WEBVTT Kind: captions Language: en 00:00:00.320 --> 00:00:04.220 - All right. I would like to welcome everybody, today, 00:00:04.220 --> 00:00:08.700 to the National Marine Sanctuaries webinar series. 00:00:08.700 --> 00:00:12.420 Many of you are returning visitors. We're so pleased that you're back with us 00:00:12.420 --> 00:00:16.580 and enjoying all of the fresh science content that we're bringing to you 00:00:16.580 --> 00:00:18.820 through this distance learning platform. 00:00:19.320 --> 00:00:24.880 This series is hosted by the NOAA Office of National Marine Sanctuaries 00:00:24.880 --> 00:00:29.120 and we, actually, find it a great way to connect with formal and informal educators, 00:00:29.120 --> 00:00:33.360 with students, which are middle school high school college age, 00:00:33.360 --> 00:00:37.380 as well as, even families, in these new times that we live in 00:00:37.380 --> 00:00:41.720 and any interested party that would like to learn about these topics. 00:00:41.720 --> 00:00:46.020 So the webinar series provides you educational and scientific expertise, 00:00:46.020 --> 00:00:50.580 as well as resources and training to support ocean and climate literacy. 00:00:51.280 --> 00:00:55.080 So just a few details about the webinar platform. 00:00:55.080 --> 00:00:59.680 During the presentation, all attendees are in listen only mode. 00:00:59.680 --> 00:01:04.380 If you have any questions or technical issues, you can type them into the question box 00:01:04.380 --> 00:01:07.000 in your go to webinar control panel. 00:01:07.000 --> 00:01:09.980 And we'll be monitoring those incoming questions and issues 00:01:09.980 --> 00:01:12.280 and respond to them, as soon as we can. 00:01:12.280 --> 00:01:18.940 We have over 750 registrants for today's webinar, which is very exciting. 00:01:18.940 --> 00:01:22.980 We will be recording the session and making it available on our website. 00:01:22.980 --> 00:01:26.500 We have a webinar archive page. So if you're new to our series, 00:01:26.500 --> 00:01:28.620 we've been doing this for about five years 00:01:28.620 --> 00:01:33.220 and there is a whole wide variety of wonderful topics that might interest you. 00:01:33.220 --> 00:01:37.260 From Hawaiian monk seals to soundscapes 00:01:37.260 --> 00:01:43.820 and passive acoustic monitoring. There's a whole bunch of topics available. 00:01:44.240 --> 00:01:51.480 But, as part of my intro, I wanted to share a little bit about NOAA and the National Marine Sanctuaries. 00:01:51.480 --> 00:01:56.060 Here is a network of underwater parks 00:01:56.060 --> 00:02:02.220 that encompass more than 600,000 square miles of ocean and Great Lakes waters. 00:02:02.220 --> 00:02:06.560 So each of these dots on the map represent one of these special underwater parks. 00:02:06.560 --> 00:02:09.680 We call them National Marine Sanctuaries. 00:02:09.680 --> 00:02:12.040 Four in the state of California. 00:02:12.040 --> 00:02:15.860 Today, we're going to be zooming in up north of that in the pacific northwest, 00:02:15.860 --> 00:02:19.320 near our Olympic Coast National Marine Sanctuary. 00:02:20.020 --> 00:02:26.420 So from the Florida Keys to Lake Huron in our Thunder Bay site, all the way to the south pacific, 00:02:26.420 --> 00:02:29.240 our National Marine Sanctuary of American Samoa. 00:02:29.240 --> 00:02:36.420 These are places that are designated to we do resource management, research, 00:02:36.420 --> 00:02:42.420 monitoring, education and outreach. And we're mandated to do that through an Act of Congress. 00:02:42.420 --> 00:02:46.480 And so these areas are set aside for a whole variety of reasons. 00:02:46.480 --> 00:02:51.380 It could be ecological or conservation value of these special ocean areas, 00:02:51.380 --> 00:02:56.760 it could be the cultural or maritime heritage or archaeological value of these sites. 00:02:56.760 --> 00:03:00.320 We protect a lot of shipwrecks, among other beautiful areas. 00:03:00.320 --> 00:03:04.540 So National Marine Sanctuaries and Marine National Monuments 00:03:04.540 --> 00:03:07.320 help protect the ocean and the Great Lakes. 00:03:07.920 --> 00:03:11.060 And we like to consider them living classrooms. 00:03:11.060 --> 00:03:17.020 It's a place where visitors, like yourselves, can see, touch and learn about these underwater treasures. 00:03:18.040 --> 00:03:19.020 So with that, 00:03:19.640 --> 00:03:21.600 Let's introduce our hosts, today. 00:03:21.600 --> 00:03:26.440 I'm one of them. My name is Claire Fackler and I'm the national education liaison 00:03:26.440 --> 00:03:29.860 for the NOAA Office of National Marine Sanctuaries. 00:03:29.860 --> 00:03:35.000 I'm sitting here in Santa Barbara, California, where we're experiencing our own heat wave, today. 00:03:35.000 --> 00:03:42.500 Ray, kind of up over almost 90 degrees. So hot for us, in our Mediterranean climate, down here. 00:03:42.500 --> 00:03:47.180 And then my co-worker, Jacqueline Laverdure, is the education coordinator 00:03:47.180 --> 00:03:52.820 from the Olympic Coast National Marine Sanctuary, and she is up in the Pacific Northwest. 00:03:52.820 --> 00:03:56.840 I would also like to let you know that we have Chris Butler Minor, 00:03:56.840 --> 00:04:01.480 who is the volunteer coordinator at Olympic Coast National Marine Sanctuary. 00:04:01.480 --> 00:04:05.520 And she's going to say a few words before I introduce our speaker, today, 00:04:05.520 --> 00:04:07.900 about this speaker series. 00:04:09.520 --> 00:04:13.560 - Great, thank you, Claire. So as Claire mentioned, 00:04:13.560 --> 00:04:20.880 this is a part of a speaker series that we co-host with the Feiro Marine Life Center, 00:04:20.880 --> 00:04:23.200 here in Port Angeles, Washington, 00:04:23.200 --> 00:04:29.860 and are frequently joined with by the Peninsula College STEM Club 00:04:29.860 --> 00:04:35.460 to bring to you marine based topics from local experts. 00:04:35.460 --> 00:04:37.760 And we're so pleased you could join us, today. 00:04:40.740 --> 00:04:44.620 I hope you enjoyed as much as we enjoyed pulling this together for you. 00:04:45.520 --> 00:04:51.220 - Great, so just to clarify for everybody, our webinar series now is hosting many of our events 00:04:51.220 --> 00:04:55.020 that would have taken place in actual theaters, around the country, 00:04:55.020 --> 00:05:02.060 as a way to bring the this information to a larger audience, during our shelter at home orders. 00:05:02.060 --> 00:05:05.980 So with that, let me go ahead and introduce Dr Jan Newton. 00:05:05.980 --> 00:05:11.280 She is a senior principal oceanographer with the applied physics laboratory 00:05:11.280 --> 00:05:13.120 at the University of Washington. 00:05:13.120 --> 00:05:18.120 She's an affiliate professor with the University of Washington School of Oceanography 00:05:18.120 --> 00:05:21.160 and the school of marine and environmental affairs. 00:05:21.820 --> 00:05:23.820 Dr. Newton is an executive director 00:05:23.820 --> 00:05:28.300 of the Northwest Association of Networked Ocean Observing Systems 00:05:28.300 --> 00:05:33.900 and the United States IOOS, the Integrated Ocean Observing System Regional Association 00:05:33.900 --> 00:05:35.860 for the Pacific Northwest. 00:05:36.460 --> 00:05:42.260 Jan is a biological oceanographer, whose research is on the physica,l chemical and biological 00:05:42.260 --> 00:05:45.380 dynamics of Puget Sound and coastal Washington, 00:05:45.380 --> 00:05:50.160 including understanding the effects from climate and humans on water properties. 