WEBVTT 1 00:00:01.181 --> 00:00:02.398 Right, well, good morning! 2 00:00:02.398 --> 00:00:03.544 Thank you for joining us today 3 00:00:03.544 --> 00:00:04.680 and welcome to Hurricane Hazards and Science, 4 00:00:04.680 --> 00:00:06.620 the National Hurricane Center's Role 5 00:00:06.620 --> 00:00:09.003 in Providing Life-Saving Information. 6 00:00:11.609 --> 00:00:14.760 I am Shannon Ricles, the Education and Outreach Coordinator 7 00:00:14.760 --> 00:00:16.530 for Monitor National Marine Sanctuary, 8 00:00:16.530 --> 00:00:18.370 and I'll be your host today. 9 00:00:18.370 --> 00:00:21.410 And joining us as my co-host is Mark Losavio, 10 00:00:21.410 --> 00:00:24.110 who is the Media and Outreach Coordinator for Monitor. 11 00:00:26.900 --> 00:00:29.490 And this presentation is brought to you 12 00:00:29.490 --> 00:00:32.123 by NOAA's Monitor National Marine Sanctuary, 13 00:00:32.990 --> 00:00:36.220 in collaboration with the North Carolina Office 14 00:00:36.220 --> 00:00:37.583 of State Archeology. 15 00:00:41.380 --> 00:00:43.410 Now partnering since 1975, 16 00:00:43.410 --> 00:00:45.040 NOAA and the state of North Carolina, 17 00:00:45.040 --> 00:00:47.270 work to research, honor, and protect the hallmarks 18 00:00:47.270 --> 00:00:50.700 of North Carolina's underwater cultural heritage Shipwrecks. 19 00:00:50.700 --> 00:00:52.290 Now these shipwrecks hold information 20 00:00:52.290 --> 00:00:54.070 about the ever-changing technologies, 21 00:00:54.070 --> 00:00:56.200 and cultural and physical landscapes. 22 00:00:56.200 --> 00:00:59.320 They serve as uniquely accessible underwater museums 23 00:00:59.320 --> 00:01:01.380 and a memorial to generations of mariners 24 00:01:02.618 --> 00:01:04.840 who lived, died, and worked and fought off our shores. 25 00:01:04.840 --> 00:01:06.990 This is one of the many webinars that we will be hosting 26 00:01:06.990 --> 00:01:09.430 in the coming months for this Submerged 27 00:01:09.430 --> 00:01:11.237 North Carolina webinars series, 28 00:01:11.237 --> 00:01:14.240 in collaboration with the North Carolina 29 00:01:14.240 --> 00:01:16.023 Office of State Archeology. 30 00:01:20.100 --> 00:01:22.840 So Monitor is just one of 14 national Marine sanctuaries, 31 00:01:22.840 --> 00:01:24.270 and two marine national monuments 32 00:01:24.270 --> 00:01:26.470 in the National Marine Sanctuary System. 33 00:01:26.470 --> 00:01:29.080 The system encompasses more than 600,000 square miles 34 00:01:29.080 --> 00:01:32.112 of marine and Great Lake waters from Washington State, 35 00:01:32.112 --> 00:01:34.690 to the Florida Keys, and from Lake Huron to American Samoa. 36 00:01:34.690 --> 00:01:36.210 Now, during the presentation, 37 00:01:36.210 --> 00:01:38.520 all attendees will be in listen only mode. 38 00:01:38.520 --> 00:01:40.600 You are welcome to type your questions 39 00:01:40.600 --> 00:01:42.820 into the question box for the presenter, 40 00:01:42.820 --> 00:01:44.330 at the bottom of the control panel 41 00:01:44.330 --> 00:01:46.190 on the right-hand side of your screen. 42 00:01:46.190 --> 00:01:48.240 This is the same area you can let us know 43 00:01:48.240 --> 00:01:50.320 about any technical issues you may be having, 44 00:01:50.320 --> 00:01:51.710 that we can help you with. 45 00:01:51.710 --> 00:01:54.920 We'll be monitoring incoming questions and technical issues, 46 00:01:54.920 --> 00:01:57.400 and we'll respond to them just as soon as we can. 47 00:01:57.400 --> 00:01:59.730 We are also recording the session and we'll share 48 00:01:59.730 --> 00:02:01.740 the recording with registered participants 49 00:02:01.740 --> 00:02:03.750 via the webinar archive page, 50 00:02:03.750 --> 00:02:07.810 and a URL for this webinar page will be provided 51 00:02:07.810 --> 00:02:09.663 at the end of the presentation. 52 00:02:12.410 --> 00:02:17.410 All right, so this morning we are welcoming, Andrew Latto, 53 00:02:17.480 --> 00:02:21.090 the Hurricane Specialist for the National Hurricane Center. 54 00:02:21.090 --> 00:02:24.040 So good morning, Andrew, and thank you for joining us. 55 00:02:24.040 --> 00:02:27.620 And I am having a little trouble. 56 00:02:27.620 --> 00:02:31.343 I'm going to try to change presenters here. So hold on. 57 00:02:36.940 --> 00:02:38.060 Whoops. 58 00:02:38.060 --> 00:02:40.563 All of a sudden, my screen decided to scroll. 59 00:02:45.870 --> 00:02:48.143 Mark, can you make him a presenter please? 60 00:02:53.284 --> 00:02:54.117 Sorry, folks. 61 00:03:02.223 --> 00:03:03.056 Did you get it, Andy? 62 00:03:03.056 --> 00:03:03.889 Yep. 63 00:03:03.889 --> 00:03:04.722 Okay. 64 00:03:04.722 --> 00:03:05.960 My screen all right? 65 00:03:05.960 --> 00:03:07.677 Yes, thank you. 66 00:03:18.136 --> 00:03:19.540 Alrighty. Hello everybody. 67 00:03:19.540 --> 00:03:21.883 As she said, I'm Andy Latto, I'm a Hurricane Specialist 68 00:03:21.883 --> 00:03:23.424 at the Hurricane Center. 69 00:03:23.424 --> 00:03:24.930 We're going to talk about some of the science 70 00:03:24.930 --> 00:03:27.920 behind hurricanes, some climatology, 71 00:03:27.920 --> 00:03:30.200 how it affects the Eastern United States, 72 00:03:30.200 --> 00:03:33.250 specifically the Carolinas and the mid-Atlantic, 73 00:03:33.250 --> 00:03:36.730 and also kind of convey some of the dangers behind it; 74 00:03:36.730 --> 00:03:38.923 some of the misconceptions. 75 00:03:38.923 --> 00:03:40.730 And overall you, hopefully, you can walk away 76 00:03:40.730 --> 00:03:43.610 with a sense of how to best expect things, 77 00:03:43.610 --> 00:03:45.390 as far as preparedness is concerned, 78 00:03:45.390 --> 00:03:47.970 and what the hazards might be 79 00:03:47.970 --> 00:03:51.243 in your particular locality for these hurricanes. 80 00:03:54.870 --> 00:03:57.240 So I wanna start right off the bat with a poll questions, 81 00:03:57.240 --> 00:03:59.040 just to make sure you all are awake. 82 00:03:59.040 --> 00:04:01.710 What's the deadliest hazard from hurricanes? 83 00:04:01.710 --> 00:04:04.982 And Shannon, I think's gonna to do a poll on there, 84 00:04:04.982 --> 00:04:07.570 and we're going to say, "Okay, is it widespread 85 00:04:07.570 --> 00:04:10.640 strong winds, tornadoes, flash flooding from heavy rain, 86 00:04:10.640 --> 00:04:12.007 or storm surge?" 87 00:04:16.990 --> 00:04:18.440 Okay. I've launched the poll. 88 00:04:18.440 --> 00:04:20.263 So select your answer. 89 00:04:21.104 --> 00:04:22.600 We'll give everybody a couple of seconds 90 00:04:23.716 --> 00:04:26.443 to get awake and choose the answer. 91 00:04:29.040 --> 00:04:30.780 Watching responses. 92 00:04:30.780 --> 00:04:32.642 People are still voting, 93 00:04:32.642 --> 00:04:34.183 so I'll wait another few seconds. 94 00:04:42.444 --> 00:04:43.900 Okay. 95 00:04:43.900 --> 00:04:48.305 We're getting there about 81% of you have voted, 82. 96 00:04:48.305 --> 00:04:49.263 Okay. We'll give you one more. 97 00:04:52.264 --> 00:04:54.145 All right. It looks like it's slowed down. 98 00:04:54.145 --> 00:04:56.580 So I'm going to go ahead and close the poll. 99 00:04:56.580 --> 00:04:59.320 And then I'm gonna share the polls results, 100 00:04:59.320 --> 00:05:01.020 and let's see what you guys think. 101 00:05:02.450 --> 00:05:07.450 So it looks like storm surge came in first at 56%, 102 00:05:07.620 --> 00:05:11.150 flash flooding from heavy rains at 29%, 103 00:05:11.150 --> 00:05:12.870 5% of you thought tornadoes, 104 00:05:12.870 --> 00:05:15.870 and 10% thought strong winds. 105 00:05:15.870 --> 00:05:18.910 All right, good job guys. Good job group. 106 00:05:18.910 --> 00:05:22.040 Water is what kills, so it's actually very close 107 00:05:22.908 --> 00:05:23.753 to what the polling results was. 108 00:05:24.588 --> 00:05:26.129 Storm surge is about 50%, 109 00:05:26.129 --> 00:05:28.320 flooding rainfall from rainfall is 27%, 110 00:05:28.320 --> 00:05:30.780 and much smaller percentages from the others. 111 00:05:30.780 --> 00:05:33.870 So, yeah, the popular conception is people think about wind, 112 00:05:33.870 --> 00:05:37.133 but it's the water that causes most of the fatalities. 113 00:05:38.955 --> 00:05:41.390 That's as far as a direct fatalities from storms occur, 114 00:05:41.390 --> 00:05:44.363 but there's a lot of indirect fatalities that occur 115 00:05:44.363 --> 00:05:46.150 as well from these major systems. 116 00:05:46.150 --> 00:05:50.677 Most frequently is cardiovascular events, you know, 117 00:05:50.677 --> 00:05:53.339 folks are doing strenuous activities trying to prepare, 118 00:05:53.339 --> 00:05:54.620 or clean up after the storm. 119 00:05:54.620 --> 00:05:57.866 Other things could be electric, 120 00:05:57.866 --> 00:06:00.469 lots of electrocution. 121 00:06:00.469 --> 00:06:02.100 So from down power lines or accidents, 122 00:06:02.100 --> 00:06:04.928 things like that, nature that can happen. 123 00:06:04.928 --> 00:06:05.990 A lot of folks aren't careful 124 00:06:05.990 --> 00:06:07.500 with their generators afterwards 125 00:06:07.500 --> 00:06:10.300 and they don't have proper ventilation, that can happen. 126 00:06:10.300 --> 00:06:12.953 Those are also considered indirect fatalities. 127 00:06:14.000 --> 00:06:17.843 By age, typically it's folks over 60, 128 00:06:18.830 --> 00:06:21.200 and the numbers go down 129 00:06:21.200 --> 00:06:23.113 as the ages go down. 130 00:06:24.860 --> 00:06:27.000 So climatologically speaking, 131 00:06:27.000 --> 00:06:28.860 where do these storms come from? 132 00:06:28.860 --> 00:06:30.260 So we're going to pretend, 133 00:06:30.260 --> 00:06:32.490 say that we start of in June here. 134 00:06:32.490 --> 00:06:34.513 And for folks that aren't aware of it, 135 00:06:35.721 --> 00:06:37.465 we're gonna actually start doing 136 00:06:37.465 --> 00:06:39.539 the tropical weather outlook, starting May 15th now. 137 00:06:39.539 --> 00:06:41.139 So we already do the tropical weather outlook 138 00:06:41.139 --> 00:06:42.819 for the East Pacific starting May 15th, 139 00:06:42.819 --> 00:06:43.670 but this is the first year we routinely 140 00:06:43.670 --> 00:06:45.520 do that for the Atlantic on May 15th. 141 00:06:46.480 --> 00:06:48.270 Just we've seen, noticed a trend, 142 00:06:48.270 --> 00:06:51.110 that we've typically had a lot of years recently, 143 00:06:51.110 --> 00:06:53.420 where storms have formed late May. 144 00:06:53.420 --> 00:06:56.520 And so it follows a similar pattern as June, 145 00:06:56.520 --> 00:06:59.230 it's just, there's occasional storm in late May, 146 00:06:59.230 --> 00:07:02.062 therefore we go, "Well, we're already doing the job 147 00:07:02.062 --> 00:07:03.657 for these specific miles, 148 00:07:03.657 --> 00:07:05.443 we'll just take a look at the Atlantic too." 149 00:07:05.443 --> 00:07:07.140 So June, the upper left hand corner, 150 00:07:07.140 --> 00:07:10.710 at it's likely formations typically Gulf of Mexico, 151 00:07:10.710 --> 00:07:12.400 up through the Carolina coast. 152 00:07:12.400 --> 00:07:14.420 And a lot of times you see these from disturbances 153 00:07:14.420 --> 00:07:17.050 that form off little frontal boundaries. 154 00:07:17.050 --> 00:07:19.523 You have things that stall, the cold front 155 00:07:19.523 --> 00:07:21.320 that moves off shore, shore stalls out, 156 00:07:21.320 --> 00:07:23.120 and you have something that kind of spins up on that, 157 00:07:23.120 --> 00:07:26.060 and festers for a couple of days, and then turns back north. 158 00:07:26.060 --> 00:07:28.740 And may make landfall something in the week. 159 00:07:28.740 --> 00:07:30.453 We had stuff like that last year. 160 00:07:31.836 --> 00:07:35.160 Arthur was an example of that. 161 00:07:35.160 --> 00:07:37.320 Going into July, things expand a little bit more 162 00:07:37.320 --> 00:07:39.440 towards the Caribbean. 163 00:07:39.440 --> 00:07:43.283 You see like tropical waves start crossing the Atlantic, 164 00:07:43.283 --> 00:07:44.263 they get a little stronger. 165 00:07:45.203 --> 00:07:46.985 The conditions become a little bit better, 166 00:07:46.985 --> 00:07:48.686 as far as shears concerned, 167 00:07:48.686 --> 00:07:50.033 wind shears are a big storm killer. 