --> 00:55:00.709
You'll also find future webinars in that same section.
1294
00:55:00.709 --> 00:55:02.410
And as I said, don't worry,
1295
00:55:02.410 --> 00:55:06.040
we're gonna send all this information to you in an email,
1296
00:55:06.040 --> 00:55:07.933
once the recording is ready to view.
1297
00:55:09.960 --> 00:55:13.630
And on May 6th, that's on this coming Thursday at 4:00 PM,
1298
00:55:13.630 --> 00:55:16.410
Submerged North Carolina will present an educator workshop
1299
00:55:16.410 --> 00:55:19.470
on World War II off the North Carolina Coast,
1300
00:55:19.470 --> 00:55:21.540
and why this area is where the war
1301
00:55:21.540 --> 00:55:23.520
truly came home to America.
1302
00:55:23.520 --> 00:55:24.730
I'm gonna be the presenter,
1303
00:55:24.730 --> 00:55:26.650
and I will highlight the Battle of the Atlantic,
1304
00:55:26.650 --> 00:55:29.420
and show how to access free curriculum, photos, and more.
1305
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And although this webinar is aimed at educators,
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00:55:31.890 --> 00:55:33.693
all are welcome to attend.
1307
00:55:35.660 --> 00:55:38.930
And coming up on May the 11th at 1:00 PM,
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00:55:38.930 --> 00:55:40.530
we have on - Eastern time,
1309
00:55:40.530 --> 00:55:42.800
we have Dr. Sal Mercogliano,
1310
00:55:42.800 --> 00:55:45.920
Assistant Professor of History at Campbell University.
1311
00:55:45.920 --> 00:55:47.620
And you're going to learn how and why
1312
00:55:47.620 --> 00:55:48.760
the American East Coast
1313
00:55:48.760 --> 00:55:51.180
became a tragic strategic battlefield.
1314
00:55:51.180 --> 00:55:52.700
And the first five months after
1315
00:55:52.700 --> 00:55:54.420
the U S entered World War II.
1316
00:55:54.420 --> 00:55:57.425
You're gonna learn about the mistakes that men made,
1317
00:55:57.425 --> 00:55:58.520
and who made them,
1318
00:55:58.520 --> 00:55:59.400
and the solutions found to turn
1319
00:55:59.400 --> 00:56:01.303
the tide in the German U-boat war.
1320
00:56:03.390 --> 00:56:05.020
We have several others coming up,
1321
00:56:05.020 --> 00:56:08.320
in the Submerged North Carolina series, you can see there.
1322
00:56:08.320 --> 00:56:10.930
We have conservation of the USS Monitor Artifacts
1323
00:56:10.930 --> 00:56:12.110
with Will Hoffman.
1324
00:56:12.110 --> 00:56:14.750
We have the Lake Phelps Canoes with Tim Smith,
1325
00:56:14.750 --> 00:56:16.840
and then we have Engineering in the Classrooms
1326
00:56:16.840 --> 00:56:19.140
with ROVs, which I will present.
1327
00:56:19.140 --> 00:56:20.800
And then we have David Cranford,
1328
00:56:20.800 --> 00:56:21.820
who will be talking about
1329
00:56:21.820 --> 00:56:24.773
North Carolina Fish Weir Archeology Project.
1330
00:56:27.570 --> 00:56:29.090
Now, if you enjoyed this webinar,
1331
00:56:29.090 --> 00:56:30.290
be sure to check out others
1332
00:56:30.290 --> 00:56:32.710
in the National Marine Sanctuary Webinar Series
1333
00:56:32.710 --> 00:56:34.990
on May 20th at 6:00 PM.
1334
00:56:34.990 --> 00:56:36.480
You can join Jared Underwood,
1335
00:56:36.480 --> 00:56:39.110
US Fish and Wildlife Service Superintendent
1336
00:56:39.110 --> 00:56:41.507
for Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument
1337
00:56:41.507 --> 00:56:45.270
to learn how millions of sea birds use the remote atolls
1338
00:56:45.270 --> 00:56:47.390
and islands that are found around Hawaii
1339
00:56:47.390 --> 00:56:48.953
and the central Pacific ocean.
1340
00:56:51.640 --> 00:56:53.470
And lastly, as you exit the webinar,
1341
00:56:53.470 --> 00:56:56.570
there is a short survey for formal and informal educators.
1342
00:56:56.570 --> 00:56:59.400
If you are an educator, NOAA would really appreciate it,
1343
00:56:59.400 --> 00:57:00.760
if you would just take a minute or two,
1344
00:57:00.760 --> 00:57:01.760
to complete the survey.
1345
00:57:01.760 --> 00:57:04.420
I think there's five questions. So it's very short.
1346
00:57:04.420 --> 00:57:06.030
Your answers will help NOAA develop
1347
00:57:06.030 --> 00:57:07.920
future webinars to meet your needs,
1348
00:57:07.920 --> 00:57:09.760
and your participation is voluntary,
1349
00:57:09.760 --> 00:57:12.060
and your answers will be completely anonymous.
1350
00:57:15.070 --> 00:57:17.970
So we thank you for joining us once again.
1351
00:57:17.970 --> 00:57:20.260
And we thank Andy for a really great presentation,
1352
00:57:20.260 --> 00:57:21.140
very informative,
1353
00:57:21.140 --> 00:57:23.740
and just very timely with hurricane season coming up.
1354
00:57:23.740 --> 00:57:25.549
So thank you, Andy.
1355
00:57:25.549 --> 00:57:27.250
And thank you for taking the time to join us today.
1356
00:57:27.250 --> 00:57:30.280
And if you live in a hurricane prone area, get prepared!
1357
00:57:30.280 --> 00:57:33.030
Have a wonderful day, and this concludes the broadcast.