00:05:50.160 --> 00:05:52.000 She's working to build capacity 00:05:52.000 --> 00:05:57.220 to observe ocean acidification and its effects on both local and global scales. 00:05:57.220 --> 00:06:01.640 And Jan is also co-director of the Washington Ocean Acidification Center 00:06:01.640 --> 00:06:08.080 at the University of Washington, and the co-chair of the Global Ocean Acidification Observing Network. 00:06:08.080 --> 00:06:12.480 So we are so pleased to have to have Dr. Jan Newton with us, today. 00:06:12.480 --> 00:06:19.400 As you can see, based on her bio, she is actively involved and is willing and interested in 00:06:19.400 --> 00:06:21.780 sharing this information and research with you. 00:06:21.780 --> 00:06:22.960 So thank you, Jan. 00:06:23.720 --> 00:06:25.320 - Thank you so much, Claire. 00:06:25.320 --> 00:06:29.060 Hi, everyone, and welcome to my dining room. 00:06:29.460 --> 00:06:37.960 I'm so pleased that we could all share this time, together, to go over this information 00:06:37.960 --> 00:06:41.240 about marine heatwaves in the Pacific Northwest. 00:06:41.240 --> 00:06:50.980 And, how do i not see myself? Let's see. It is covering up some of my lies. There we go. 00:06:50.980 --> 00:06:54.540 Okay, so that should be better. 00:06:54.540 --> 00:07:02.220 All right. before I get started Iwant to thank everybodys for being here 00:07:02.220 --> 00:07:05.860 and also to thank some specific people whose names you see, here. 00:07:06.040 --> 00:07:11.820 Toby Garfield, Steph Moore, Dillon Amaya Hillary Scannell, Nick Bond and Beth Curry. 00:07:11.820 --> 00:07:18.780 These scientists have given presentations on marine heat waves or are leaders in the field of study 00:07:18.780 --> 00:07:23.920 and have definitely contributed to this presentation, which you're going to hear from me, today. 00:07:23.920 --> 00:07:31.120 So with that, we'll get started and this is how I outlined the presentation for today. 00:07:31.120 --> 00:07:34.240 Talk about, first of all, what is a marine heat wave 00:07:34.240 --> 00:07:36.940 and then what do we really know about them. 00:07:36.940 --> 00:07:40.320 You know, what are the mechanisms that cause them to occur. 00:07:40.320 --> 00:07:45.280 What are some of the biological effects and then what happens in the near shore? 00:07:45.280 --> 00:07:50.600 So that's what I plan to cover, and the exciting thing about this webinar is that 00:07:50.600 --> 00:07:56.060 there's this interaction that we can have with the audience. It's called the audience poll 00:07:56.060 --> 00:07:58.700 and Jacqueline is going to be running those. 00:07:58.700 --> 00:08:03.200 So the very first poll is ready to go, now. So Jacqueline, could you launch it? 00:08:08.880 --> 00:08:10.300 - [Claire] All right, Jacqueline. 00:08:11.480 --> 00:08:14.420 - Okay, so we have the first poll launched. 00:08:14.420 --> 00:08:19.680 This is how familiar are you with the causes of marine heat wave? 00:08:20.680 --> 00:08:25.260 Go ahead and use your mouse to click on your answer. 00:08:25.900 --> 00:08:29.320 Getting a bunch of answers in. Wonderful. You guys are very attentive. 00:08:32.080 --> 00:08:35.660 Okay, I'm gonna get the results, here. 00:08:42.240 --> 00:08:47.120 And all right, those are coming in 00:08:47.120 --> 00:08:47.920 - [Claire] Perfect. 00:08:49.920 --> 00:08:51.980 So it looks like we have... 00:08:55.400 --> 00:09:02.480 16 percent are very familiar, 50 percent say they think they know the gist and 00:09:02.480 --> 00:09:04.600 34 percent not really. 00:09:05.520 --> 00:09:08.420 - Okay excellent - I'm gonna go ahead and close that out 00:09:10.400 --> 00:09:11.120 - Great. 00:09:11.120 --> 00:09:12.940 thank you so much Jacqueline. 00:09:12.940 --> 00:09:17.320 Good. I'm glad that this is the distribution we have 00:09:17.320 --> 00:09:21.580 and hopefully you'll you'll learn a lot in this that you may not have already known. 00:09:22.080 --> 00:09:22.720 So 00:09:25.440 --> 00:09:31.260 Going to the next slide. So, here is the fundamental definition of a marine heatwave. 00:09:31.260 --> 00:09:35.040 This was defined in 2016. 00:09:35.040 --> 00:09:41.420 A marine heat wave is defined when seawater temperatures exceed 00:09:41.420 --> 00:09:48.160 a seasonally varying threshold-- so some threshold like the 90th percentile is typical-- 00:09:48.160 --> 00:09:50.880 for at least five consecutive days. 00:09:50.880 --> 00:09:59.120 And so this little graphic down in the bottom is showing what Alistair Hobday and several colleagues 00:09:59.120 --> 00:10:03.700 put together this hierarchical approach to defining marine heat waves. 00:10:03.700 --> 00:10:10.600 So that green line, says climatological mean, that's the average that's what normal, typical is. 00:10:10.600 --> 00:10:14.320 Okay, this is showing you temperature over time. 00:10:14.320 --> 00:10:18.820 Now, that green line, above the blue line. is some threshold, 00:10:18.820 --> 00:10:22.360 and in this case, let's say it's the 90 percentile. 00:10:22.360 --> 00:10:28.540 And then the black line is the data and you see the data is varying, wiggling around. 00:10:28.540 --> 00:10:35.500 And we see that there's some spikes that go above the green line and they're shown in pink. 00:10:35.500 --> 00:10:39.600 Those are heat spikes, but you can see it went up and then it went down, right? 00:10:39.600 --> 00:10:44.040 And then it went up again and then it went down. That was not sustained. 00:10:44.040 --> 00:10:50.960 But then, when we get to the red shaded data, where it says start date for the heat wave, 00:10:50.960 --> 00:10:53.780 it went up and it kept going. 00:10:53.780 --> 00:10:57.980 And it doesn't have the days on here, but it says that it's more than five days. 00:10:57.980 --> 00:11:04.320 So that is the heat wave. It needs to be exceptional and it needs to last, okay. 00:11:05.360 --> 00:11:12.420 All right, so, going forward, as more and more heat waves were observed, 00:11:12.420 --> 00:11:20.600 Hobday and the several colleagues produced another paper in 2018 00:11:20.600 --> 00:11:27.120 that then classified marine heatwaves. And here you see strong, severe, extreme. 00:11:27.120 --> 00:11:33.300 So I'm not going to go into all of the details, but you can see on the graphic on the right, 00:11:33.300 --> 00:11:38.180 it says two times the threshold, three times the threshold, four times the threshold. 00:11:38.180 --> 00:11:44.620 So it's really those categories are just based on on how much they exceeded that threshold. 00:11:44.620 --> 00:11:47.660 And so you can see for the great barrier reef one-- 00:11:47.660 --> 00:11:52.000 I need to get this out of my way so I can see the slides-- 00:11:53.840 --> 00:11:58.660 in 2016, that was a strong one. 00:11:58.660 --> 00:12:06.580 Our northeast pacific blob from the 2013/'14/'15 event was severe. 00:12:06.580 --> 00:12:10.220 And one in Western Australia in 2011 was extreme. 00:12:10.220 --> 00:12:13.220 And so it's just the intensity that has varied. 00:12:14.000 --> 00:12:14.700 Okay. 00:12:15.940 --> 00:12:20.540 This is another graphic that is really fascinating, also from Hobday's work, 00:12:20.540 --> 00:12:26.120 and it's showing you the frequency of publications by the year. 00:12:26.120 --> 00:12:31.260 And from 1990 to 1999, you can see that's the first histogram, 00:12:31.260 --> 00:12:33.620 and then we march through every year. 00:12:33.620 --> 00:12:40.400 And it really was around 2012, after the very severe marine heat wave in Australia, 00:12:40.400 --> 00:12:43.980 that they're starting to be more and more publication. 