168 00:07:50.966 --> 00:07:52.190 And the shear typically lightens up 169 00:07:53.191 --> 00:07:55.803 as the season goes on. 170 00:07:56.790 --> 00:07:58.854 Of course the water's warm up as well. 171 00:07:58.854 --> 00:08:01.070 So you get those combination of the warmer waters, 172 00:08:01.070 --> 00:08:03.200 and the lighter winds in the atmosphere 173 00:08:03.200 --> 00:08:05.790 that allow the storms to really tower up. 174 00:08:05.790 --> 00:08:08.040 And so by August, you have all hotspots, 175 00:08:08.040 --> 00:08:10.010 pretty much anywhere in the Western Atlantic 176 00:08:10.010 --> 00:08:11.313 or the Caribbean Sea. 177 00:08:12.210 --> 00:08:14.350 And the typical tracks with August, 178 00:08:14.350 --> 00:08:15.980 you'd have less cold fronts, 179 00:08:15.980 --> 00:08:17.870 moving down into the Southern United States. 180 00:08:17.870 --> 00:08:20.250 So the tracks can often times go from east to west 181 00:08:20.250 --> 00:08:23.270 all the way up through even the Carolinas. 182 00:08:23.270 --> 00:08:25.636 And that's where you could see, a lot of times, 183 00:08:25.636 --> 00:08:27.372 the stronger storm-making landfall. 184 00:08:27.372 --> 00:08:29.347 August and September as these storms 185 00:08:29.347 --> 00:08:30.520 just kind of move east to west, 186 00:08:30.520 --> 00:08:32.730 and they kind of curve up a little bit 187 00:08:32.730 --> 00:08:35.150 as they approach the United States. 188 00:08:35.150 --> 00:08:37.730 And so September being the peak of the hurricane season, 189 00:08:37.730 --> 00:08:40.030 when all those conditions are just right, 190 00:08:40.030 --> 00:08:41.730 and then October starts, 191 00:08:41.730 --> 00:08:45.012 the things sort of start to die off from east to west. 192 00:08:45.012 --> 00:08:46.593 So they had the Cape Verde season, 193 00:08:46.593 --> 00:08:48.520 that kinda ends off of Africa, 194 00:08:48.520 --> 00:08:50.600 the conditions become a little more hostile. 195 00:08:50.600 --> 00:08:51.560 A lot of times those waves 196 00:08:51.560 --> 00:08:54.790 will just keep on propagating across the Atlantic. 197 00:08:54.790 --> 00:08:57.440 They won't form until I get to the Western Caribbean. 198 00:08:57.440 --> 00:09:00.132 That happened very classically last year. 199 00:09:00.132 --> 00:09:02.017 We had a couple of really strong hurricanes 200 00:09:02.017 --> 00:09:03.450 in the Western Caribbean late in the season. 201 00:09:03.450 --> 00:09:05.000 Michael, a couple of years ago, 202 00:09:06.198 --> 00:09:07.900 happened in late in the season, 203 00:09:07.900 --> 00:09:09.292 is a very similar circumstances. 204 00:09:09.292 --> 00:09:10.280 So the last time you see those big 205 00:09:11.137 --> 00:09:12.730 Gulf of Mexico hurricanes happen in October. 206 00:09:12.730 --> 00:09:14.620 You can also get some strong ones off the East Coast, 207 00:09:14.620 --> 00:09:16.430 but fortunately by October, 208 00:09:16.430 --> 00:09:20.039 typically, off the Eastern United States, 209 00:09:20.039 --> 00:09:23.140 cold fronts, the westerlies, 210 00:09:23.140 --> 00:09:25.287 the mid latitude westerlies 211 00:09:25.287 --> 00:09:27.147 kick in and they kind of push the storms 212 00:09:27.147 --> 00:09:29.287 off to the east before they get a chance to make landfall. 213 00:09:29.287 --> 00:09:30.810 Unless you're a Sandy type of year, 214 00:09:30.810 --> 00:09:32.260 where it pivots around it has 215 00:09:33.147 --> 00:09:34.610 those conditions just right to make landfall. 216 00:09:34.610 --> 00:09:37.425 By November, things really die down, 217 00:09:37.425 --> 00:09:38.711 there's a lot of wind shear, 218 00:09:38.711 --> 00:09:40.480 a lot of cold fronts moving off the United States. 219 00:09:40.480 --> 00:09:43.210 And so the conditions just are going downhill 220 00:09:43.210 --> 00:09:47.084 for storms to actually hold together for very long. 221 00:09:47.084 --> 00:09:49.190 That's kind of a rundown of what to expect 222 00:09:49.190 --> 00:09:51.180 month by month, typically speaking. 223 00:09:51.180 --> 00:09:53.000 And so if you add all that together, 224 00:09:53.000 --> 00:09:55.025 this is kind of what it looks like. 225 00:09:55.025 --> 00:09:56.780 September 10th is the climatological peak 226 00:09:56.780 --> 00:09:58.750 of hurricane season, but you can see this chart, 227 00:09:58.750 --> 00:10:00.120 all the way from left to right, 228 00:10:00.120 --> 00:10:02.508 you could have storms any of the time 229 00:10:02.508 --> 00:10:03.680 from, well basically, from like next week, 230 00:10:03.680 --> 00:10:05.303 all the way till Christmas. 231 00:10:06.180 --> 00:10:08.711 You add 'em all up to over the last a hundred years. 232 00:10:08.711 --> 00:10:10.740 So, but typically, you don't see 233 00:10:10.740 --> 00:10:13.330 a whole lot of activity until August, 234 00:10:13.330 --> 00:10:15.350 and then it goes on through October. 235 00:10:15.350 --> 00:10:16.610 You see that little secondary peak, 236 00:10:16.610 --> 00:10:20.070 that's that Western Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico peak 237 00:10:20.070 --> 00:10:22.220 that we oftentimes see like the Michaels form, 238 00:10:22.220 --> 00:10:24.323 and the Wilma's form and whatnot, 239 00:10:25.185 --> 00:10:27.497 when the storms come out of the Western Caribbean Sea. 240 00:10:28.547 --> 00:10:30.200 The history of tropical cyclones. 241 00:10:30.200 --> 00:10:32.193 You're going to see a couple of versions of this map. 242 00:10:32.193 --> 00:10:34.820 'Cause it kinda, it kind of highlights whether or not 243 00:10:34.820 --> 00:10:36.720 you're out of harm's way at any point in time. 244 00:10:36.720 --> 00:10:38.972 So unless you're way over here, 245 00:10:38.972 --> 00:10:42.610 you'll see potential effects from a tropical cycle 246 00:10:42.610 --> 00:10:45.283 at one point or another, probably in your lifetime. 247 00:10:46.560 --> 00:10:49.406 Zooming in a little bit, Major Hurricane History. 248 00:10:49.406 --> 00:10:52.200 So every yellow line was a major hurricane reaching land. 249 00:10:52.200 --> 00:10:54.980 Carolina's no stranger to them, 250 00:10:54.980 --> 00:10:56.230 and even New England, 251 00:10:57.148 --> 00:10:59.613 can get impacts directly from a major hurricane landfall. 252 00:11:00.960 --> 00:11:02.890 So we're gonna go through some hurricane basics, 253 00:11:02.890 --> 00:11:05.050 and kind of show you what they're all about. 254 00:11:05.050 --> 00:11:08.190 How they form and what their structure is. 255 00:11:08.190 --> 00:11:11.332 So here is four different major hurricanes. 256 00:11:11.332 --> 00:11:14.142 So they're all different shapes and sizes. 257 00:11:14.142 --> 00:11:17.520 Jose, it's hard to tell by looking at the map, 258 00:11:17.520 --> 00:11:20.113 it was a fairly small compact storm. 259 00:11:20.113 --> 00:11:20.970 It's kind of like Andrew, 260 00:11:20.970 --> 00:11:23.490 where you could have been in Miami getting racked 261 00:11:23.490 --> 00:11:25.617 by a category five hurricane, 262 00:11:25.617 --> 00:11:27.720 but if you were up in like, 263 00:11:27.720 --> 00:11:29.660 a hundred miles north, 264 00:11:29.660 --> 00:11:32.300 it was a breezy day, it wasn't that bad. 265 00:11:32.300 --> 00:11:34.690 Maria is a little bit bigger of a storm. 266 00:11:34.690 --> 00:11:36.610 Irma was a very large storm. 267 00:11:36.610 --> 00:11:39.010 When Irma passed by south Florida, 268 00:11:39.010 --> 00:11:41.410 you could feel it all the way up in Jacksonville. 269 00:11:41.410 --> 00:11:43.980 So it was, it was a very large, broad circulation. 270 00:11:43.980 --> 00:11:46.374 The convection, that all that red and yellow, 271 00:11:46.374 --> 00:11:50.405 spanned it out for a couple of hundred miles. 272 00:11:50.405 --> 00:11:52.150 And then Joaquin, 273 00:11:52.150 --> 00:11:54.550 even though it's eye was clouded over at that point in time, 274 00:11:54.550 --> 00:11:55.800 was a little bit sheared. 275 00:11:56.661 --> 00:11:57.494 It was still a major hurricane. 276 00:11:59.709 --> 00:12:02.560 So what makes these form? How do we build a hurricane? 277 00:12:02.560 --> 00:12:04.720 So you need all these ingredients to come together, 278 00:12:04.720 --> 00:12:07.200 just right, for them to happen. 279 00:12:07.200 --> 00:12:10.533 So number one, you need a preexisting disturbance. 280 00:12:10.533 --> 00:12:12.152 So what is that? 281 00:12:12.152 --> 00:12:13.582 It could be a tropical wave. 282 00:12:13.582 --> 00:12:14.415 It could be an old cold front. 283 00:12:14.415 --> 00:12:16.720 It could be some, a good example, 284 00:12:16.720 --> 00:12:17.940 Barry a couple of years ago, 285 00:12:17.940 --> 00:12:22.030 it was a mesoscale convective system. 286 00:12:22.030 --> 00:12:24.580 It came out of the central plains in the United States. 287 00:12:24.580 --> 00:12:27.680 Come all the way around the high pressure area 288 00:12:27.680 --> 00:12:30.200 into the Gulf of Mexico and became a storm. 289 00:12:30.200 --> 00:12:32.070 So any of those things that have 290 00:12:32.070 --> 00:12:34.106 a lot of thunderstorm activities, 291 00:12:34.106 --> 00:12:35.360 or a little bit of turning in the atmosphere, 292 00:12:35.360 --> 00:12:37.540 that have formed from something else 293 00:12:37.540 --> 00:12:38.410 can be the building block, 294 00:12:38.410 --> 00:12:41.408 the initialization of what a hurricane can be. 295 00:12:41.408 --> 00:12:44.150 So you need to be far enough north of the equator, 296 00:12:44.150 --> 00:12:46.720 the Coriolis force, the turning in the atmosphere, 297 00:12:46.720 --> 00:12:48.544 it has to be strong enough. 298 00:12:48.544 --> 00:12:50.226 And the farther north you go, 299 00:12:50.226 --> 00:12:52.060 the stronger that factor becomes. 300 00:12:52.060 --> 00:12:54.447 We see a little change in wind speed, 301 00:12:54.447 --> 00:12:55.540 and or direction with height, 302 00:12:55.540 --> 00:12:58.026 the word wind shear I'm talking about. 303 00:12:58.026 --> 00:13:00.980 When the winds are 10 miles per hour at the ground, 304 00:13:00.980 --> 00:13:02.540 out of the east, 305 00:13:02.540 --> 00:13:04.790 and they're 10 miles per hour out of the east, 306 00:13:04.790 --> 00:13:08.150 five miles up in the atmosphere, that's light wind shear. 307 00:13:08.150 --> 00:13:10.430 If it's 10 miles per hour to the east of the ground, 308 00:13:10.430 --> 00:13:12.840 and a hundred miles per hour to the east, five miles up, 309 00:13:12.840 --> 00:13:14.350 that strong wind shear. 310 00:13:14.350 --> 00:13:15.720 Hurricanes don't like wind shear, 311 00:13:15.720 --> 00:13:17.363 it'll tear the storms apart. 312 00:13:18.266 --> 00:13:20.869 Because they'll just tear the top off of a thunderstorm. 313 00:13:20.869 --> 00:13:22.970 So they need to be able to have that light winds, 314 00:13:22.970 --> 00:13:25.620 to be able to have that tall tower of convection to fuel, 315 00:13:25.620 --> 00:13:26.993 to get that engine going. 316 00:13:27.890 --> 00:13:28.960 And so the fuel it takes 317 00:13:28.960 --> 00:13:30.380 is the warm sea surface temperatures. 318 00:13:30.380 --> 00:13:33.080 That's where it gets its warm water and that warm air. 319 00:13:34.310 --> 00:13:35.600 An unstable atmosphere, 320 00:13:35.600 --> 00:13:38.163 so the temperatures go down as you go up. 321 00:13:39.464 --> 00:13:40.480 That's how we call instability. 322 00:13:40.480 --> 00:13:43.930 It helps the water air parcels lift fast, 323 00:13:43.930 --> 00:13:45.700 with that instability. 324 00:13:45.700 --> 00:13:48.328 And then high atmospheric moisture. 325 00:13:48.328 --> 00:13:50.170 You can't have a whole bunch of dry air, 326 00:13:50.170 --> 00:13:51.240 expect to have a lot of thunderstorms. 327 00:13:51.240 --> 00:13:52.600 You go outside today, here, 328 00:13:52.600 --> 00:13:55.290 it's barely a cloud in the sky. It's dry. 329 00:13:55.290 --> 00:13:57.973 Not conducive for thunderstorm activity. 330 00:13:59.460 --> 00:14:00.990 So example of these disturbances 331 00:14:00.990 --> 00:14:02.986 I was kind of alluding to already. 332 00:14:02.986 --> 00:14:06.460 So we have those tropical wave that come off of Africa, 333 00:14:06.460 --> 00:14:08.770 about 70% of all the tropical cyclones 334 00:14:08.770 --> 00:14:11.749 that we see in the Atlantic basin come from that. 335 00:14:11.749 --> 00:14:13.562 Then we have low fronts, 336 00:14:13.562 --> 00:14:16.390 low pressure systems, in the upper levels of atmosphere. 337 00:14:16.390 --> 00:14:18.400 We sometimes have these upper level lows 338 00:14:18.400 --> 00:14:20.853 that spun up Joaquin in 2015. 339 00:14:21.870 --> 00:14:22.950 Another great example, 340 00:14:22.950 --> 00:14:25.540 and you folks, up in the mid-Atlantic, 341 00:14:25.540 --> 00:14:28.460 and the Carolinas probably see a lot of this, 342 00:14:28.460 --> 00:14:29.915 occluded cycles. 343 00:14:29.915 --> 00:14:31.050 What I mean by those, 344 00:14:31.050 --> 00:14:33.240 is you have a cold front associated with a low 345 00:14:33.240 --> 00:14:35.140 that moves off the United States, 346 00:14:35.140 --> 00:14:38.360 that can go over warm waters and turn into a storm. 347 00:14:38.360 --> 00:14:41.540 It can transition into a tropical cyclone or a hurricane. 348 00:14:41.540 --> 00:14:43.620 So we usually see a few of those, 349 00:14:43.620 --> 00:14:45.620 a couple each year. 350 00:14:45.620 --> 00:14:47.860 And like I alluded to, the other one, 351 00:14:47.860 --> 00:14:50.016 the disturbances that come off 352 00:14:50.016 --> 00:14:52.057 the United States thunderstorms cluster 353 00:14:52.057 --> 00:14:53.924 produced by a non-tropical weather systems. 354 00:14:53.924 --> 00:14:55.806 That could be a big thunderstorm complex 355 00:14:55.806 --> 00:14:57.670 that crosses over your state, moves off shore, 356 00:14:57.670 --> 00:14:58.820 and turns into a storm. 357 00:14:59.822 --> 00:15:01.522 So all those are possible sources. 358 00:15:02.558 --> 00:15:03.690 How do they die? 359 00:15:03.690 --> 00:15:05.330 Number one, they weaken over land. 360 00:15:05.330 --> 00:15:06.939 Land causes friction. 361 00:15:06.939 --> 00:15:10.120 These storms do not survive with friction. 362 00:15:10.120 --> 00:15:12.440 They require that non-fiction water surface 363 00:15:12.440 --> 00:15:15.550 to spin them up, and give them that energy, 364 00:15:15.550 --> 00:15:17.500 and keep the engine going. 365 00:15:17.500 --> 00:15:20.620 They could mix in with cold air or dry air 366 00:15:20.620 --> 00:15:22.900 and become extra tropical. 367 00:15:22.900 --> 00:15:25.198 When these storms, a lot of times, 368 00:15:25.198 --> 00:15:26.750 go over cooler waters and interact with the cold front, 369 00:15:26.750 --> 00:15:28.942 they'll become extra tropical. 370 00:15:28.942 --> 00:15:32.753 Basically they become a mid-latitude cyclone with a cold 371 00:15:33.737 --> 00:15:34.570 front. We transition to that. 372 00:15:34.570 --> 00:15:37.262 Or they weakened to hostile environments, 373 00:15:37.262 --> 00:15:38.820 such as strong wind shear. 374 00:15:38.820 --> 00:15:40.540 They can get torn apart by wind shear or cool waters. 375 00:15:40.540 --> 00:15:42.610 And then all you have left, 376 00:15:42.610 --> 00:15:44.320 is this little swirl of low clouds 377 00:15:44.320 --> 00:15:46.203 in the low levels of the atmosphere. 378 00:15:47.099 --> 00:15:50.780 So those are different ways they can meet their demise. 379 00:15:50.780 --> 00:15:53.603 The very classic example of the Cape Verde hurricane. 380 00:15:54.944 --> 00:15:57.750 You have off of Africa, a tropical wave, 381 00:15:57.750 --> 00:16:01.230 and moves towards the west across the tropical Atlantic, 382 00:16:01.230 --> 00:16:03.410 slowly develops becomes a tropical depression, 383 00:16:03.410 --> 00:16:05.225 then a tropical storm, 384 00:16:05.225 --> 00:16:06.690 then a hurricane off the Eastern United States. 385 00:16:06.690 --> 00:16:09.529 And this lucky case, it re-curves, 386 00:16:09.529 --> 00:16:11.140 doesn't affect land, 387 00:16:11.140 --> 00:16:14.345 and comes a extra tropical transition. 388 00:16:14.345 --> 00:16:17.440 See the fronts, the cold fronts, the blue triangles, 389 00:16:17.440 --> 00:16:19.960 the classic warm front to the right, 390 00:16:19.960 --> 00:16:21.940 and it becomes an extra tropical storm 391 00:16:21.940 --> 00:16:24.703 that accelerates off across the northern Atlantic. 392 00:16:26.100 --> 00:16:27.200 Many times though, obviously, 393 00:16:27.200 --> 00:16:29.220 we're not as fortunate in these storms, 394 00:16:29.220 --> 00:16:31.460 the steering flow will take these into the United States. 395 00:16:31.460 --> 00:16:33.840 And I'm going to tell you how we look at those 396 00:16:33.840 --> 00:16:35.440 steering flows here in a second. 397 00:16:37.444 --> 00:16:39.550 One example of a season. 398 00:16:39.550 --> 00:16:42.060 So storms are all different shapes and sizes. 399 00:16:42.060 --> 00:16:44.950 They go different places, depending on the steering flow. 400 00:16:44.950 --> 00:16:45.970 You can see down south, 401 00:16:45.970 --> 00:16:48.623 you have a lot of classic east to west moving storms. 402 00:16:48.623 --> 00:16:52.060 They formed off the Cape Verde islands, 403 00:16:52.060 --> 00:16:53.490 but then you look north, 404 00:16:53.490 --> 00:16:54.990 you have a lot of storms that formed out here, 405 00:16:54.990 --> 00:16:57.326 meandered around and went north. 406 00:16:57.326 --> 00:16:58.810 That, those could be of subtropical origins. 407 00:16:58.810 --> 00:17:00.860 They could have formed from old upper-level lows, 408 00:17:00.860 --> 00:17:03.550 or oral fronts, different features like that. 409 00:17:03.550 --> 00:17:05.588 And then you have, look right here, 410 00:17:05.588 --> 00:17:06.925 the Western Caribbean Sea, the Gulf of Mexico, 411 00:17:06.925 --> 00:17:09.020 these are some of the early season 412 00:17:09.020 --> 00:17:11.259 and late season ones that made have formed. 413 00:17:11.259 --> 00:17:13.100 Like number three here, Sydney, was June. 414 00:17:13.100 --> 00:17:15.650 So yeah, those forming maybe off of an old frontal boundary, 415 00:17:15.650 --> 00:17:16.980 and then they lift north 416 00:17:16.980 --> 00:17:18.842 into the United States. 417 00:17:18.842 --> 00:17:20.435 So kind of a classic season here, 418 00:17:20.435 --> 00:17:21.268 where they have a few different areas 419 00:17:21.268 --> 00:17:22.270 that they could form at. 420 00:17:25.942 --> 00:17:26.790 So how do they, how do we know where 421 00:17:26.790 --> 00:17:28.879 they're going to be going? 422 00:17:28.879 --> 00:17:30.560 So basically you picture a leaf in a stream. 423 00:17:30.560 --> 00:17:33.248 They're just sitting there moving wherever 424 00:17:33.248 --> 00:17:35.807 the flow in the atmosphere is moving. 425 00:17:35.807 --> 00:17:38.690 Typically these deeper storms move 426 00:17:38.690 --> 00:17:43.200 with the large-scale atmospheric flow, the deep layer flow. 427 00:17:43.200 --> 00:17:45.180 A lot of times we look at the mid-level in the atmosphere, 428 00:17:45.180 --> 00:17:47.603 to determine what those steering flows might be. 429 00:17:48.870 --> 00:17:50.790 It's actually a very well understood, 430 00:17:50.790 --> 00:17:52.340 fairly well understood problem, 431 00:17:53.190 --> 00:17:54.639 because you've had to focus mainly 432 00:17:54.639 --> 00:17:56.948 just on this steering flow and the larger scale features. 433 00:17:56.948 --> 00:17:59.820 So those are large and identifiable computer models, 434 00:17:59.820 --> 00:18:02.498 a lot of times pick up on those fairly well. 435 00:18:02.498 --> 00:18:06.040 And they provide a fairly good estimation 436 00:18:06.040 --> 00:18:07.640 of where the storms are going to be going, 437 00:18:07.640 --> 00:18:09.040 especially in the near term. 438 00:18:12.231 --> 00:18:14.000 Intensity's a bit more of a challenge. 439 00:18:14.000 --> 00:18:16.440 So intensity, there's a lot of things going into play here. 440 00:18:16.440 --> 00:18:18.700 Not only did we have to worry about what's going on 441 00:18:18.700 --> 00:18:21.050 around the storm and the environment, 442 00:18:21.050 --> 00:18:22.620 we also have to worry about what's going on 443 00:18:22.620 --> 00:18:25.640 inside the storms, as far as it's structure. 444 00:18:25.640 --> 00:18:27.580 A storm can have a great environment, 445 00:18:27.580 --> 00:18:29.920 but if the internal structure's all messed up, 446 00:18:29.920 --> 00:18:33.960 and it can't get an eye-wall forming, and the core together, 447 00:18:33.960 --> 00:18:36.908 it might really struggle to strengthen. 448 00:18:36.908 --> 00:18:39.300 So we have to be aware of all of those different 449 00:18:39.300 --> 00:18:42.210 scales of the issue with intensity. 450 00:18:42.210 --> 00:18:44.470 And it spends a lot on track, 451 00:18:44.470 --> 00:18:47.850 because if it track's over colder waters or land, 452 00:18:47.850 --> 00:18:49.300 it could be a big difference. 453 00:18:50.206 --> 00:18:52.840 A great example is Dorian. 454 00:18:52.840 --> 00:18:55.680 Hurricane Dorian that went across the Bahamas, 455 00:18:55.680 --> 00:18:57.721 and devastated part of the Bahama chain, 456 00:18:57.721 --> 00:19:01.770 A lot of the models were having it crossover Hispaniola. 457 00:19:01.770 --> 00:19:04.150 And so their intensity forecast, 458 00:19:04.150 --> 00:19:05.600 a lot of them had dissipating. 459 00:19:06.490 --> 00:19:08.510 Unfortunately, it never really crossed that island, 460 00:19:08.510 --> 00:19:11.363 and instead of moving, it intensified off shore. 461 00:19:12.304 --> 00:19:14.060 Had it made across the island, 462 00:19:14.060 --> 00:19:17.040 it would have made it across maybe as a weak tropical storm. 463 00:19:17.040 --> 00:19:18.940 Instead it became a very strong hurricane. 464 00:19:18.940 --> 00:19:22.233 Remember in the category five, ultimately. 465 00:19:22.233 --> 00:19:24.040 The other factors are winds, 466 00:19:24.040 --> 00:19:26.600 temperature and moisture around the storm. 467 00:19:26.600 --> 00:19:29.107 So those are the key factors we look at. 468 00:19:29.107 --> 00:19:32.610 The shear, water temperatures, and moisture. 469 00:19:32.610 --> 00:19:35.194 Those are again, I mean, I've said that a couple of times, 470 00:19:35.194 --> 00:19:36.027 but those are key factors as far as 471 00:19:36.027 --> 00:19:37.663 intensification of a storm. 472 00:19:38.560 --> 00:19:41.410 Those internal processes are very important. 473 00:19:41.410 --> 00:19:44.700 That bottom right-hand corner pictures a microwave image. 474 00:19:44.700 --> 00:19:47.620 Kind of digs into the storm and shows you the structure. 475 00:19:47.620 --> 00:19:50.216 You see like, a ring of dry air in there, 476 00:19:50.216 --> 00:19:51.862 and you're like, "Oh, when it went, 477 00:19:51.862 --> 00:19:52.797 it went under an eyewall replacement cycle." 478 00:19:53.717 --> 00:19:55.670 So it might struggle initially with intensification 479 00:19:55.670 --> 00:19:56.870 in that kind of example. 480 00:20:00.160 --> 00:20:03.320 Another challenge we face in forecasting, 481 00:20:03.320 --> 00:20:06.130 is a rapid intensification. 482 00:20:06.130 --> 00:20:09.370 In this example, the storm goes from a weak hurricane 483 00:20:09.370 --> 00:20:12.050 to a major hurricane very quickly. 484 00:20:12.050 --> 00:20:15.143 And it's sometimes very difficult to pick up on 485 00:20:15.143 --> 00:20:17.610 when that process is going to occur. 486 00:20:17.610 --> 00:20:18.620 We look at the factors. 487 00:20:18.620 --> 00:20:20.040 We look at all the environmental factors 488 00:20:20.040 --> 00:20:22.490 and know that those are all very conducive, 489 00:20:22.490 --> 00:20:24.422 and the storm looks like it's going 490 00:20:24.422 --> 00:20:25.255 to have a good structure, 491 00:20:25.255 --> 00:20:27.470 then we can get higher confidence. 492 00:20:27.470 --> 00:20:29.060 And rapid intensification 493 00:20:29.060 --> 00:20:32.683 is defined by 35 mile per hour wind increase in 24 hours. 494 00:20:33.610 --> 00:20:35.250 But it's still poorly understood 495 00:20:35.250 --> 00:20:36.770 and generally poorly forecasted. 496 00:20:36.770 --> 00:20:39.017 It's very, very hard to have the high confidence to say, 497 00:20:39.017 --> 00:20:41.210 "Okay, this storm is going to get 40, 498 00:20:41.210 --> 00:20:43.310 knots stronger, in the next day." 499 00:20:43.310 --> 00:20:44.610 It's tough to pick up on that. 500 00:20:44.610 --> 00:20:46.930 We have different methods to look at that. 501 00:20:46.930 --> 00:20:49.050 Statistically, there's other tools 502 00:20:49.050 --> 00:20:51.230 that are being developed to help us with that. 503 00:20:51.230 --> 00:20:53.853 And we're still in the learning process of that. 504 00:20:55.760 --> 00:20:58.223 So our whole role here at NHC, 505 00:20:59.440 --> 00:21:02.500 is I'm going to go over that here now. 506 00:21:02.500 --> 00:21:05.240 The left-hand side of the screen you have in 1995, 507 00:21:05.240 --> 00:21:06.410 the buildings being built. 