00:12:43.980 --> 00:12:50.380 And then, of course, after the classifications and more heatwaves, this has just increased. 00:12:50.380 --> 00:12:56.420 So it's relatively new and that's telling us something about the mechanisms involved. 00:12:56.420 --> 00:12:57.340 And we'll get to that. 00:12:57.340 --> 00:13:01.580 But, I want you to know that this is a relatively new knowledge base that we have here. 00:13:02.880 --> 00:13:08.860 All right. This graphic is from a really great website it's called marineheatwaves.org 00:13:09.500 --> 00:13:15.100 and I highly encourage you to check that website out if you're interested in marine heatwaves. 00:13:15.100 --> 00:13:19.920 It's started by scientists, Hobday is one of them, a lot of other folks 00:13:19.920 --> 00:13:23.460 and has a lot of resources and news for you. 00:13:23.460 --> 00:13:28.520 But, this graphic is really good because it shows you four different heat waves. 00:13:28.520 --> 00:13:36.720 You see the Mediterranean Sea, Western Australia r1 that Nick Bond called "the blob", 00:13:36.720 --> 00:13:40.120 northeast Pacific and the northwest Atlantic. 00:13:40.120 --> 00:13:43.920 And so it gives you some facts and figures about those. 00:13:43.920 --> 00:13:49.360 But you notice it says largest event on record at those locations. 00:13:49.360 --> 00:13:58.600 So these are definitely new phenomena in terms of the intensity that we're observing in those years. 00:13:59.040 --> 00:14:02.640 Now, the other thing that's really cool on this graphic is you see it says 00:14:02.640 --> 00:14:09.060 warm air can drive marine heat waves by warming the ocean surface. 00:14:09.060 --> 00:14:14.040 Climate modes like El Nino can cause marine heat waves to occur 00:14:14.040 --> 00:14:19.020 and then ocean currents can drive marine heat waves by moving around warm water. 00:14:19.020 --> 00:14:23.480 So that's what I want to get into next is 00:14:26.400 --> 00:14:30.360 is the mechanisms behind marine heatwaves. 00:14:30.360 --> 00:14:36.680 And so, I guess, Jackie? This is when we're going to have our next poll. 00:14:36.680 --> 00:14:38.680 And so if you could launch that 00:14:42.800 --> 00:14:43.920 - Okay, great. 00:14:44.440 --> 00:14:51.199 So we just launched our second poll and this one is how much detail do you want to understand? 00:14:51.199 --> 00:14:53.320 Go ahead and select one of the choices 00:14:53.320 --> 00:14:58.080 and for those of you having troubles accessing the poll, I apologize, 00:14:58.080 --> 00:15:02.640 you can go ahead and put your answers in the chat box, but if you can use that poll... 00:15:02.640 --> 00:15:05.300 Looks like we're getting quite a bit of response, already. 00:15:05.960 --> 00:15:09.440 Okay, going to get ready to close that poll five more seconds. 00:15:11.180 --> 00:15:15.220 four, three, two, okay i'm gonna close the poll. 00:15:15.960 --> 00:15:24.640 It looks like we have when I share the results, here, it was 13 percent are interested in 00:15:24.640 --> 00:15:28.100 they're more they're more interested in biological effects, 00:15:28.100 --> 00:15:35.320 25 percent are just the basics and 62 percent would really like to understand this part better. 00:15:35.920 --> 00:15:41.100 - Yay, that's what I wanted to share with you. But you don't want to bore people. 00:15:41.100 --> 00:15:44.080 Okay. That's excellent. Thanks, everyone. 00:15:45.120 --> 00:15:50.120 All right. So what I have on this slide is drivers. 00:15:50.120 --> 00:15:59.080 Drivers is a term scientists use to say what is really forcing a phenomenon. 00:15:59.080 --> 00:16:03.720 Okay, so drivers are the force behind the mechanism. 00:16:03.720 --> 00:16:09.480 And so they're the same three that we saw in that last graphic. 00:16:09.480 --> 00:16:12.700 Forcing a marine heatwave locally, 00:16:12.700 --> 00:16:16.880 through processes that affect the mixed layer temperature budget. 00:16:16.880 --> 00:16:21.220 We're going to talk about each one of these individually, so you'll see what this is all about. 00:16:21.860 --> 00:16:27.760 The second thing is that drivers that can modulate a marine heatwave 00:16:27.760 --> 00:16:34.040 from regional or remote sources, and, specifically, climate modes. 00:16:34.040 --> 00:16:36.560 And we'll talk about what climate modes are. 00:16:36.560 --> 00:16:38.500 And then the third thing is 00:16:38.500 --> 00:16:45.420 ^ act to modulate marine heat waves via atmospheric and or oceanic teleconnection processes. 00:16:45.420 --> 00:16:46.920 And i'll explain what each of these are. 00:16:46.920 --> 00:16:50.300 So let's jump in for the first one. Okay. 00:16:50.300 --> 00:16:55.660 So here what you see is a picture of oceanographic data. 00:16:55.660 --> 00:17:03.000 So the axis going down we call it the z-axis. Most people call it the y-axis 00:17:03.000 --> 00:17:06.180 because it usually goes up but it's going downward. That's depth 00:17:06.180 --> 00:17:09.600 and then temperature on the x-axis going across. 00:17:09.600 --> 00:17:14.480 And what you see, that black line shows you the temperature as you go deeper. 00:17:14.480 --> 00:17:19.060 And it's color-coded just to show where the warmest waters are. 00:17:19.060 --> 00:17:25.600 And you notice that that top layer, not only is it warmer than the rest of it, it's a straight line. 00:17:25.600 --> 00:17:29.780 When you look below that, it curves, that's the thermocline. 00:17:29.780 --> 00:17:34.780 Well this mixed layer is exactly what it says. It's a mixed layer. 00:17:34.780 --> 00:17:43.760 And so, it is where the winds and other processes in the in the upper ocean 00:17:43.760 --> 00:17:46.640 are causing the temperature to be the same. 00:17:47.380 --> 00:17:49.080 And that's because of mixing. 00:17:49.520 --> 00:17:58.300 So the mixed layer can either be shallow like you see there on the left, or it can be quite deep, on the right. 00:17:58.300 --> 00:18:04.680 And so if you think about a mixed layer that's shallow and you have some heat source, 00:18:04.680 --> 00:18:09.500 you are keeping all of that heat in a very narrow band. 00:18:09.500 --> 00:18:14.680 If you have a very deep next layer and you have the same amount of heat, 00:18:14.680 --> 00:18:21.039 it's going to be distributed. So your mean temperature over that mixed layer will be less 00:18:21.039 --> 00:18:27.120 Okay, so the mixed layer depth that turns out is really important in many of the rain heat waves 00:18:27.120 --> 00:18:29.040 we've been observing. All right. 00:18:29.040 --> 00:18:35.780 And it's just simply how narrow or thick is that layer in which the heat is going to accumulate. 00:18:36.400 --> 00:18:42.420 All right. Number two, okay. So, now, let's talk about climate modes. 00:18:42.420 --> 00:18:45.580 Most everybody knows about an El Nino, right? 00:18:45.580 --> 00:18:54.460 And we call it El Nino Southern Oscillation to distinguish that there's El Ninos and La Ninas. 00:18:54.460 --> 00:18:58.460 And most people have a good intuitive understanding of what that is. 00:18:58.460 --> 00:19:04.040 But, there's several climate modes and it's it's really like alphabet soup. 00:19:04.040 --> 00:19:09.520 You have the PDO you have the MJO you have a whole bunch of other acronyms 00:19:09.520 --> 00:19:12.220 that i'm not even going to bother to go into. 00:19:12.220 --> 00:19:14.300 I'm just showing a few of them, here. 00:19:14.300 --> 00:19:22.160 But the point is that scientists have taken the time to look at the variability that you see in the world oceans 00:19:22.160 --> 00:19:26.420 and notice that there are patterns, patterns that are repeatable. 00:19:26.420 --> 00:19:31.919 And sometimes these patterns can explain a lot of the variation. 00:19:31.919 --> 00:19:38.660 So, for instance, El Nino ENSO pattern, whether it's El Nino or La Nina 00:19:38.660 --> 00:19:41.800 or the positive or negative phase of the PDO, 00:19:41.800 --> 00:19:48.020 those tend to explain about somewhere between 20 and 30 percent of the variability. 00:19:48.020 --> 00:19:55.380 And so these repeatable patterns, many of them have um warming associated with it. 00:19:55.380 --> 00:19:58.880 We all know that El Nino is warmer than average waters 00:19:58.880 --> 00:20:04.880 and it's because of all of the interactions at the equator, and the tip of the thermocline, 00:20:04.880 --> 00:20:10.860 and how the warmth is pushed across the ocean basin, 00:20:10.860 --> 00:20:16.740 and then when that wind stress relaxes the warmth comes into an area that it isn't usually. 00:20:16.740 --> 00:20:18.960 So anyway, that's a climate mode. 00:20:18.960 --> 00:20:25.520 All right. Let's talk about the third one. This is even a little bit more esoteric for non-oceanographers 00:20:25.520 --> 00:20:31.600 but it's talking about these processes and this is actually, honestly my favorite is 00:20:31.600 --> 00:20:37.080 these processes that happen on a global or a base and ocean basin scale. 00:20:37.080 --> 00:20:41.200 So you all know about the jet stream, right? 00:20:41.200 --> 00:20:44.700 And so there's a little picture of it and it dances around the globe. 00:20:44.700 --> 00:20:49.980 And there are several jet streams. This is just showing the one in the north hemisphere. 00:20:50.840 --> 00:20:56.380 Well that jet stream meanders. It isn't always in the same location. 00:20:56.380 --> 00:21:01.920 And so the atmosphere flows and you can think of it as fluid flow. 00:21:01.920 --> 00:21:09.560 Well the ocean, of course, is fluid, as well, and there are things that meander through the ocean. 00:21:09.560 --> 00:21:15.680 We all know about ocean currents but there's also these things, things like kelvin waves, rossby waves. 00:21:15.680 --> 00:21:21.420 And they can flow through the entire Pacific Basin. 00:21:21.420 --> 00:21:28.540 And when these things happen, alterations in the jet stream, kelvin wave transport, 00:21:29.440 --> 00:21:33.920 it is connected and that's this last term, here, teleconnection. 00:21:33.920 --> 00:21:40.760 So teleconnection means that something that was forced, driven in one part of the ocean 00:21:40.760 --> 00:21:46.440 or one part of the planet, has effects in another part of the planet. Okay. 00:21:46.440 --> 00:21:48.940 So there's that communication. 00:21:48.940 --> 00:21:52.880 All right, so hopefully that made some sense to you. 00:21:52.880 --> 00:21:58.320 So all three of these drivers can cause a marine heat wave 00:21:58.320 --> 00:22:03.860 and so scientists have taken a lot of time and effort to really, every time there is a marine heat wave, 00:22:03.860 --> 00:22:09.440 why did it start what caused it, what were the mechanisms, what were the drivers that were involved. 00:22:09.440 --> 00:22:17.060 And that's how we learn. And then when there's changes in those mechanisms, 00:22:17.060 --> 00:22:20.540 that's how we learn what might be changing in our planet. 00:22:21.700 --> 00:22:28.180 But it's complex. And so here is another slide this is from Holbrook et al. 00:22:28.180 --> 00:22:35.620 and what you see is time on the y-axis in space on the x-axis. 00:22:35.620 --> 00:22:39.280 Ocean archers love to make these plots, time versus space. 00:22:39.280 --> 00:22:43.460 Most people don't think about putting time versus space, but it's really useful. 00:22:43.460 --> 00:22:48.500 So you can see that short-lived things are down towards the bottom 00:22:48.500 --> 00:22:53.060 and large things are over towards the-- is that right side. 00:22:53.060 --> 00:22:59.840 And so you see all these phenomenon that we've been talking about, whether it's air sea heat fluxes 00:22:59.840 --> 00:23:06.400 or kelvin waves or inner annual climate modes, like ENSO or IOD. 00:23:07.040 --> 00:23:10.380 And then you see that dotted line around marine heat waves 00:23:10.380 --> 00:23:15.800 and so you see that rain heat waves are operating across many of these scales 00:23:15.800 --> 00:23:20.060 and many of these processes that are involved in marine heat waves. 00:23:20.060 --> 00:23:25.340 So if you didn't have an intuitive understanding for what's causing marine heatwave, 00:23:25.340 --> 00:23:29.680 it's because it's a very complicated answer. 00:23:29.680 --> 00:23:34.680 But we can parse it out into those three kinds of drivers. 00:23:35.120 --> 00:23:39.820 So let's go forward and let's start looking at some data. 00:23:39.820 --> 00:23:42.900 And in order to do this, we need to define a few terms. 00:23:42.900 --> 00:23:46.940 One is climatology and one is anomaly. 00:23:46.940 --> 00:23:55.220 So climatology is easy that's just the long term norm average, whatever is long term normal. 00:23:55.220 --> 00:23:59.980 Now anomaly is an excursion from that, okay? 00:23:59.980 --> 00:24:08.460 And we calculate it, let's say, Claire said it was a 90-degree day down there in Santa Barbara. 00:24:08.460 --> 00:24:15.760 She could take the average temperature from that and subtract that from the observation 00:24:15.760 --> 00:24:18.220 and it's probably going to be a positive number. 00:24:18.220 --> 00:24:28.420 And oops and so that would be like this warm anomaly that you see here on the right hand side. 00:24:28.420 --> 00:24:31.600 A cold anomaly is just the converse. 00:24:31.600 --> 00:24:39.680 Okay so, we're now going to look at some data and it's color coded in this way. 00:24:39.680 --> 00:24:43.060 So now what you're seeing are the ocean basins of the world 00:24:43.060 --> 00:24:47.760 and you're looking at the water temperature anomaly. 00:24:47.760 --> 00:24:51.300 Okay, you're not looking at temperature you're looking at the anomaly. 00:24:51.300 --> 00:24:57.120 And it's color coded: red means warmer than normal, blue means colder than normal. 00:24:57.120 --> 00:25:03.940 Okay so that doesn't mean that one place on here, if it's a brighter red,, is warmer 00:25:03.940 --> 00:25:06.159 than a place that it's a brighter blue 00:25:06.159 --> 00:25:11.480 it just means that it's warmer than average in that place where it's bright red. 00:25:11.480 --> 00:25:14.380 Okay, so it takes a little bit of getting used to. 00:25:14.380 --> 00:25:20.580 But, this really helps us to visualize what's different from long-term average 00:25:20.580 --> 00:25:22.600 when we look at plots like this. 00:25:23.120 --> 00:25:28.460 All right, so I want to give a shout out to where can you look at data like that. 00:25:28.460 --> 00:25:34.000 As Claire mentioned i'm the director of NANOOS, which is part of the U.S. IOOS system. 00:25:34.000 --> 00:25:43.840 I'm going to be showing you a lot of data from our data portal that has an actual climatology app on it. 00:25:43.840 --> 00:25:47.000 Now this talk is really focused on the Pacific Northwest. 