508 00:21:06.410 --> 00:21:11.150 They used to be over in the eastern part of Miami, 509 00:21:11.150 --> 00:21:13.700 until Hurricane Andrew hit that building, 510 00:21:13.700 --> 00:21:16.673 and took the radar out, tossed some cars around, 511 00:21:16.673 --> 00:21:18.917 and we decided, "Okay, we should probably build a building 512 00:21:18.917 --> 00:21:20.620 that's a little bit more resilient, 513 00:21:20.620 --> 00:21:23.867 since we're putting the hurricane center in South Florida." 514 00:21:25.452 --> 00:21:26.290 And so, Herb Saffir, 515 00:21:26.290 --> 00:21:27.760 which is one of the people that designed 516 00:21:27.760 --> 00:21:30.920 Saffir-Simpson Wind scale, helped design this building. 517 00:21:30.920 --> 00:21:34.940 It's 10 inch thick walls made of tons of concrete, 518 00:21:34.940 --> 00:21:37.140 with reinforced metal rods. 519 00:21:37.140 --> 00:21:40.990 So we can sit in there while a hurricane's blowing outside 520 00:21:40.990 --> 00:21:43.640 and be okay inside. 521 00:21:43.640 --> 00:21:45.610 Even on the right-hand corner of the screen, 522 00:21:45.610 --> 00:21:47.703 you see this big building here, 523 00:21:47.703 --> 00:21:49.360 that's a giant generator with a giant gas tank. 524 00:21:49.360 --> 00:21:51.980 So we can be a couple of weeks without electricity, 525 00:21:51.980 --> 00:21:54.663 still forecasting away, while there's storms outside. 526 00:21:56.570 --> 00:21:59.670 So the questions we have to answer as forecasters is first, 527 00:21:59.670 --> 00:22:01.530 we have to do an analysis. 528 00:22:01.530 --> 00:22:03.670 When we go through the forecast cycle, 529 00:22:03.670 --> 00:22:05.519 let's pretend I'm sitting down, 530 00:22:05.519 --> 00:22:06.703 it's a few hours process. 531 00:22:08.357 --> 00:22:11.126 And so some of the questions we have the first answer is, 532 00:22:11.126 --> 00:22:12.304 "Where's the storm at?" 533 00:22:12.304 --> 00:22:14.510 From this, the motion can be determined. 534 00:22:14.510 --> 00:22:17.194 We look at a lot of different data aircraft, if we're lucky, 535 00:22:17.194 --> 00:22:19.540 If not we have satellite imagery, 536 00:22:19.540 --> 00:22:21.530 we have scatterometer data, 537 00:22:21.530 --> 00:22:25.140 which is the satellite wind data, or buoy data... 538 00:22:25.140 --> 00:22:27.140 We have tons of sources we can look at. 539 00:22:27.140 --> 00:22:30.340 Even ship data, to try to determine where these centers are. 540 00:22:30.340 --> 00:22:31.173 'Cause that's not as, 541 00:22:31.173 --> 00:22:33.529 sometimes it's not as straightforward, 542 00:22:33.529 --> 00:22:35.324 as you see in this picture, where you see an eye. 543 00:22:35.324 --> 00:22:36.653 It's very easy to figure out that one. 544 00:22:36.653 --> 00:22:37.750 A lot of times these systems in the formative stages 545 00:22:37.750 --> 00:22:39.750 are very difficult to find the center, 546 00:22:39.750 --> 00:22:41.640 and therefore very difficult to figure out 547 00:22:41.640 --> 00:22:44.620 where they've been going for the last several hours. 548 00:22:44.620 --> 00:22:45.760 How strong is the storm? 549 00:22:45.760 --> 00:22:48.610 Even even more difficult if you don't have a lot of data. 550 00:22:49.735 --> 00:22:51.160 And a lot of the data sources have their limitations. 551 00:22:51.160 --> 00:22:53.460 That some of the best data we can get is aircraft, 552 00:22:53.460 --> 00:22:55.410 or radar if it's close enough to shore. 553 00:22:56.310 --> 00:22:57.980 Buoy data could be very useful as well, 554 00:22:57.980 --> 00:22:59.220 'cause it kind of gives you 555 00:22:59.220 --> 00:23:02.160 an actual pinpoint specific data. 556 00:23:02.160 --> 00:23:05.930 Otherwise we use satellite estimates, 557 00:23:05.930 --> 00:23:08.970 or if we have satellite wind data, we use that as well. 558 00:23:08.970 --> 00:23:10.760 How big is the storm? 559 00:23:10.760 --> 00:23:12.050 Another important factor. 560 00:23:12.050 --> 00:23:13.780 How far away do the tropical storm 561 00:23:13.780 --> 00:23:15.650 force winds extend from the center? 562 00:23:15.650 --> 00:23:17.670 That's a major part of how we determine 563 00:23:17.670 --> 00:23:19.769 where to issue watches and warnings. 564 00:23:19.769 --> 00:23:21.320 So if you have a very compact storm, 565 00:23:21.320 --> 00:23:23.637 where the storm tropical, storm force winds, 566 00:23:23.637 --> 00:23:25.210 only extend 30 miles from the center, 567 00:23:25.210 --> 00:23:26.320 you have a lot smaller area 568 00:23:26.320 --> 00:23:28.450 that you have to worry about evacuations, and whatnot, 569 00:23:28.450 --> 00:23:31.100 and preparations versus one that has 570 00:23:31.100 --> 00:23:32.773 a hundred mile storm radius. 571 00:23:34.387 --> 00:23:35.810 And so we had to look at all that data to determine 572 00:23:35.810 --> 00:23:38.600 those particular factors for tropical storm 573 00:23:38.600 --> 00:23:39.943 or hurricane force winds. 574 00:23:41.486 --> 00:23:43.360 And as I was saying, ship buoy, 575 00:23:43.360 --> 00:23:44.520 aircraft, scatterometer data, 576 00:23:44.520 --> 00:23:46.390 all helpful in trying to determine 577 00:23:46.390 --> 00:23:49.003 all three of these questions we have to answer. 578 00:23:50.570 --> 00:23:53.110 So there's some uncertainty when we do this analysis. 579 00:23:53.110 --> 00:23:56.060 And usually the week of the storm, 580 00:23:56.060 --> 00:23:57.840 the harder it is to figure out where it is. 581 00:23:57.840 --> 00:23:59.590 And that's, I was alluding to that, 582 00:24:00.894 --> 00:24:02.186 because if it has a major hurricane, has an eye, 583 00:24:02.186 --> 00:24:03.518 you can sit there, and look at a satellite, 584 00:24:03.518 --> 00:24:05.411 "Oh, there it is." Pretty simple. 585 00:24:05.411 --> 00:24:06.244 So our error is usually very low 586 00:24:06.244 --> 00:24:07.800 where the storm is for the analysis, 587 00:24:07.800 --> 00:24:09.300 five to 20 nautical miles. 588 00:24:09.300 --> 00:24:12.080 And this is that hour zero, keep that in mind. 589 00:24:12.080 --> 00:24:13.500 Hurricanes 50 to 40. 590 00:24:13.500 --> 00:24:16.057 40 being, if you can't see the well-defined eye, 591 00:24:16.057 --> 00:24:17.675 and it's kind of obscured, 592 00:24:17.675 --> 00:24:21.242 you have that typical area, you can get out of that. 593 00:24:21.242 --> 00:24:22.739 And then tropical storms, 594 00:24:22.739 --> 00:24:24.760 a little bit more error, because again, 595 00:24:24.760 --> 00:24:26.660 you can't find the center very easily. 596 00:24:28.348 --> 00:24:31.923 Intensity. Within about 10%. 597 00:24:31.923 --> 00:24:33.510 So a a hundred mile per hour hurricane 598 00:24:33.510 --> 00:24:36.023 could be 90 or 110 miles per hour. 599 00:24:37.291 --> 00:24:39.110 So a 30 mile per hour top compression 600 00:24:39.110 --> 00:24:42.000 could be a 45 mile per hour tropical storm. 601 00:24:42.000 --> 00:24:44.934 It's just basically the limitation of the data 602 00:24:44.934 --> 00:24:46.050 that we have at the time. 603 00:24:46.050 --> 00:24:49.380 And then wind radii, within about 25%. 604 00:24:49.380 --> 00:24:51.020 So if we say it's about 30 miles 605 00:24:51.020 --> 00:24:52.968 from the center of the extend, 606 00:24:52.968 --> 00:24:54.557 you might have to consider it being 607 00:24:54.557 --> 00:24:57.743 almost 40 miles to be on the safe side. 608 00:25:01.980 --> 00:25:04.370 So the radii present the largest distance 609 00:25:04.370 --> 00:25:05.810 from the center in the particular quadrant. 610 00:25:05.810 --> 00:25:08.439 That's important because we might say, 611 00:25:08.439 --> 00:25:10.830 they extend 120 miles from the center, 612 00:25:10.830 --> 00:25:12.800 but that's maybe right here, into my center, 613 00:25:12.800 --> 00:25:14.490 only a hundred over here. 614 00:25:14.490 --> 00:25:16.140 But you have to assume the worst case scenario, 615 00:25:16.140 --> 00:25:18.300 in this case, to stay out of the harm's way. 616 00:25:18.300 --> 00:25:20.300 So this, when we see this graphic here, 617 00:25:20.300 --> 00:25:22.010 that's what we're showing the tropical storm force winds 618 00:25:22.010 --> 00:25:23.493 is that large orange circle, 619 00:25:24.377 --> 00:25:28.567 and that brownish copper is hurricane force winds. 620 00:25:28.567 --> 00:25:32.170 And our products will always show this 34, 50, and 64, 621 00:25:32.170 --> 00:25:34.245 you see in the bottom left-hand corner, 622 00:25:34.245 --> 00:25:35.548 that's in nautical miles, 623 00:25:35.548 --> 00:25:37.693 and how far the maximum extent of each quadrant is. 624 00:25:39.660 --> 00:25:43.170 Okay, next poll question, to make sure you're still awake. 625 00:25:43.170 --> 00:25:44.760 What is typically the more challenging part 626 00:25:44.760 --> 00:25:48.013 of the hurricane forecast? Track or intensity? 627 00:25:48.013 --> 00:25:48.940 If you're paying attention, 628 00:25:48.940 --> 00:25:49.917 you'll know the answer to this one. 629 00:25:51.823 --> 00:25:54.673 All right. The poll is open cast your votes now. 630 00:26:03.430 --> 00:26:06.533 Votes coming in really fast. We've already got 70%. 631 00:26:20.220 --> 00:26:22.646 All right, I'll keep the poll open 632 00:26:22.646 --> 00:26:23.479 for about five more seconds. 633 00:26:23.479 --> 00:26:24.312 Get your votes in. 634 00:26:31.337 --> 00:26:32.170 All right. 635 00:26:32.170 --> 00:26:33.323 Last chance. 636 00:26:35.193 --> 00:26:36.026 And we're done. 637 00:26:38.430 --> 00:26:41.870 So we have about 24% voted for track, 638 00:26:41.870 --> 00:26:45.510 and 76% voting for intensity. 639 00:26:45.510 --> 00:26:46.510 All right. Great. 640 00:26:46.510 --> 00:26:49.210 Yep. Intensity is the correct answer. 641 00:26:49.210 --> 00:26:51.460 Intensity is definitely more difficult 642 00:26:51.460 --> 00:26:54.343 statistically to forecast than track. 643 00:26:54.343 --> 00:26:56.650 Track forecasting, as we were saying before, 644 00:26:56.650 --> 00:26:57.910 is relatively simple. 645 00:26:57.910 --> 00:27:00.680 It's the cork or the leaf in the stream. 646 00:27:00.680 --> 00:27:02.950 The larger features, you see in the top right-hand corner, 647 00:27:02.950 --> 00:27:04.910 larger features, it just flows around. 648 00:27:04.910 --> 00:27:07.564 It goes, flows around the high pressure, 649 00:27:07.564 --> 00:27:09.330 gets picked up by a trough and turns away. 650 00:27:09.330 --> 00:27:10.760 So intensity forecasting, 651 00:27:10.760 --> 00:27:12.600 we have to worry about the inner structure 652 00:27:12.600 --> 00:27:16.070 and the larger scale environment. 653 00:27:16.070 --> 00:27:18.030 So these storms can then be bringing dry air into 'em. 654 00:27:18.030 --> 00:27:21.540 It takes time to work that dry air out, for example, 655 00:27:21.540 --> 00:27:24.930 and so it's much more difficult to forecast for intensity. 656 00:27:24.930 --> 00:27:26.180 When radii forecasting, 657 00:27:26.180 --> 00:27:29.194 we have some guidance, but not a lot, 658 00:27:29.194 --> 00:27:32.910 So we have climatological methods we look at. 659 00:27:32.910 --> 00:27:34.465 Some of them global models, 660 00:27:34.465 --> 00:27:37.060 and higher res models are also providing 661 00:27:37.060 --> 00:27:40.080 some guidance onto that as well. 662 00:27:40.080 --> 00:27:42.770 But the errors in those are still being studied, 663 00:27:42.770 --> 00:27:46.140 and there's some challenges with that. 664 00:27:46.140 --> 00:27:49.240 There's different challenges that are faced with wind radii. 665 00:27:49.240 --> 00:27:51.260 Is the storm strengthening or weakening? 666 00:27:51.260 --> 00:27:53.270 Is it becoming extra topical? 667 00:27:53.270 --> 00:27:55.090 If things are, if this is going to be interacting 668 00:27:55.090 --> 00:27:57.210 with like a frontal boundary, as it goes north, 669 00:27:57.210 --> 00:27:59.510 these wind fields can expand very rapidly. 670 00:27:59.510 --> 00:28:02.180 That becomes a big challenge in how far the extent 671 00:28:02.180 --> 00:28:05.460 of these tropical storm force winds are going to be. 672 00:28:05.460 --> 00:28:07.430 Also if it passes over land, 673 00:28:07.430 --> 00:28:08.910 well that radii could decrease 674 00:28:08.910 --> 00:28:10.220 because you have that friction. 675 00:28:10.220 --> 00:28:11.820 So all, you have to think about all those things, 676 00:28:11.820 --> 00:28:14.470 when you're talking about the wind radii forecasting. 677 00:28:15.960 --> 00:28:19.030 So our product suite at the Hurricane Center, 678 00:28:19.030 --> 00:28:20.550 brought up from a time by time basis. 679 00:28:20.550 --> 00:28:23.246 So we have the tropical weather outlook we routinely issue. 680 00:28:23.246 --> 00:28:25.990 We also might issue a special tropical weather outlook. 681 00:28:25.990 --> 00:28:28.044 If there's something that's looking 682 00:28:28.044 --> 00:28:29.374 a little bit suspicious out there, 683 00:28:29.374 --> 00:28:31.091 and we have to have new information that says, 684 00:28:31.091 --> 00:28:32.970 "Oh, we have to increase the probabilities big time." 685 00:28:32.970 --> 00:28:35.230 But five days out, we usually, 686 00:28:35.230 --> 00:28:36.973 that's the only thing you see, 687 00:28:36.973 --> 00:28:38.990 if we have no storms is an outlook. 688 00:28:38.990 --> 00:28:40.030 Within three to five days, 689 00:28:40.030 --> 00:28:41.890 we might have an advisory for a storm. 690 00:28:41.890 --> 00:28:44.660 So we have the advisories, wind speed probabilities, 691 00:28:44.660 --> 00:28:46.260 forecast discussion. 692 00:28:46.260 --> 00:28:49.810 We typically issue every six hours for a storm 693 00:28:49.810 --> 00:28:52.592 that's out there without threatening any land. 694 00:28:52.592 --> 00:28:55.900 Within two to three days of landfall, we will issue, 695 00:28:55.900 --> 00:28:57.700 you know, a couple of days out, 696 00:28:57.700 --> 00:29:00.080 we'll issue tropical storm hurricane watches. 697 00:29:00.080 --> 00:29:01.100 And at that point, 698 00:29:01.100 --> 00:29:03.590 we start issuing those advisories every three hours. 699 00:29:03.590 --> 00:29:04.810 Intermediates every three hours, 700 00:29:04.810 --> 00:29:06.453 and the full package, every six. 701 00:29:07.410 --> 00:29:08.369 Within that two day timeframe, 702 00:29:08.369 --> 00:29:11.580 we within, typically we'll issue the, 703 00:29:11.580 --> 00:29:14.747 if he's going to be threatening land, 704 00:29:14.747 --> 00:29:17.180 hurricane warnings, local statements. 705 00:29:17.180 --> 00:29:19.220 The local weather forecast office 706 00:29:19.220 --> 00:29:21.797 will start issuing their products as well. 707 00:29:21.797 --> 00:29:24.400 We spell out, with a little bit more clarity, 708 00:29:24.400 --> 00:29:26.380 the impacts of timing, 709 00:29:26.380 --> 00:29:28.430 everything as far as when things 710 00:29:28.430 --> 00:29:30.763 could be expected to occur in your area. 711 00:29:32.250 --> 00:29:33.720 Graphically speaking, 712 00:29:33.720 --> 00:29:35.460 this is classically what it would look like. 713 00:29:35.460 --> 00:29:36.590 Is the Cone of Uncertainty, 714 00:29:36.590 --> 00:29:38.040 as everyone likes to call it. 715 00:29:39.320 --> 00:29:41.580 So in this particular example, 716 00:29:41.580 --> 00:29:43.243 the northwest motion is expected, 717 00:29:43.243 --> 00:29:45.870 And then center, we approach the U.S., 718 00:29:45.870 --> 00:29:48.237 in maybe a Monday or Tuesday timeframe, 719 00:29:48.237 --> 00:29:51.140 and additional strengthening is expected. 720 00:29:51.140 --> 00:29:53.150 'Cause you saw from the 'H' is a hurricane, 721 00:29:53.150 --> 00:29:56.080 'M' is a major hurricane, so it shows intensification. 722 00:29:56.080 --> 00:29:57.790 And here's a quick question, 723 00:29:57.790 --> 00:30:00.508 what you folks listening in, 724 00:30:00.508 --> 00:30:03.720 just because it's in this Cone of Uncertainty, 725 00:30:03.720 --> 00:30:06.223 does that mean you're outside of it, you're safe? 726 00:30:07.377 --> 00:30:08.977 Just ask yourself that question. 727 00:30:09.960 --> 00:30:11.450 The answer's no. 728 00:30:11.450 --> 00:30:13.160 Two thirds of the time, 729 00:30:13.160 --> 00:30:15.780 the center of the storm stays inside that cone. 730 00:30:15.780 --> 00:30:17.420 It means one third of the time, 731 00:30:17.420 --> 00:30:19.300 the center, the actual center, 732 00:30:19.300 --> 00:30:21.480 would be over here, or over here, 733 00:30:21.480 --> 00:30:23.860 and that's a center of circulation. 734 00:30:23.860 --> 00:30:26.660 So all the core threat, all the core winds might be, 735 00:30:26.660 --> 00:30:30.270 the center might be here on the edge a third of the time, 736 00:30:30.270 --> 00:30:32.290 and the wind, strongest winds are right here, 737 00:30:32.290 --> 00:30:33.490 outside the cone. 738 00:30:33.490 --> 00:30:35.990 So it's important to see if you're at the cone, 739 00:30:35.990 --> 00:30:38.390 or even near the cone to keep an eye on this. 740 00:30:38.390 --> 00:30:41.223 'Cause that cone can also shift as time goes by. 741 00:30:42.920 --> 00:30:44.320 So we show hurricane force, 742 00:30:44.320 --> 00:30:46.124 probably is kind of built 743 00:30:46.124 --> 00:30:47.730 in a little bit of that uncertainty. 744 00:30:47.730 --> 00:30:51.130 So we have showing probabilities here in yellow, 745 00:30:51.130 --> 00:30:52.980 is about a one in three chance 746 00:30:52.980 --> 00:30:55.070 of seeing hurricane force conditions 747 00:30:55.070 --> 00:30:56.793 at any of these locations. 748 00:30:58.000 --> 00:31:02.330 And we can combine these wind speed probabilities 749 00:31:02.330 --> 00:31:03.670 with a time of arrival. 750 00:31:03.670 --> 00:31:05.765 We have two different types of time of arrival. 751 00:31:05.765 --> 00:31:07.150 This one's called the Most Likely Arrival, 752 00:31:07.150 --> 00:31:09.800 and this helps in preparation for storms. 753 00:31:09.800 --> 00:31:11.910 And so you see like on Monday at 8:00 PM, 754 00:31:11.910 --> 00:31:13.670 is where the most likely time 755 00:31:13.670 --> 00:31:15.216 the tropical storm force winds 756 00:31:15.216 --> 00:31:16.290 will already be inland. 757 00:31:16.290 --> 00:31:18.161 So if you're doing preparation, 758 00:31:18.161 --> 00:31:20.150 and you're trying to put up shutters, things like that, 759 00:31:20.150 --> 00:31:21.787 you don't want to be doing those 760 00:31:21.787 --> 00:31:23.286 with there's tropical storm conditions. 761 00:31:23.286 --> 00:31:24.460 So it kind of gives you an idea, 762 00:31:24.460 --> 00:31:27.190 is when your preparation should be completed by, 763 00:31:27.190 --> 00:31:29.960 when you're preparing for the storm's arrival. 764 00:31:29.960 --> 00:31:31.663 If you have a lower threshold, 765 00:31:31.663 --> 00:31:34.950 'earliest reasonable' might be a good way to plan, 766 00:31:34.950 --> 00:31:37.011 because assume it's going to go faster. 767 00:31:37.011 --> 00:31:39.020 And so by maybe Monday 8:00 AM, 768 00:31:39.020 --> 00:31:40.960 if you're trying to plan along the coastline here, 769 00:31:40.960 --> 00:31:42.640 that may be safe time to make sure you have 770 00:31:42.640 --> 00:31:43.930 all your preparations complete. 771 00:31:43.930 --> 00:31:45.580 Maybe you have a lot more work to be done. 772 00:31:45.580 --> 00:31:48.250 Maybe have to take a ship out of a port. 773 00:31:48.250 --> 00:31:49.852 You know, those kinds of things, 774 00:31:49.852 --> 00:31:51.840 you have different factors, different thresholds, 775 00:31:51.840 --> 00:31:54.590 for everybody depending on what their preparations are. 776 00:31:55.863 --> 00:31:58.260 For those of you that lived in that area, 777 00:31:58.260 --> 00:31:59.690 when Hugo went through, 778 00:31:59.690 --> 00:32:01.530 here's the examples for the key messages. 779 00:32:01.530 --> 00:32:04.930 So we have, when a storm is going to be threatening an area, 780 00:32:04.930 --> 00:32:06.930 we will write up these key messages 781 00:32:06.930 --> 00:32:10.263 to try to show what the main impacts are going to be. 782 00:32:10.263 --> 00:32:12.520 In this particular case, we're trying to explain, 783 00:32:12.520 --> 00:32:14.220 is going to be a major hurricane. 784 00:32:14.220 --> 00:32:16.750 The timing, we tell the impacts are going to be 785 00:32:16.750 --> 00:32:19.030 strong winds in a dangerous surge, 786 00:32:19.030 --> 00:32:21.679 from the coast, South Carolina, North Carolina. 787 00:32:21.679 --> 00:32:25.301 But we also mention it's too soon to determine 788 00:32:25.301 --> 00:32:27.693 the location, timing, magnitude. 789 00:32:28.580 --> 00:32:30.780 So we urge everybody to keep monitoring 790 00:32:30.780 --> 00:32:32.880 their local officials and listen to them, 791 00:32:32.880 --> 00:32:34.806 as far as evacuation advice. 792 00:32:34.806 --> 00:32:38.101 We talk about risk of damaging and wind rainfall. 793 00:32:38.101 --> 00:32:39.723 We talk about flooding. 794 00:32:40.853 --> 00:32:43.800 So if flooding is going to be like, 795 00:32:43.800 --> 00:32:45.245 it's gonna be slow moving, 796 00:32:45.245 --> 00:32:47.317 and floodings going to be a really big issue, 797 00:32:47.317 --> 00:32:50.560 we're gonna really highlight that in these statements here. 798 00:32:50.560 --> 00:32:52.750 And lastly, we talked about large swells, 799 00:32:52.750 --> 00:32:54.410 because not necessarily because 800 00:32:54.410 --> 00:32:55.710 you're in the direct path of these storms, 801 00:32:55.710 --> 00:32:57.400 but we're talking about Bermuda, 802 00:32:57.400 --> 00:32:58.780 portions of the East Coast through mid-week, 803 00:32:58.780 --> 00:33:01.610 that might even be directly impacted by the storm. 804 00:33:01.610 --> 00:33:02.670 We had storms last year, 805 00:33:02.670 --> 00:33:05.440 that several hundred miles off shore, 806 00:33:05.440 --> 00:33:07.450 that there's still multiple fatalities 807 00:33:07.450 --> 00:33:10.370 along the Eastern United States due to the swell, 808 00:33:10.370 --> 00:33:12.650 that caused these rip currents. 809 00:33:12.650 --> 00:33:14.910 That enhanced the rip currents 810 00:33:14.910 --> 00:33:16.325 combined with the local effects. 811 00:33:16.325 --> 00:33:19.193 And so they can be deadly without even reaching land. 812 00:33:21.020 --> 00:33:22.708 So the inland winds, right? 813 00:33:22.708 --> 00:33:24.520 Here's an example from Hurricane Hugo. 814 00:33:24.520 --> 00:33:27.340 The wind swath on the, on the upper right-hand screen here, 815 00:33:27.340 --> 00:33:29.088 shows how strong the winds penetrated inland. 816 00:33:29.088 --> 00:33:30.597 It's hard to kind of tell, 817 00:33:30.597 --> 00:33:34.080 if you look closely the green 100 mile per hour plus, 818 00:33:34.080 --> 00:33:36.510 penetrated a fairly decent amount inland 819 00:33:36.510 --> 00:33:38.290 here along its landfall. 820 00:33:38.290 --> 00:33:39.510 And then of course you had the winds 821 00:33:39.510 --> 00:33:41.683 decreasing as it moves inland, 822 00:33:41.683 --> 00:33:43.970 but there was still quite a bit of strong winds, 823 00:33:43.970 --> 00:33:45.758 a large swath of damage that occurred 824 00:33:45.758 --> 00:33:47.756 as the storm moved in. 825 00:33:47.756 --> 00:33:50.733 Still a CAT-1 as it reached Charlotte, North Carolina. 826 00:33:51.744 --> 00:33:53.690 Folks, a lot of you that probably 827 00:33:53.690 --> 00:33:55.546 went through Isaias last year, 828 00:33:55.546 --> 00:33:59.890 could probably appreciate how a category one hurricane 829 00:33:59.890 --> 00:34:03.910 making landfall was still a strong tropical storm 830 00:34:03.910 --> 00:34:05.860 as it went past New York. 831 00:34:05.860 --> 00:34:08.670 It still had a little bit of dynamic 832 00:34:08.670 --> 00:34:10.410 interaction with a trough. 833 00:34:10.410 --> 00:34:11.590 And there's still a little bit 834 00:34:11.590 --> 00:34:13.477 of source of warm waters there, 835 00:34:13.477 --> 00:34:17.450 that part of circulation was feeding off the East Coast. 836 00:34:17.450 --> 00:34:19.275 So it maintained a large, 837 00:34:19.275 --> 00:34:21.480 large amount of its circulation 838 00:34:21.480 --> 00:34:23.560 as it moved several states last year. 839 00:34:23.560 --> 00:34:27.070 And it caused a swath of damage all the way from 840 00:34:27.070 --> 00:34:31.403 South Carolina, even into Vermont and New Hampshire. 841 00:34:32.330 --> 00:34:34.210 Power outages, all up and down the East Coast, 842 00:34:34.210 --> 00:34:37.418 from one weak hurricane. 843 00:34:37.418 --> 00:34:40.200 The category ones can be very potent 844 00:34:40.200 --> 00:34:42.213 and it can cause a lot of damage, 845 00:34:42.213 --> 00:34:43.770 and cause quite a bit of fatalities. 846 00:34:43.770 --> 00:34:47.350 It doesn't take a CAT-5 to necessarily cause any fatalities. 847 00:34:47.350 --> 00:34:49.180 Some of the most devastating storms 848 00:34:49.180 --> 00:34:51.820 are actually going to be the weak ones. 849 00:34:51.820 --> 00:34:54.705 So I want to go with this question. 850 00:34:54.705 --> 00:34:55.640 We're gonna get more local for you folks, 851 00:34:55.640 --> 00:34:58.084 how many tropical storms were stronger? 