00:25:47.000 --> 00:25:49.560 And, of course, that's where I live and do my work. 00:25:49.560 --> 00:25:56.820 But I want you to know that no matter where you are, there is, if you're in the United States, 00:25:56.820 --> 00:26:02.159 there is a regional coastal ocean observing system near you. 00:26:02.160 --> 00:26:08.040 And so here's a little map that shows all of the different regional ocean observing systems. 00:26:08.200 --> 00:26:12.500 So you can see where NANOOS is we've got sun coos and skus in California. 00:26:12.500 --> 00:26:15.000 and all of those others that you see distributed. 00:26:15.000 --> 00:26:18.840 So now, I'd like to know who where are you guys coming from? 00:26:18.840 --> 00:26:21.440 So Jacqueline could you launch the third poll? 00:26:23.840 --> 00:26:27.400 - [Jacqueline] Okay. I just launched the poll 00:26:28.240 --> 00:26:36.040 So you guys know the drill. Go ahead and click on which of the us regions that you live in. 00:26:38.800 --> 00:26:44.400 people are answering we've got almost a good percentage in. 00:26:44.400 --> 00:26:49.480 So i'm going to give another second and closing the poll. 00:26:51.520 --> 00:26:55.300 So from those who responded, I'm gonna go ahead and share it. 00:26:55.300 --> 00:27:01.760 We have 73 percent on the West Coast, nine percent on the East Coast and 15 were other. 00:27:03.060 --> 00:27:04.840 - All right. - Go ahead and hide that. 00:27:04.840 --> 00:27:09.660 Thank you so much and particularly thank you to the East Coast participants. 00:27:09.660 --> 00:27:14.720 You know, after six o'clock. So i'm really honored that you're that you're joining this. 00:27:15.220 --> 00:27:16.560 All right. So, 00:27:17.400 --> 00:27:23.800 if you go to the NANOOS website and here's our website address www.nanoos.org, 00:27:23.800 --> 00:27:30.700 but if you want to look for where you are, if you're in California, the East Coast or other places, 00:27:30.700 --> 00:27:38.820 find your regional association and people have a lot of good apps 00:27:38.820 --> 00:27:41.440 and other ways for you to look at data. 00:27:41.960 --> 00:27:43.920 Here's what you'll see if you come to NANOOS. 00:27:43.920 --> 00:27:50.380 And so we have these little slides that come and go and one of them says how different are conditions. 00:27:50.380 --> 00:27:55.960 And so if you click the button on the right, it takes you to that climatology app 00:27:56.720 --> 00:28:00.260 that I told you about, where that map that I showed you came from. 00:28:00.260 --> 00:28:05.280 And if you click the button on the left, it tells you how to use our application. 00:28:05.280 --> 00:28:08.060 And so spend some time with that. 00:28:08.060 --> 00:28:13.020 We try to make these so that's intuitively obvious how to use the app and look at the data, 00:28:13.020 --> 00:28:17.200 but there's a lot of tips that you might learn from looking at that how-to. 00:28:17.860 --> 00:28:24.680 All right, so here's a map of this climatology app that we looked at before. 00:28:24.680 --> 00:28:29.560 Now this is from January of 2014, okay. 00:28:29.560 --> 00:28:36.640 And what you see is this red, dark red bullseye telling us that we have a strong temperature anomaly. 00:28:36.640 --> 00:28:41.520 This is in Celsius degrees Celsius. So if you're used to Fahrenheit, 00:28:41.520 --> 00:28:44.500 there's actually a setting you can adjust to . 00:28:44.500 --> 00:28:50.160 But you can kind of double it and you wouldn't be too far off. 00:28:50.540 --> 00:28:56.960 So what we saw is this bull's eye and that's what led Nick Bond the Washington State climatologist 00:28:56.960 --> 00:29:01.600 and a University of Washington scientists to say 00:29:01.600 --> 00:29:07.440 well there's just this blob of anomalously warm water in the northeast Pacific 00:29:07.440 --> 00:29:09.580 that doesn't really go away. 00:29:09.580 --> 00:29:12.360 All right, and that is the genesis of that name. 00:29:12.360 --> 00:29:18.440 And then he and several colleagues studied it and looked at the mechanisms 00:29:18.440 --> 00:29:21.500 of what was what's driving that, all right. 00:29:21.500 --> 00:29:28.800 So, the interesting thing about the blob is that it was everybody's like what's causing the warming ? 00:29:28.800 --> 00:29:35.020 what's causing the warming? It really wasn't so much of a warming, as it was a lack of cooling. 00:29:35.020 --> 00:29:37.280 Okay, how did that happen? 00:29:37.280 --> 00:29:44.180 Well there was this high pressure ridge over the Gulf of Alaska that started in the winter of 2013 00:29:44.180 --> 00:29:46.760 and persisted well into 2014. 00:29:46.760 --> 00:29:51.600 It was so persistent that the scientists, I mean, come on, we don't have that great of senses of humor, 00:29:51.600 --> 00:29:56.280 they called it a ridiculously resistant ridge or triple R. 00:29:56.280 --> 00:29:59.940 And you know that's science humor, but anyway, I digress. 00:29:59.940 --> 00:30:05.180 So this high pressure just stayed and squatted over there 00:30:05.180 --> 00:30:11.580 and there was a weak Aleutian because of the strength of the high pressure. 00:30:11.580 --> 00:30:18.940 And what happened is that there were really weak winds and less storms, fewer storms 00:30:18.940 --> 00:30:23.280 in the Gulf of Alaska and that reduced the cooling. 00:30:23.280 --> 00:30:28.360 Normally, you have a lot of wind stress and so that's going to cool the water, 00:30:28.360 --> 00:30:35.980 but also that water is going to mix the reduce-- 00:30:35.980 --> 00:30:40.020 so that there's reduced cooling from mixing. 00:30:40.020 --> 00:30:46.400 So normally, the winds are going to mix it up well if you don't have the winds the water just sits there. 00:30:46.400 --> 00:30:54.040 And so, you don't have that cool water coming from down deep that cools off that top layer. 00:30:54.040 --> 00:31:02.780 Okay, so you really have this this local weather pattern that that set up this lack of cooling 00:31:02.780 --> 00:31:06.020 because you didn't have that mixing of the cooler waters 00:31:06.020 --> 00:31:09.220 from underneath to come up and cool down that top layer. 00:31:10.480 --> 00:31:15.760 All right, so that's the view we had in early 2014. 00:31:15.760 --> 00:31:23.020 So we knew we had this blob, we understood the mechanisms, but what we didn't know in 2014 00:31:23.020 --> 00:31:28.900 is that an El Nino would come and accentuate and prolong the conditions. 00:31:29.700 --> 00:31:37.340 Also that the blob and its effects would go deep and persist well longer than what we thought. 00:31:38.180 --> 00:31:42.040 And we didn't know how the blob would enter or affect the coastal waters 00:31:42.040 --> 00:31:44.220 and what dynamics would be set up there. 00:31:44.660 --> 00:31:47.860 Of course, we didn't know how the biology would respond. 00:31:48.660 --> 00:31:53.220 And what we really didn't know, and this shocked a lot of us, 00:31:53.220 --> 00:31:58.820 is that in less than five years we would see another marine heat wave in the same area. 00:31:59.600 --> 00:32:06.640 Okay so let's talk about these. So here is the view from September 2015. 00:32:06.640 --> 00:32:10.360 So okay, this is almost two years later. 00:32:11.460 --> 00:32:18.300 So what you see is a lot more dark red. You still see that bullseye pattern there in the northeast Pacific, 00:32:18.300 --> 00:32:23.540 but you also see that equatorial red, that's the El Nino signal. 00:32:23.540 --> 00:32:27.800 You see this sort of diagonal thing that's coming up and hitting California, 00:32:27.800 --> 00:32:31.000 that's also involved in the El Nino dynamics. 00:32:31.000 --> 00:32:34.180 and so people were calling this the three-headed monster. 00:32:34.180 --> 00:32:39.960 Anyway, so we had the northeast Pacific marine heat wave, we had an El Nino 00:32:39.960 --> 00:32:46.560 and so we just have a lot of warmer than normal waters in our region. 00:32:47.920 --> 00:32:54.799 Okay, but this is, now, some interesting data and before I share it with you, 00:32:54.800 --> 00:32:58.880 Jackie, could you launch the next poll? 00:33:03.280 --> 00:33:08.080 - [Jacqueline] Okay, so I just launched the next poll. 00:33:09.220 --> 00:33:13.420 And this is how do we observe such things as a marine heat wave? 00:33:15.220 --> 00:33:19.700 Go ahead and take a moment to answer that. Looks like we're getting answers coming in. 00:33:34.180 --> 00:33:35.380 - [Claire] Yeah, I was just going to make mention, 00:33:35.380 --> 00:33:39.480 we are getting a lot of people letting us know they're having issues with the polls. 00:33:39.480 --> 00:33:42.440 So we're sorry about that. It's kind of out of our control. 00:33:42.440 --> 00:33:48.780 but you can always type in your response to the question box, if you'd like to register your vote. 00:33:49.660 --> 00:33:50.160 Thanks. 00:33:53.720 --> 00:33:58.640 - Great. so it looks like we have a good majority maybe another second here, we're gonna close the poll. 00:34:01.200 --> 00:34:04.440 Okay, I'm closing the poll and i'm about to share it. 00:34:07.280 --> 00:34:08.800 And here are the results. 00:34:08.800 --> 00:34:15.760 It looks like 60 percent want to know more about how these observations are done, 00:34:15.760 --> 00:34:20.820 22 want to know more about other aspects than understanding the methods, 00:34:20.820 --> 00:34:26.940 and 17 percent want to let them know where they can find out more about these methods. 00:34:27.720 --> 00:34:29.180 - Great, thank you so much. 00:34:29.180 --> 00:34:31.760 And I just really want to say as an oceanographer, 00:34:31.760 --> 00:34:38.320 it makes me feel so happy that everyone is so interested in in understanding the mechanisms of these 00:34:38.320 --> 00:34:42.240 oceanographic phenomena, and also how we study them. 00:34:42.240 --> 00:34:48.300 So this slide is showing you data. Everything we've been talking about before 00:34:48.300 --> 00:34:53.380 has really been just surface data and that data came to you from satellites. 00:34:53.380 --> 00:34:55.280 I'm going to go back one. 00:34:55.280 --> 00:35:00.600 So these data came from satellites that look at the surface of the Earth 00:35:00.600 --> 00:35:03.100 and look at the temperature. 00:35:03.100 --> 00:35:07.380 And then scientists calculate a long-term climatology 00:35:07.380 --> 00:35:14.900 and then every month from NANOOS, the climatology app, you can look at this anomaly. 00:35:15.360 --> 00:35:18.000 But there's a lot of other ways that we study the ocean. 00:35:18.000 --> 00:35:23.380 And one is something that helps us look down into the waters with depth. 00:35:23.380 --> 00:35:31.320 And that is a glider. This is a glider, a sea glider, that both NANOOS and senkus, our neighbor to the south, 00:35:31.320 --> 00:35:34.000 have funded off the Trinidad head. 00:35:34.000 --> 00:35:38.080 And so this glider is an autonomous vehicle. 00:35:38.080 --> 00:35:42.980 It's like a torpedo looking thing. It's about six feet long, 00:35:42.980 --> 00:35:45.540 which is kind of funny, now in the time of COVID, 00:35:45.540 --> 00:35:50.300 I saw two scientists, on either side of the glider, showing that they were social distancing. 00:35:51.460 --> 00:35:54.460 But anyway, so this glider undulates through the water 00:35:54.460 --> 00:35:59.000 and then at a certain time it comes to the surface and relays its data. 00:35:59.000 --> 00:36:02.940 And so this is so important because, with these gliders, 00:36:02.940 --> 00:36:05.940 we can see what's going on in the depth of the ocean. 00:36:05.940 --> 00:36:11.920 Jack Barth is the principal oceanographer or the principal investigator for this. 00:36:11.920 --> 00:36:14.780 He's at Oregon State University 00:36:14.780 --> 00:36:18.820 and what you see here is the temperature anomaly. 00:36:18.820 --> 00:36:23.260 Now, he's using purple to indicate positive temperature anomalies. 00:36:23.260 --> 00:36:29.060 And what you're seeing is that anomaly over the depth, but versus time. 00:36:29.060 --> 00:36:32.860 And so we're starting in 2015 so well into the 00:36:32.860 --> 00:36:38.400 into the northeast Pacific marine heat wave and the El Nino. 00:36:38.400 --> 00:36:43.940 And you see it's very much constrained in the top part of the of the water column. 00:36:43.940 --> 00:36:49.240 So in, you know, above 100 meters looks like it might be around 70 meters or so. 00:36:49.240 --> 00:36:56.560 And then, as you go down into 2016, you see that that anomaly sinks down with depth 00:36:56.560 --> 00:36:59.840 and it goes as deep as 400 meters. 00:36:59.840 --> 00:37:05.540 You have waters that are half a degree warmer than what they typically are. 00:37:05.540 --> 00:37:10.820 So anyways, as you go through time you can see that this deep signal persisted 00:37:10.820 --> 00:37:15.320 and it persisted, it was there in times when it wasn't showing in the surface. 00:37:15.320 --> 00:37:19.560 You can see it's white up at the surface but that heat was lingering at depth. 00:37:19.560 --> 00:37:23.960 So that was a really important discovery. 00:37:23.960 --> 00:37:31.660 Here is another picture of that. This one is produced with something called an argo float 00:37:31.660 --> 00:37:38.380 and unlike a glider, that actually covers distance with time going up and down, 00:37:38.380 --> 00:37:41.800 these argo floats are passive and they sink 00:37:41.800 --> 00:37:47.340 and they they're just kind of like little yo-yos that go up and down over the water column with time. 00:37:47.340 --> 00:37:49.160 And they relay their data. 00:37:49.160 --> 00:37:54.760 So both gliders and argo floats are so critical to us for understanding the deep ocean 00:37:54.760 --> 00:37:59.040 because the surface is is only a tiny fraction of the ocean. 00:37:59.580 --> 00:38:04.260 All right, so now, looking at this slide that was prepared by Toby Garfield, 00:38:04.260 --> 00:38:06.900 NOAA Southwest Fisheries Science Center, 00:38:06.900 --> 00:38:12.080 this is also water temperature anomaly. 00:38:12.080 --> 00:38:15.000 It says water temperature depth, but it really is the anomaly. 00:38:15.000 --> 00:38:21.140 And you can see there that zero is about at where it changes from yellow to green 00:38:21.140 --> 00:38:24.360 and then the red colors are the warmer. 00:38:24.800 --> 00:38:30.220 And so if you start at about 2014, you can see that marine heat wave, 00:38:30.220 --> 00:38:33.840 but you see that it goes down with depth. 00:38:34.360 --> 00:38:39.520 Then you don't see anything in the surface. It returns to green. 00:38:39.520 --> 00:38:42.440 But you still see that heat at depth. 00:38:42.880 --> 00:38:49.420 And then at the very end of the record, 2019, you see where that top blue arrow is, 00:38:49.420 --> 00:38:53.800 and you see some intense red there and actually getting to the pink colors 00:38:53.800 --> 00:38:56.500 which is which is a much higher anomaly. 00:38:56.500 --> 00:39:02.700 That is the new marine heat wave that I said we we saw in less than five years 00:39:02.700 --> 00:39:06.320 from the first one in the northeast Pacific. 