852 00:34:58.084 --> 00:34:59.180 So, I'm gonna probably have to explain 853 00:34:59.180 --> 00:35:01.240 this question a little bit. 854 00:35:01.240 --> 00:35:04.660 If let's say, anywhere from South Carolina to New York, 855 00:35:04.660 --> 00:35:07.660 how many tropical storms to hurricanes 856 00:35:07.660 --> 00:35:09.303 have tracked across that area? 857 00:35:09.303 --> 00:35:11.337 Doesn't have to mean it made landfall in that area, 858 00:35:11.337 --> 00:35:14.000 but it's tracked across that region, 859 00:35:14.000 --> 00:35:16.633 and in our recorded history. 860 00:35:18.170 --> 00:35:19.830 Okay, the poll is open 861 00:35:19.830 --> 00:35:21.453 and we have people voting. 862 00:35:23.590 --> 00:35:25.300 So let's see what their answer is. 863 00:35:25.300 --> 00:35:28.070 I will let the audience know I got this one wrong 864 00:35:28.070 --> 00:35:30.860 when we went through it before, so... 865 00:35:30.860 --> 00:35:32.310 but it looks like everybody's 866 00:35:33.149 --> 00:35:36.173 getting it more correctly than I did. 867 00:35:37.410 --> 00:35:39.810 All right. Few more seconds. 868 00:35:39.810 --> 00:35:42.083 We've about 70% have voted. 869 00:35:51.860 --> 00:35:54.020 Okay, it looks like the voting has pretty much 870 00:35:54.020 --> 00:35:55.356 slowed down or stopped. 871 00:35:55.356 --> 00:35:57.140 I'm gonna close the poll 872 00:35:58.160 --> 00:35:59.630 and share the results. 873 00:35:59.630 --> 00:36:01.903 It looks like most people, 874 00:36:03.014 --> 00:36:06.677 45% say 322, 24%-- 875 00:36:06.677 --> 00:36:09.590 It's pretty evenly split between 411 and 222. 876 00:36:09.590 --> 00:36:13.330 24% for 411, and 25% for 222. 877 00:36:13.330 --> 00:36:15.290 And then 7% said 111. 878 00:36:16.928 --> 00:36:19.686 So was the percentage for 411? 879 00:36:19.686 --> 00:36:21.210 Uh, 24%. 880 00:36:21.210 --> 00:36:24.640 Okay, well those 24% are correct. 881 00:36:24.640 --> 00:36:28.244 We're going to go through a state-by-state breakdown here. 882 00:36:28.244 --> 00:36:30.790 South Carolina, 86 storms have crossed 883 00:36:30.790 --> 00:36:33.987 your area in recorded history. 884 00:36:33.987 --> 00:36:35.501 I think some of the oldest ones you 885 00:36:35.501 --> 00:36:37.461 see in here is an Unnamed 1882. 886 00:36:37.461 --> 00:36:40.367 So these storms could have crossed anywhere like, 887 00:36:40.367 --> 00:36:41.450 they could've made landfall in the Gulf of Mexico 888 00:36:41.450 --> 00:36:44.350 in the crossing the state, or made landfall in your state. 889 00:36:45.190 --> 00:36:47.750 Kinda to give you a perception of like, 890 00:36:47.750 --> 00:36:50.870 what the threat over time could be in your area. 891 00:36:50.870 --> 00:36:53.790 The red lines, that kind of magenta lines, 892 00:36:53.790 --> 00:36:57.490 those are major hurricanes that affected the area. 893 00:36:57.490 --> 00:37:00.640 And the green, the blue lines are tropical depressions, 894 00:37:00.640 --> 00:37:03.520 I believe, and green would be tropical storms, 895 00:37:03.520 --> 00:37:04.770 and yellow was hurricane. 896 00:37:06.506 --> 00:37:08.290 Moving North... 135, North Carolina. 897 00:37:08.290 --> 00:37:10.890 North Carolina sticks out there. It has the Cape. 898 00:37:10.890 --> 00:37:15.833 So a lot of storms graze that area quite a bit over time. 899 00:37:16.870 --> 00:37:18.923 Virginia, 69 storms. 900 00:37:20.598 --> 00:37:21.431 A lot of the time they were moving from, 901 00:37:21.431 --> 00:37:23.550 it's kind of a southwest to northeast direction. 902 00:37:23.550 --> 00:37:25.909 They're getting, they're accelerating. 903 00:37:25.909 --> 00:37:27.990 Isaias, last year is a good example. 904 00:37:27.990 --> 00:37:30.100 It's right up there where this path was 905 00:37:30.100 --> 00:37:33.182 across the eastern portion of Virginia. 906 00:37:33.182 --> 00:37:34.015 Maryland's, 38. 907 00:37:35.670 --> 00:37:37.243 Delaware, 15. 908 00:37:38.430 --> 00:37:40.990 New Jersey, 23. 909 00:37:40.990 --> 00:37:41.980 And again, New York, 910 00:37:41.980 --> 00:37:45.183 'cause it has Long Island there, it kinda sticks out. 911 00:37:46.857 --> 00:37:48.720 You get hit by 45 in history. 912 00:37:48.720 --> 00:37:51.370 And some of those have been pretty strong storms as well, 913 00:37:51.370 --> 00:37:53.120 especially in the Long Island area. 914 00:37:56.240 --> 00:38:00.879 So here's a montage of last year's, season, record season. 915 00:38:00.879 --> 00:38:03.283 Hopefully that's not the case this year. 916 00:38:04.170 --> 00:38:06.740 What I'd like to convey about hurricane preparedness, 917 00:38:06.740 --> 00:38:08.390 here's a link actually at the top 918 00:38:09.260 --> 00:38:10.500 to the hurricane preparedness. 919 00:38:10.500 --> 00:38:13.770 It's, I just added this, so it's not on the PDF. 920 00:38:13.770 --> 00:38:15.639 But it's hurricane preparedness week is next week. 921 00:38:15.639 --> 00:38:18.280 There's a lot of good resources on there. 922 00:38:18.280 --> 00:38:19.783 It'll also go to your local, 923 00:38:19.783 --> 00:38:23.330 there's stuff usually offered in localities, 924 00:38:23.330 --> 00:38:25.470 as far as like what your evacuation information is. 925 00:38:25.470 --> 00:38:27.242 We're actually talking about that 926 00:38:27.242 --> 00:38:28.920 before this webinar started. 927 00:38:28.920 --> 00:38:32.273 You know, everybody, if you lived in a vulnerable area, 928 00:38:32.273 --> 00:38:34.170 that has an evacuation zone, 929 00:38:34.170 --> 00:38:35.950 it's typically because of surge. 930 00:38:35.950 --> 00:38:39.602 Know what zone you're in, and know how to prepare, 931 00:38:39.602 --> 00:38:43.530 and have all your stuff prepared now rather than later. 932 00:38:43.530 --> 00:38:45.750 It's always a good rule of thumb. 933 00:38:45.750 --> 00:38:47.500 I know that one question that's probably gonna be asked is, 934 00:38:47.500 --> 00:38:49.200 how busy this hurricane season is gonna be. 935 00:38:49.200 --> 00:38:52.655 I'm gonna answer that before I field other questions. 936 00:38:52.655 --> 00:38:55.800 We don't have the number yet from NOAA, 937 00:38:55.800 --> 00:38:57.220 as far as how busy it is. 938 00:38:57.220 --> 00:38:59.920 I don't think it's going to be as high as last year's 939 00:38:59.920 --> 00:39:02.570 numbers that we actually saw. That was a record year. 940 00:39:03.470 --> 00:39:05.439 But even if, if you know, 941 00:39:05.439 --> 00:39:08.123 it might be forecasted to be above normal, 942 00:39:09.270 --> 00:39:11.480 even if like in the future years, 943 00:39:11.480 --> 00:39:13.570 if it's forecast to be below normal, 944 00:39:13.570 --> 00:39:15.393 per se like down the road, 945 00:39:16.702 --> 00:39:19.052 it's all a matter of perspective 946 00:39:19.052 --> 00:39:21.863 of folks in where you live. 947 00:39:23.738 --> 00:39:26.470 Last year, busiest year on record. 948 00:39:26.470 --> 00:39:30.890 If I lived in central Florida, it felt pretty good. 949 00:39:30.890 --> 00:39:33.660 Didn't really get hit by a whole lot of stuff. 950 00:39:33.660 --> 00:39:36.340 If you lived in western Louisiana, not so much, 951 00:39:36.340 --> 00:39:38.283 you got hit by multiple hurricanes. 952 00:39:39.982 --> 00:39:41.830 A quiet year in 1992. 953 00:39:41.830 --> 00:39:45.320 Very much below normal activity. 954 00:39:45.320 --> 00:39:46.350 If you lived in south Florida, 955 00:39:46.350 --> 00:39:47.970 you will never forget if you lived 956 00:39:47.970 --> 00:39:49.860 through Hurricane Andrew, 957 00:39:49.860 --> 00:39:50.693 that was a category five. 958 00:39:50.693 --> 00:39:52.000 So it's very storm dependent. 959 00:39:52.000 --> 00:39:53.980 It's very dependent on what region you are, 960 00:39:53.980 --> 00:39:57.190 and where you are when these storms are, are developing. 961 00:39:57.190 --> 00:39:59.210 The quietest season could have the right ingredients 962 00:39:59.210 --> 00:40:00.540 and the right stream flow come together 963 00:40:00.540 --> 00:40:03.850 to make that season the worst season you've ever remembered. 964 00:40:03.850 --> 00:40:06.098 So you always have to repair it every year, 965 00:40:06.098 --> 00:40:08.100 no matter what the level of activity, 966 00:40:08.100 --> 00:40:09.800 generally speaking is going to be. 967 00:40:11.116 --> 00:40:14.116 With that I'll field whatever questions that y'all may have. 968 00:40:39.576 --> 00:40:40.910 All right. Sorry about that. 969 00:40:40.910 --> 00:40:43.860 Though, we have a lot of great questions that have come in. 970 00:40:44.760 --> 00:40:46.000 Somebody wanted to know why there 971 00:40:46.000 --> 00:40:48.570 were two storms named, Melissa. 972 00:40:48.570 --> 00:40:50.683 Do storm names get reused? 973 00:40:51.710 --> 00:40:54.105 Yes. It depends. 974 00:40:54.105 --> 00:40:58.350 Some names get retired if they cause enough devastation, 975 00:40:58.350 --> 00:40:59.857 those are voted on each year 976 00:40:59.857 --> 00:41:02.390 by the World Meteorological Organization. 977 00:41:02.390 --> 00:41:04.960 Actually, that group of people is also 978 00:41:04.960 --> 00:41:08.190 what comes up with the list of names. 979 00:41:08.190 --> 00:41:09.790 So yeah, Melissa might've formed 980 00:41:10.790 --> 00:41:13.683 and never had any major impacts, 981 00:41:15.010 --> 00:41:16.120 or minor impacts. 982 00:41:16.120 --> 00:41:19.252 And if that's the case, they will recycle the name 983 00:41:19.252 --> 00:41:21.510 every several years and use it again. 984 00:41:21.510 --> 00:41:22.360 Okay. 985 00:41:24.460 --> 00:41:26.180 All right. 986 00:41:26.180 --> 00:41:29.430 What would you say is the most overlooked 987 00:41:29.430 --> 00:41:31.023 hurricane prep tip? 988 00:41:32.440 --> 00:41:33.840 Hurricane prep tip? 989 00:41:35.370 --> 00:41:36.870 From my experience, 990 00:41:36.870 --> 00:41:39.410 from my own hurricane preparations is... 991 00:41:43.363 --> 00:41:45.083 waiting too long to do things. 992 00:41:46.140 --> 00:41:50.010 I will get my supplies all together, 993 00:41:50.010 --> 00:41:51.633 probably in the next few weeks, 994 00:41:52.710 --> 00:41:54.670 and I'll just hold onto them. 995 00:41:54.670 --> 00:41:57.653 And so what I'll do, is I'll have my bottled water, 996 00:41:58.700 --> 00:42:02.330 I'll have gas for the generator, that'll all be here. 997 00:42:02.330 --> 00:42:05.833 Because if you have a storm, that's like, 998 00:42:05.833 --> 00:42:07.810 might be threatening an area, 999 00:42:07.810 --> 00:42:09.854 if you're lucky enough, 1000 00:42:09.854 --> 00:42:11.318 it might be the first time a storm 1001 00:42:11.318 --> 00:42:12.151 has threatened the region recently. 1002 00:42:12.151 --> 00:42:14.930 And it's been, it's still several days out, 1003 00:42:14.930 --> 00:42:16.680 and you can get to the gas station. 1004 00:42:17.620 --> 00:42:21.610 If you wait too long, and words on the street, good luck. 1005 00:42:21.610 --> 00:42:25.457 We've had storms threatened down here and there's no gas. 1006 00:42:25.457 --> 00:42:28.960 Or you're waiting very long time for gas. 1007 00:42:28.960 --> 00:42:32.023 And it just becomes an absolute obsolete commodity. 1008 00:42:33.470 --> 00:42:35.390 Water is the same way. 1009 00:42:35.390 --> 00:42:37.720 Certain goods on store shelves are the same way. 1010 00:42:37.720 --> 00:42:40.690 You just don't want to wait until that rush 1011 00:42:40.690 --> 00:42:41.990 to get all those supplies. 1012 00:42:46.030 --> 00:42:47.330 Great. Thank you. 1013 00:42:51.480 --> 00:42:53.660 I have another question here. 1014 00:42:53.660 --> 00:42:56.360 Cause you mentioned for Hurricane Hugo, 1015 00:42:56.360 --> 00:42:59.154 you were preparing Bermuda. 1016 00:42:59.154 --> 00:43:03.943 What does working with other countries look like for you? 1017 00:43:04.830 --> 00:43:07.890 Okay. It actually varies from country to country. 1018 00:43:07.890 --> 00:43:11.670 Bermuda last year, for example, we had Hurricane Paulette. 1019 00:43:11.670 --> 00:43:14.040 So we set up actually video webinars 1020 00:43:14.040 --> 00:43:15.390 with them of some of their, 1021 00:43:17.031 --> 00:43:18.923 some of their staff, 1022 00:43:18.923 --> 00:43:23.923 that were trying to handle some of the preparations there. 1023 00:43:24.120 --> 00:43:26.550 So we talked to them a couple of times a day 1024 00:43:26.550 --> 00:43:29.082 and say, "Okay, here's the deal. Here's what's going on. 1025 00:43:29.082 --> 00:43:31.376 Here's some of the uncertainties we're talking about." 