00:39:07.340 --> 00:39:12.820 Okay, and you can see that in this glider plot, as well, where that arrow is. 00:39:12.820 --> 00:39:15.180 That is the 2019 marine heat wave. 00:39:15.180 --> 00:39:22.380 What you see is it's very narrow and it's shallow. Compare that to the right side of the graph 00:39:22.380 --> 00:39:24.840 to the left side of the graph. It's much deeper. 00:39:24.840 --> 00:39:32.040 Well, here is a comparison, again from Toby Garfield, this beautiful satellite representation 00:39:32.040 --> 00:39:39.180 of the so-called blob and then what was the current marine heat wave in 2019. 00:39:39.180 --> 00:39:43.740 And you see that there's lots of similarities but there's also some differences. 00:39:43.740 --> 00:39:47.880 And I'm running low on time, so i'm going to skip to this next slide 00:39:47.880 --> 00:39:54.780 that tells us the real difference between the first marine heat wave and the second one. 00:39:54.780 --> 00:40:00.500 In the northeast Pacific was the first one developed in winter, the second one developed in summer. 00:40:00.500 --> 00:40:08.440 They had a lot of similarities. They both had weak pressure cells. 00:40:08.440 --> 00:40:13.700 In one case it was the Aleutian Low in the other case it was the North Pacific High 00:40:13.700 --> 00:40:19.820 and that reduced surface winds, you have less cooling and mixing, 00:40:19.820 --> 00:40:25.220 and there's a little different dynamics because one being in winter and the other being in the summer. 00:40:25.220 --> 00:40:33.640 But in the 2019, you had um the advantage of the summer clouds burned off 00:40:33.640 --> 00:40:38.820 because it was warmer. And so as you had less less clouds, you had more heating, 00:40:38.820 --> 00:40:41.920 if you had more heating you had fewer clouds and it was a positive feedback. 00:40:41.920 --> 00:40:49.360 So there's differences and i direct you to Dillon Amaya's research on this, comparing these two. 00:40:49.360 --> 00:40:52.020 So similarities but differences. 00:40:52.640 --> 00:40:57.400 Okay, and here, now we're back to the climatology app of NANOOS, 00:40:57.400 --> 00:41:01.880 and now instead of looking at satellite data, we're looking at buoy data. 00:41:01.880 --> 00:41:05.680 And so you're looking at it over the calendar year 00:41:05.680 --> 00:41:12.480 and the the y-axis is temperature and not temperature anomaly, just temperature. 00:41:12.480 --> 00:41:16.400 and that dark black line is the seasonal cycle. 00:41:16.400 --> 00:41:21.620 So that climatological mean and then the different blues and greens are different years 00:41:21.620 --> 00:41:31.180 and the selective year, in 2015 on the left, in 2019 on the right, is the year that we selected. 00:41:31.180 --> 00:41:37.280 And the arrow really shows you that we-- oh, and there's plus or minus standard deviations. 00:41:37.280 --> 00:41:41.820 And so, plus or minus one and then plus two, in pink. 00:41:41.820 --> 00:41:44.440 And you can see that where that red arrow is, 00:41:44.440 --> 00:41:52.320 the data was coming to and even crossing two standard deviations away from from typical. 00:41:52.320 --> 00:41:57.860 And you can see that that started in February and kind of went till May 00:41:57.860 --> 00:42:01.400 and then it was on the order of a degree and a half to two. 00:42:01.400 --> 00:42:04.740 And that it had that footprint of around three months. 00:42:04.740 --> 00:42:11.120 Then if you go over the 2019 event, you see that that was really during the summer. 00:42:11.120 --> 00:42:19.119 And during about July to October, it was a little more intense. It was more like two to three degrees. 00:42:19.119 --> 00:42:24.340 But again, once it went up, it stayed up, and it stayed up for quite some time. 00:42:24.340 --> 00:42:26.560 and we'll come back to that in just a bit. 00:42:26.880 --> 00:42:27.640 Okay. 00:42:29.460 --> 00:42:29.960 So. 00:42:30.800 --> 00:42:34.620 How will things change? Okay, Jackie, one more poll to do. 00:42:41.600 --> 00:42:42.860 Can we do the poll? 00:42:43.860 --> 00:42:46.460 - [Jacqueline] Okay, it just got launched. 00:42:47.680 --> 00:42:56.060 So the question is: Do you think marine heatwaves are related to climate change? 00:42:56.560 --> 00:43:02.160 Go ahead and you can either, you can use a quick poll. If you're not able to use that function, 00:43:02.160 --> 00:43:05.960 I've heard where you can minimize your screen and should be able to vote that way. 00:43:05.960 --> 00:43:09.360 And if that doesn't work go ahead and use the question or chat box. 00:43:10.180 --> 00:43:13.220 It looks like we've got people starting to answer. 00:43:14.500 --> 00:43:17.980 And have another minute-- another second rather. Getting ready to close. 00:43:19.400 --> 00:43:22.040 Okay, closing it down... 00:43:22.880 --> 00:43:25.160 and sharing the results here. 00:43:26.460 --> 00:43:32.040 It looks like 24 percent don't know, 00:43:32.940 --> 00:43:38.960 and 14 percent we need precise understanding of the mechanism before stating so, 00:43:38.960 --> 00:43:43.000 and 62 say real scientific work is starting to make a connection. 00:43:43.880 --> 00:43:46.100 Great, thank you so much, Jacqueline. 00:43:46.100 --> 00:43:52.520 Well, the fun thing about constructing this poll is those are sentences that I have either said or thought 00:43:52.520 --> 00:43:54.720 at different points in time. 00:43:54.720 --> 00:43:59.820 You know, it struck me like, well I don't know, but it just seems like it has to be. But as a scientist, 00:43:59.820 --> 00:44:04.120 we really need to understand the mechanism before we make those proclamations. 00:44:04.120 --> 00:44:08.600 And yes, we are finding recent scientific work 00:44:08.600 --> 00:44:11.720 that is giving us insight to the answer to this question. 00:44:11.720 --> 00:44:12.980 And I'll present that to you. 00:44:12.980 --> 00:44:19.000 So from the intergovernmental panel on climate change, we have some startling news 00:44:19.000 --> 00:44:23.460 about the ocean's warming at an unprecedented rate. 00:44:23.460 --> 00:44:32.080 And their assessment that this will continue at present conditions well into the 21st century 00:44:32.080 --> 00:44:34.620 and projected to be even higher. 00:44:35.740 --> 00:44:43.040 So we know about this and we know about the, you know, accord to try to halt the CO2 emissions, 00:44:43.040 --> 00:44:45.420 in order to curb some of this warming. 00:44:46.600 --> 00:44:52.120 If you increase the heat, you're increasing the amount of heat in the system, 00:44:52.120 --> 00:44:57.060 so the risk that you're going to have these extreme events is going to increase. 00:44:57.060 --> 00:44:59.920 So that's an easy answer to this. 00:44:59.920 --> 00:45:01.580 But what about the mechanisms? 00:45:01.580 --> 00:45:08.180 And the one that I want to share with you is one that Dillon Amaya has published 00:45:08.180 --> 00:45:13.760 and is about to publish on, recently, in the north Pacific and it has to do with that next layer down. 00:45:13.760 --> 00:45:19.080 Okay so, here is a picture from his paper and there's the reference, there. 00:45:19.080 --> 00:45:24.540 The purple data is the mix layered down. The green data is the wind speed cubed. 