1026 00:43:31.376 --> 00:43:33.690 And so we had kind of a teleconference, kind of like this, 1027 00:43:33.690 --> 00:43:35.759 where they could ask questions. 1028 00:43:35.759 --> 00:43:38.940 There's other locations that we might just, 1029 00:43:38.940 --> 00:43:40.093 it might phone call. 1030 00:43:41.120 --> 00:43:44.140 It's up to the countries themselves, 1031 00:43:44.140 --> 00:43:48.100 whether or not to issue a hurricane watch or warning. 1032 00:43:48.100 --> 00:43:50.390 So we asked, we say, "Here's a situation. 1033 00:43:50.390 --> 00:43:53.132 Do you want warnings put up?" 1034 00:43:53.132 --> 00:43:54.180 And so they will say, "Yes, we want it." 1035 00:43:54.180 --> 00:43:56.130 Or they'll call us and say, "Hey, we want it." 1036 00:43:56.130 --> 00:43:57.390 So a lot of the, 1037 00:43:57.390 --> 00:43:59.440 most of these conversations are by phone. 1038 00:44:00.950 --> 00:44:02.950 And so we have some challenges that we face, 1039 00:44:02.950 --> 00:44:04.454 like, for example, 1040 00:44:04.454 --> 00:44:05.590 if you were talking to Mexico, 1041 00:44:05.590 --> 00:44:08.174 or one of the Spanish speaking countries, 1042 00:44:08.174 --> 00:44:10.110 one of our Spanish speakers in the office 1043 00:44:10.110 --> 00:44:13.710 will get on the line and talk to, and coordinate with them, 1044 00:44:13.710 --> 00:44:16.110 what the watch warning situation is going to be. 1045 00:44:17.640 --> 00:44:19.830 Okay. And another question came in, 1046 00:44:19.830 --> 00:44:20.950 it's kind of a little long one. 1047 00:44:20.950 --> 00:44:23.660 So I'm going to read what the person wrote, 1048 00:44:23.660 --> 00:44:26.400 "Isaias last year produced hurricane force wind gusts, 1049 00:44:26.400 --> 00:44:28.435 and much damage over Long Island, 1050 00:44:28.435 --> 00:44:31.410 even though it had moved inland over North Carolina 1051 00:44:31.410 --> 00:44:35.230 past a hundred miles west of L.I., 1052 00:44:35.230 --> 00:44:39.343 and spent many over land before affecting L.I., Long Island. 1053 00:44:41.132 --> 00:44:42.250 Were there reasons-- 1054 00:44:42.250 --> 00:44:45.240 where there unusual reasons for why this type of storm 1055 00:44:45.240 --> 00:44:48.263 remained so long for a long period of time over land? 1056 00:44:49.150 --> 00:44:50.290 Yes. 1057 00:44:50.290 --> 00:44:54.700 So you Isaias had a fairly decent sized wind field 1058 00:44:54.700 --> 00:44:56.570 and some of those, 1059 00:44:56.570 --> 00:44:58.200 some of the inflow into the storm 1060 00:44:58.200 --> 00:45:00.047 was still over the eastern-- 1061 00:45:01.070 --> 00:45:02.030 just off the East Coast. 1062 00:45:02.030 --> 00:45:05.687 So over some of the warm waters of the Gulf Stream, 1063 00:45:05.687 --> 00:45:07.840 of the Western Atlantic for a little bit after landfall, 1064 00:45:07.840 --> 00:45:10.970 also the reason Isaias was accelerating, 1065 00:45:10.970 --> 00:45:12.610 was that it was beginning to interact 1066 00:45:12.610 --> 00:45:16.550 with an upper level trough to the northwest of it. 1067 00:45:16.550 --> 00:45:19.283 And when it has that kind of interaction, a lot of times, 1068 00:45:19.283 --> 00:45:20.950 those storms can, can begin to transition. 1069 00:45:20.950 --> 00:45:23.490 It was, it was slowly transitioning to what we call, 1070 00:45:23.490 --> 00:45:25.297 an extra tropical cyclone. 1071 00:45:25.297 --> 00:45:26.772 And when they do that, 1072 00:45:26.772 --> 00:45:28.300 the surface winds don't necessarily 1073 00:45:28.300 --> 00:45:30.240 diminish as fast as they typically would 1074 00:45:30.240 --> 00:45:33.297 if it was just a classic strong tropical cyclone 1075 00:45:33.297 --> 00:45:35.765 and with friction slowing down the winds. 1076 00:45:35.765 --> 00:45:40.147 So what happens is the winds aloft start to stay strong, 1077 00:45:40.147 --> 00:45:42.554 and those can mix down with the storm, 1078 00:45:42.554 --> 00:45:45.000 as it continually moves north. 1079 00:45:45.000 --> 00:45:47.240 Also as a factor, you'll see, 1080 00:45:47.240 --> 00:45:49.570 even if you saw an image of the wind swath, 1081 00:45:49.570 --> 00:45:52.085 most of the damage was off to the right. 1082 00:45:52.085 --> 00:45:53.062 It was accelerating. 1083 00:45:53.062 --> 00:45:55.243 So it was moving about 25 miles per hour. 1084 00:45:56.719 --> 00:45:59.370 And so you add that to the winds 1085 00:45:59.370 --> 00:46:00.970 when it's moving that direction. 1086 00:46:02.146 --> 00:46:04.054 So if you're on the right hand side of the storm, 1087 00:46:04.054 --> 00:46:05.405 you're gonna get these much stronger winds 1088 00:46:05.405 --> 00:46:06.531 off to the right-hand side. 1089 00:46:06.531 --> 00:46:07.840 So all those are coming to factor 1090 00:46:07.840 --> 00:46:10.230 when it moved past the New York area, 1091 00:46:10.230 --> 00:46:11.920 and in through Virginia and Maryland, 1092 00:46:11.920 --> 00:46:13.820 and every everywhere up there as well. 1093 00:46:14.830 --> 00:46:16.240 What was interesting about Isaias, 1094 00:46:16.240 --> 00:46:19.253 is it is a very prolific tornado maker. 1095 00:46:20.400 --> 00:46:22.643 It spawned 39 tornadoes. 1096 00:46:23.660 --> 00:46:25.670 So there's, and all the way up, 1097 00:46:25.670 --> 00:46:27.000 all the way up through, 1098 00:46:27.000 --> 00:46:29.505 in Connecticut was the farthest north, they had one, 1099 00:46:29.505 --> 00:46:31.100 but in New York had, I think had one as well. 1100 00:46:31.100 --> 00:46:34.620 So because of that interaction with the upper trough 1101 00:46:34.620 --> 00:46:36.623 helped to spawn some of those tornadoes. 1102 00:46:38.600 --> 00:46:39.450 Okay. 1103 00:46:40.380 --> 00:46:42.450 Mark, do you have another question? 1104 00:46:42.450 --> 00:46:45.950 I'm actually got a really interesting question. 1105 00:46:45.950 --> 00:46:48.510 Is there a way to reduce the intensity 1106 00:46:48.510 --> 00:46:51.663 of a hurricane using man-made intervention? 1107 00:46:52.920 --> 00:46:55.220 I haven't read through any studies about it. 1108 00:46:55.220 --> 00:46:56.097 So I don't-- 1109 00:46:57.280 --> 00:46:59.530 Personally, I don't know of any way to do it. 1110 00:47:01.470 --> 00:47:04.141 Fair enough. I was just super curious myself. 1111 00:47:04.141 --> 00:47:05.690 (Mark laughs) 1112 00:47:05.690 --> 00:47:08.633 And I think if we knew a way, we'd probably try it. 1113 00:47:09.970 --> 00:47:10.803 Right! 1114 00:47:10.803 --> 00:47:12.858 Here's another question, I think maybe, 1115 00:47:12.858 --> 00:47:15.340 is a little more reasonable to answer but... 1116 00:47:15.340 --> 00:47:18.150 What about storms on the Pacific coast? 1117 00:47:18.150 --> 00:47:21.493 How is that tracked like it is on the East Coast? 1118 00:47:23.070 --> 00:47:26.040 So if we're talking about the Pacific coast 1119 00:47:26.040 --> 00:47:28.048 of the United States and Mexico, 1120 00:47:28.048 --> 00:47:30.710 the Hurricane Center covers that area as well. 1121 00:47:30.710 --> 00:47:34.950 We cover out the 140 west, at the hurricane center in Miami. 1122 00:47:34.950 --> 00:47:37.230 So anything that forms in that area, 1123 00:47:37.230 --> 00:47:39.020 and is tracking in that area, 1124 00:47:39.020 --> 00:47:41.760 we'll do the same process we do for the Atlantic. 1125 00:47:41.760 --> 00:47:44.550 So we'll do the track and intensity radius forecasts, 1126 00:47:44.550 --> 00:47:45.630 do the analysis of those. 1127 00:47:45.630 --> 00:47:48.700 We'll do tropical weather outlooks for those areas too. 1128 00:47:48.700 --> 00:47:50.875 Same goes with the watches and warnings. 1129 00:47:50.875 --> 00:47:52.256 If something's gonna hit Baja, California, 1130 00:47:52.256 --> 00:47:55.130 we'll talk to Mexico, and coordinate with them, 1131 00:47:55.130 --> 00:47:57.370 what they want to do about that. 1132 00:47:57.370 --> 00:47:59.730 Fortunately, we rarely, if ever, 1133 00:47:59.730 --> 00:48:02.160 have to worry about Southern California. 1134 00:48:02.160 --> 00:48:04.430 Typically storms are dying up before they reach there. 1135 00:48:04.430 --> 00:48:07.943 We have things in place in case they do reach there. 1136 00:48:09.320 --> 00:48:11.270 And if, once it crosses 140 west, 1137 00:48:11.270 --> 00:48:15.758 that becomes Hawaii, Central Pacific Hurricane Center, 1138 00:48:15.758 --> 00:48:16.840 which is in Hawaii. 1139 00:48:16.840 --> 00:48:19.623 They handle the forecast at that point in time. 1140 00:48:20.460 --> 00:48:23.010 And if you go further, even further west, 1141 00:48:23.010 --> 00:48:24.540 a joint type of warning center 1142 00:48:25.916 --> 00:48:27.516 handles the storms far out west. 1143 00:48:28.600 --> 00:48:29.450 Okay. 1144 00:48:30.297 --> 00:48:31.910 Another question we have is can Andy speak 1145 00:48:31.910 --> 00:48:36.776 to the role of climate change and hurricane formation, 1146 00:48:36.776 --> 00:48:39.710 and hurricane intensity? 1147 00:48:39.710 --> 00:48:42.020 That's a study that's still undergoing, 1148 00:48:42.020 --> 00:48:44.320 it's an undergoing study right now. 1149 00:48:44.320 --> 00:48:46.580 There's still data being collected. 1150 00:48:46.580 --> 00:48:48.610 There's still data being looked at. 1151 00:48:48.610 --> 00:48:50.420 There's been, I think a couple of articles that came out, 1152 00:48:50.420 --> 00:48:52.123 that maybe suggested that, 1153 00:48:53.114 --> 00:48:54.553 what was it that they get? 1154 00:48:55.648 --> 00:48:57.564 It could cause storms to be... 1155 00:48:57.564 --> 00:49:00.660 What was it, was it slower moving? 1156 00:49:00.660 --> 00:49:02.290 There's different, different aspects. 1157 00:49:02.290 --> 00:49:04.410 A lot of it is statistically driven. 1158 00:49:04.410 --> 00:49:06.930 They try to determine over recent years, what's, 1159 00:49:06.930 --> 00:49:09.130 how the hurricanes have changed. 1160 00:49:09.130 --> 00:49:12.600 And so I think there was one stat that shows 1161 00:49:12.600 --> 00:49:14.090 there might them a moving a little slower, 1162 00:49:14.090 --> 00:49:16.490 therefore can cause heavier rainfall. 1163 00:49:16.490 --> 00:49:21.307 Which was an interesting aspect to think about. 1164 00:49:21.307 --> 00:49:23.560 So they're looking at the different, 1165 00:49:23.560 --> 00:49:25.620 they're looking at how strong the storms are, 1166 00:49:25.620 --> 00:49:28.790 how big the storms are, trends over time, 1167 00:49:28.790 --> 00:49:31.970 and trying to pick up on these trends 1168 00:49:31.970 --> 00:49:34.930 and how they could be connected back to climate. 1169 00:49:34.930 --> 00:49:38.732 It's not a very clear signal at this point in time. 1170 00:49:38.732 --> 00:49:40.480 I think one of the biggest challenges 1171 00:49:40.480 --> 00:49:43.310 is that there's not a lot of data, as far as like, 1172 00:49:43.310 --> 00:49:44.720 how many years of storms have been, 1173 00:49:44.720 --> 00:49:47.010 that we've been able to track. 1174 00:49:47.010 --> 00:49:48.570 One of the challenges faced when trying 1175 00:49:48.570 --> 00:49:52.100 to do those studies is the satellite era. 1176 00:49:52.100 --> 00:49:55.093 Satellite era is only several decades long, 1177 00:49:56.190 --> 00:49:59.560 and even so satellites had gotten better, 1178 00:49:59.560 --> 00:50:01.130 more higher resolution. 1179 00:50:01.130 --> 00:50:04.040 And so something that might've been out there in the middle 1180 00:50:04.040 --> 00:50:06.030 of the Atlantic, kind of obscure kind of uncertain, 1181 00:50:06.030 --> 00:50:07.680 whether or not it's a storm, 1182 00:50:07.680 --> 00:50:10.840 even 30 years ago with the high resolution satellite 1183 00:50:10.840 --> 00:50:13.936 and data we have, like scatterometer data, wind data. 1184 00:50:13.936 --> 00:50:15.930 We might say, "Oh, that's a storm." 1185 00:50:15.930 --> 00:50:19.600 To what 30 years ago, might not be able to figure that out, 1186 00:50:19.600 --> 00:50:22.270 and might not have ever been designated as a storm. 1187 00:50:22.270 --> 00:50:24.163 And so the challenge is, 1188 00:50:24.163 --> 00:50:26.660 some of this increase in storms 1189 00:50:26.660 --> 00:50:28.873 might because we're seeing them better. 1190 00:50:30.390 --> 00:50:33.130 Also, it has that intensity factor as well, 1191 00:50:33.130 --> 00:50:35.770 because if you have no data over the ocean, 1192 00:50:35.770 --> 00:50:37.702 and you're doing an estimate, 1193 00:50:37.702 --> 00:50:39.133 where if you have the actual data, 1194 00:50:39.133 --> 00:50:40.890 you might be able to hone in on the intensity. 1195 00:50:40.890 --> 00:50:44.360 So it's an undergoing process because we have to have enough 1196 00:50:45.402 --> 00:50:47.750 time to collect the data of the... 1197 00:50:47.750 --> 00:50:50.360 the more accurate data years that we've had of late, 1198 00:50:50.360 --> 00:50:53.363 and see if there's any actual trendable changes in that. 1199 00:50:55.000 --> 00:50:56.160 Okay. And Mark, 1200 00:50:56.160 --> 00:50:58.040 I think we have time for about one more question. 1201 00:50:58.040 --> 00:51:00.893 Do you have another question you want to pop out there? 1202 00:51:02.415 --> 00:51:05.080 Okay. This one's really good. I really like it. 1203 00:51:05.080 --> 00:51:07.730 How do you track the history of a storm, 1204 00:51:07.730 --> 00:51:10.538 or is there a way to track the history of a storm, 1205 00:51:10.538 --> 00:51:11.371 pre-satellite? 1206 00:51:13.580 --> 00:51:17.210 So, some of the old databases, these don't... 1207 00:51:17.210 --> 00:51:20.093 Pre-satellite, basically you have, if there was a buoy, 1208 00:51:21.086 --> 00:51:24.920 if there was a ship, or if it hit land, 1209 00:51:24.920 --> 00:51:28.360 I think a lot of the data going into the pre-satellite era 1210 00:51:28.360 --> 00:51:30.650 came from the word of mouth. 1211 00:51:30.650 --> 00:51:34.420 If it grazed an area of land that can be communicated, 1212 00:51:34.420 --> 00:51:36.870 how bad the conditions were at those pinpoints of land, 1213 00:51:36.870 --> 00:51:40.360 along wherever that storm might've been affecting, 1214 00:51:40.360 --> 00:51:44.243 but ships, the ships that were affected by it. 1215 00:51:46.020 --> 00:51:47.550 Unfortunately back before the satellite era, 1216 00:51:47.550 --> 00:51:49.381 they could still relay it, 1217 00:51:49.381 --> 00:51:52.250 before satellite era you still had methods to communicate. 1218 00:51:52.250 --> 00:51:54.050 So you can get information that way. 1219 00:51:54.900 --> 00:51:57.100 But before the satellite era was much more challenging. 1220 00:51:57.100 --> 00:52:00.555 And I remember reading some of the discussions 1221 00:52:00.555 --> 00:52:03.050 from pre-satellite era storms, 1222 00:52:03.050 --> 00:52:06.119 and they would allude to, you know, 1223 00:52:06.119 --> 00:52:08.480 they know there's a storm out there, 1224 00:52:08.480 --> 00:52:10.610 but not sure how strong, 1225 00:52:10.610 --> 00:52:11.640 but then, you know, 1226 00:52:11.640 --> 00:52:13.940 you were aware that there's something out there 1227 00:52:13.940 --> 00:52:16.110 and might be heading your way. 1228 00:52:16.110 --> 00:52:17.280 So that the big challenge, 1229 00:52:17.280 --> 00:52:19.620 as far as preparation is concerned, 1230 00:52:19.620 --> 00:52:21.630 and that's why you hear about, I think, 1231 00:52:21.630 --> 00:52:24.200 the Galveston storm back in the early 1900s... 1232 00:52:24.200 --> 00:52:27.480 It was hard to know it was coming, 1233 00:52:27.480 --> 00:52:32.480 till it's almost there, especially, if you're not sure. 1234 00:52:32.670 --> 00:52:34.600 You know, think about a Micheal situation. 1235 00:52:34.600 --> 00:52:37.974 Where there was a tropical storm two days prior, 1236 00:52:37.974 --> 00:52:42.974 and it was become a CAT-5 at landfall, unless you had a, 1237 00:52:43.034 --> 00:52:45.608 if you're lucky enough to have a ship in the Gulf of Mexico, 1238 00:52:45.608 --> 00:52:47.585 or people in north Mexico to relay information like, 1239 00:52:47.585 --> 00:52:48.770 "Hey, something's getting bad out here." 1240 00:52:48.770 --> 00:52:50.380 You wouldn't have much notice before something 1241 00:52:50.380 --> 00:52:52.063 like that would have made landfall. 1242 00:52:54.382 --> 00:52:55.330 Okay. Good questions. 1243 00:52:55.330 --> 00:52:56.690 Well, we're sorry if we weren't able 1244 00:52:56.690 --> 00:52:58.604 to get to your question, 1245 00:52:58.604 --> 00:53:00.410 but we will send all of the questions to Andy. 1246 00:53:00.410 --> 00:53:02.330 And so he can at least see the questions 1247 00:53:02.330 --> 00:53:03.530 that you were asking. 1248 00:53:03.530 --> 00:53:06.260 And if you want to ask Andy another question, 1249 00:53:06.260 --> 00:53:07.440 or if you feel like you just want 1250 00:53:07.440 --> 00:53:09.641 to get an answer directly from Andy, 1251 00:53:09.641 --> 00:53:11.930 you can also email him at his email address, 1252 00:53:11.930 --> 00:53:15.957 line:15% there at the bottom of the screen, Andrew.Latto@noaa.gov. 1253 00:53:15.957 --> 00:53:19.100 And if you haven't downloaded Andy's bio in the chat box, 1254 00:53:19.100 --> 00:53:20.930 be sure to do so now, 1255 00:53:20.930 --> 00:53:23.100 because in the bio you'll find the various links 1256 00:53:23.100 --> 00:53:24.590 for the National Hurricane Center, 1257 00:53:24.590 --> 00:53:26.040 the hurricane tracking charts, 1258 00:53:26.040 --> 00:53:28.250 the hurricane preparedness week and more. 1259 00:53:28.250 --> 00:53:30.592 And if, and as I said, if we didn't get to your question, 1260 00:53:30.592 --> 00:53:32.960 you can email Andy or... 1261 00:53:35.360 --> 00:53:37.230 or email him directly. 1262 00:53:37.230 --> 00:53:42.160 Okay, and we wanted to do a pitch for hurricanes at home. 1263 00:53:42.160 --> 00:53:44.854 It's coming up and it says, 1264 00:53:44.854 --> 00:53:46.372 So if you're a teacher or just want 1265 00:53:46.372 --> 00:53:47.320 to learn more about hurricanes, 1266 00:53:47.320 --> 00:53:49.291 you can be sure to check out 1267 00:53:49.291 --> 00:53:50.750 the National Hurricane Season's upcoming webinars. 1268 00:53:50.750 --> 00:53:53.520 And they are presented both in English and Spanish. 1269 00:53:53.520 --> 00:53:56.550 And there is a handout in the chat with more information, 1270 00:53:56.550 --> 00:53:58.781 and the links for these registrations. 1271 00:53:58.781 --> 00:54:01.550 There is gonna be one at 4:00 PM 1272 00:54:01.550 --> 00:54:03.300 on Wednesday, May the 12th, 1273 00:54:03.300 --> 00:54:06.483 and another one in English at 5:00 PM on May 18th. 1274 00:54:07.321 --> 00:54:11.670 And then the Spanish one will be on May 13th at 4:00 PM. 1275 00:54:14.500 --> 00:54:16.822 Okay, and also be sure to check out 1276 00:54:16.822 --> 00:54:21.447 the NOAA Sea Chart webinar series. 1277 00:54:21.447 --> 00:54:25.653 Sorry, I had the wrong picture with the wrong... 1278 00:54:25.653 --> 00:54:26.832 No, this is correct. Sorry. 1279 00:54:26.832 --> 00:54:28.332 And the NOAA Sea Chart Webinar Series, 1280 00:54:28.332 --> 00:54:30.140 the link to the series is also in the chat box. 1281 00:54:30.140 --> 00:54:32.850 And this is for hurricane awareness webinars. 1282 00:54:32.850 --> 00:54:34.250 So you'll see, they have quite a few 1283 00:54:34.250 --> 00:54:36.013 of the really good ones coming up. 1284 00:54:37.920 --> 00:54:38.950 And then once captioned, 1285 00:54:38.950 --> 00:54:40.740 a video recording of this presentation 1286 00:54:40.740 --> 00:54:44.090 will be available on the sanctuary's webinar archive page. 1287 00:54:44.090 --> 00:54:47.150 Then that URL is at the top up there, but don't worry, 1288 00:54:47.150 --> 00:54:49.590 we're going to send you a link to it. 1289 00:54:49.590 --> 00:54:51.440 In addition, the webinar will be archived 1290 00:54:51.440 --> 00:54:53.250 on Monitor's National Marine Sanctuary. 1291 00:54:53.250 --> 00:54:56.343 You can click on the multimedia section of that 1292 00:54:56.343 --> 00:54:58.220 in the tool bar to access the webinar box. 1293 00:54:58.220 --> 00:55:00.709 You'll also find future webinars in that same section. 1294 00:55:00.709 --> 00:55:02.410 And as I said, don't worry, 1295 00:55:02.410 --> 00:55:06.040 we're gonna send all this information to you in an email, 1296 00:55:06.040 --> 00:55:07.933 once the recording is ready to view. 1297 00:55:09.960 --> 00:55:13.630 And on May 6th, that's on this coming Thursday at 4:00 PM, 1298 00:55:13.630 --> 00:55:16.410 Submerged North Carolina will present an educator workshop 1299 00:55:16.410 --> 00:55:19.470 on World War II off the North Carolina Coast, 1300 00:55:19.470 --> 00:55:21.540 and why this area is where the war 1301 00:55:21.540 --> 00:55:23.520 truly came home to America. 1302 00:55:23.520 --> 00:55:24.730 I'm gonna be the presenter, 1303 00:55:24.730 --> 00:55:26.650 and I will highlight the Battle of the Atlantic, 1304 00:55:26.650 --> 00:55:29.420 and show how to access free curriculum, photos, and more. 1305 00:55:29.420 --> 00:55:31.890 And although this webinar is aimed at educators, 1306 00:55:31.890 --> 00:55:33.693 all are welcome to attend. 1307 00:55:35.660 --> 00:55:38.930 And coming up on May the 11th at 1:00 PM, 1308 00:55:38.930 --> 00:55:40.530 we have on - Eastern time, 1309 00:55:40.530 --> 00:55:42.800 we have Dr. Sal Mercogliano, 1310 00:55:42.800 --> 00:55:45.920 Assistant Professor of History at Campbell University. 1311 00:55:45.920 --> 00:55:47.620 And you're going to learn how and why 1312 00:55:47.620 --> 00:55:48.760 the American East Coast 1313 00:55:48.760 --> 00:55:51.180 became a tragic strategic battlefield. 1314 00:55:51.180 --> 00:55:52.700 And the first five months after 1315 00:55:52.700 --> 00:55:54.420 the U S entered World War II. 1316 00:55:54.420 --> 00:55:57.425 You're gonna learn about the mistakes that men made, 1317 00:55:57.425 --> 00:55:58.520 and who made them, 1318 00:55:58.520 --> 00:55:59.400 and the solutions found to turn 1319 00:55:59.400 --> 00:56:01.303 the tide in the German U-boat war. 1320 00:56:03.390 --> 00:56:05.020 We have several others coming up, 1321 00:56:05.020 --> 00:56:08.320 in the Submerged North Carolina series, you can see there. 1322 00:56:08.320 --> 00:56:10.930 We have conservation of the USS Monitor Artifacts 1323 00:56:10.930 --> 00:56:12.110 with Will Hoffman. 1324 00:56:12.110 --> 00:56:14.750 We have the Lake Phelps Canoes with Tim Smith, 1325 00:56:14.750 --> 00:56:16.840 and then we have Engineering in the Classrooms 1326 00:56:16.840 --> 00:56:19.140 with ROVs, which I will present. 1327 00:56:19.140 --> 00:56:20.800 And then we have David Cranford, 1328 00:56:20.800 --> 00:56:21.820 who will be talking about 1329 00:56:21.820 --> 00:56:24.773 North Carolina Fish Weir Archeology Project. 1330 00:56:27.570 --> 00:56:29.090 Now, if you enjoyed this webinar, 1331 00:56:29.090 --> 00:56:30.290 be sure to check out others 1332 00:56:30.290 --> 00:56:32.710 in the National Marine Sanctuary Webinar Series 1333 00:56:32.710 --> 00:56:34.990 on May 20th at 6:00 PM. 1334 00:56:34.990 --> 00:56:36.480 You can join Jared Underwood, 1335 00:56:36.480 --> 00:56:39.110 US Fish and Wildlife Service Superintendent 1336 00:56:39.110 --> 00:56:41.507 for Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument 1337 00:56:41.507 --> 00:56:45.270 to learn how millions of sea birds use the remote atolls 1338 00:56:45.270 --> 00:56:47.390 and islands that are found around Hawaii 1339 00:56:47.390 --> 00:56:48.953 and the central Pacific ocean. 1340 00:56:51.640 --> 00:56:53.470 And lastly, as you exit the webinar, 1341 00:56:53.470 --> 00:56:56.570 there is a short survey for formal and informal educators. 1342 00:56:56.570 --> 00:56:59.400 If you are an educator, NOAA would really appreciate it, 1343 00:56:59.400 --> 00:57:00.760 if you would just take a minute or two, 1344 00:57:00.760 --> 00:57:01.760 to complete the survey. 1345 00:57:01.760 --> 00:57:04.420 I think there's five questions. So it's very short. 1346 00:57:04.420 --> 00:57:06.030 Your answers will help NOAA develop 1347 00:57:06.030 --> 00:57:07.920 future webinars to meet your needs, 1348 00:57:07.920 --> 00:57:09.760 and your participation is voluntary, 1349 00:57:09.760 --> 00:57:12.060 and your answers will be completely anonymous. 1350 00:57:15.070 --> 00:57:17.970 So we thank you for joining us once again. 1351 00:57:17.970 --> 00:57:20.260 And we thank Andy for a really great presentation, 1352 00:57:20.260 --> 00:57:21.140 very informative, 1353 00:57:21.140 --> 00:57:23.740 and just very timely with hurricane season coming up. 1354 00:57:23.740 --> 00:57:25.549 So thank you, Andy. 1355 00:57:25.549 --> 00:57:27.250 And thank you for taking the time to join us today. 1356 00:57:27.250 --> 00:57:30.280 And if you live in a hurricane prone area, get prepared! 1357 00:57:30.280 --> 00:57:33.030 Have a wonderful day, and this concludes the broadcast.