00:45:24.540 --> 00:45:27.000 Okay, we're not going to worry about the details, 00:45:27.000 --> 00:45:30.960 but it looks like the green line really doesn't have a slope, 00:45:30.960 --> 00:45:34.960 but the mixed layer depth looks like it is getting shallower 00:45:34.960 --> 00:45:41.040 at the start of the-- you can fit a line through that. At the start of the record, things were higher above 00:45:41.040 --> 00:45:47.840 you know, right around 25 and now they're they're certainly the low dip in 2019, 00:45:47.840 --> 00:45:51.760 which was associated with that marine heat wave, but the general trend is going down. 00:45:51.760 --> 00:45:55.180 And so, we talked early on about drivers of marine heat waves 00:45:55.180 --> 00:46:02.860 and so that mixed layer getting shallower just means that we're going to contain the heat in a narrower band. 00:46:02.860 --> 00:46:07.260 So the likelihood of these marine heat waves is going to increase. 00:46:07.260 --> 00:46:10.880 So there we go. All right. So now, 00:46:10.880 --> 00:46:15.980 if that wasn't sobering enough here's modeling work from Oliver et al. 00:46:15.980 --> 00:46:21.900 And so they've taken computer models to model and replicate the data 00:46:21.900 --> 00:46:24.440 and then step it out into the future. 00:46:24.440 --> 00:46:29.120 And this is from their paper and it says based on these projections, 00:46:29.120 --> 00:46:31.420 we expect impacts on marine ecosystems 00:46:31.420 --> 00:46:35.840 to be widespread, significant and persistent, through the 21st century. 00:46:36.960 --> 00:46:45.900 So, bad news. The good news is if you compare the pink and the orange projection, 00:46:45.900 --> 00:46:53.060 one is at greenhouse emissions. It's called RCP 8.5 00:46:53.060 --> 00:46:55.620 and that's kind of like business as usual. 00:46:55.620 --> 00:46:59.160 The orange one is if we curb CO2 emissions. 00:46:59.160 --> 00:47:03.480 And so that's telling us that the intensity of these marine heat waves, 00:47:03.480 --> 00:47:10.480 as well as the total number of days, would be less. So we can make a difference. 00:47:10.480 --> 00:47:13.380 We're on a road that's going to be warmer, but we can make the difference. 00:47:14.560 --> 00:47:16.920 All right. So, what are the effects? 00:47:17.740 --> 00:47:23.100 They're gargantuan! And for more information, this paper by Smale et al. is a really good one, 00:47:23.100 --> 00:47:29.300 but big things, like altering the ecosystem structure, altering habitat ranges, 00:47:29.300 --> 00:47:31.580 where where organisms go. 00:47:31.580 --> 00:47:35.900 And so then they're interacting with other ones that they didn't use to interact with. 00:47:35.900 --> 00:47:42.960 So you alter the ecosystem structure, you affect the biodiversity, and you can cause economic losses 00:47:42.960 --> 00:47:49.760 because people depend on finding the organisms they want to harvest in a dependable place. 00:47:49.760 --> 00:47:53.760 And so the other thing that's really important is 00:47:53.760 --> 00:47:59.560 when you have gradual change, many times biological species can adapt to that. 00:47:59.560 --> 00:48:05.100 But when you have these abrupt things where the heat is changing very quickly, it's harder to adapt. 00:48:05.880 --> 00:48:10.380 And so here's a slide from Steph Moore at NOAA Northwest Fisheries Science Center 00:48:10.380 --> 00:48:13.980 and it's just a compilation of some of the biological effects. 00:48:13.980 --> 00:48:19.240 But as I said, they're large and they're pervasive and they're worldwide scale. 00:48:19.840 --> 00:48:27.820 This is an infographic that NOAA Fisheries made about the blob marine heat wave 00:48:27.820 --> 00:48:30.320 and some of the major impacts. 00:48:30.320 --> 00:48:37.160 We have the largest harmful algal bloom on the West Coast, from Alaska to Baja, 00:48:37.160 --> 00:48:41.780 which shut down crabbing and planning. Severe economic losses. 00:48:41.780 --> 00:48:47.000 We had marine mammal impacts and massive sea bird die-offs. 00:48:47.000 --> 00:48:52.660 And there are some of these papers on the bottom that refer to this. 00:48:52.660 --> 00:48:58.580 And so I'm gonna go quickly over this because we don't have time. 00:48:58.580 --> 00:49:04.180 But also, I think it's just there's a lot of biological and people 00:49:04.180 --> 00:49:08.079 when you change something so fundamental as the temperature. 00:49:08.079 --> 00:49:10.640 Here's other changes and there were just like weird things, 00:49:10.640 --> 00:49:16.100 like these pyrosomes, which are pelagic tunicates, that just we didn't used to see them 00:49:16.100 --> 00:49:19.840 And suddenly they're everywhere to the point that they're clogging fishing nets. 00:49:19.840 --> 00:49:25.980 So a lot of different effects and a lot of different references there for you. 00:49:26.880 --> 00:49:33.520 But what I want to do now, the last thing I want to cover, is how this marine heat wave affected 00:49:33.520 --> 00:49:35.640 you know, our quote-unquote backyard. 00:49:35.640 --> 00:49:39.040 We've been talking about the oceanic signal by and large. 00:49:39.040 --> 00:49:44.120 So I'm going to kind of cut up our backyard into these boxes. 00:49:44.120 --> 00:49:47.460 So we've been talking about the open ocean, the coastal ocean, 00:49:47.460 --> 00:49:51.100 the data I showed you from that buoy is from the coastal ocean, 00:49:51.100 --> 00:49:55.880 and I also want to talk about the shelf, the near shore and the inland waters. 00:49:56.620 --> 00:49:57.900 Okay, so. 00:49:58.960 --> 00:50:03.820 If the marine heat wave is coming to the coast in the near shore, what could be involved? 00:50:03.820 --> 00:50:06.940 Well the interesting thing about the coastal shelf and near shore 00:50:06.940 --> 00:50:10.840 is that you have this process called upwelling, in the summertime, 00:50:10.840 --> 00:50:16.020 and the influence of the wind can really amplify the conditions you see. 00:50:16.640 --> 00:50:24.400 Also in inland seas, there's bathymetric features when fjords are are cut. They're called sills. 00:50:24.400 --> 00:50:29.760 And that can retain the circulation and retain the heat signal. 00:50:29.760 --> 00:50:33.640 And, in fact, I'll show you quick examples of how this played out. 00:50:34.160 --> 00:50:36.080 All right. So let's go to the shelf. 00:50:36.500 --> 00:50:42.700 And so here's this coastal upwelling, equator-ward winds pushes the water offshore 00:50:42.700 --> 00:50:45.320 and cold water comes up to replace it. 00:50:45.320 --> 00:50:51.820 And when it shifts to downwelling, the wind changes direction goes forward 00:50:51.820 --> 00:50:56.260 and the water goes onshore. It's surface water, so it would be warmer. 00:50:56.260 --> 00:50:58.500 And so you tend to see warmer waters . 00:50:58.500 --> 00:51:04.880 And what was really fundamental about the first marine heat wave in the northeast Pacific 00:51:04.880 --> 00:51:12.180 is this plot, here, that shows that the warmer than average water was held away from the coast 00:51:12.180 --> 00:51:17.300 and actually, at the coast, you had either normal or cooler than average water. 00:51:17.300 --> 00:51:23.120 So coastal upwelling kept the blob at bay. This is from August of 2014. 00:51:23.120 --> 00:51:27.340 Remember it started 2013-2014 time frame. 00:51:27.340 --> 00:51:30.820 And so we weren't really seeing effects along the coastline. 00:51:30.820 --> 00:51:34.120 So it kept it at bay, until it didn't. 00:51:34.120 --> 00:51:37.800 And that's that transition from upwelling to downwelling. 00:51:37.800 --> 00:51:42.060 Then, suddenly, the heat anomaly was really strong. This is in October, 00:51:42.060 --> 00:51:44.900 after what's known as the fall transition. 00:51:45.520 --> 00:51:52.420 So that was interesting. And then to see how quickly the temperature changed, 00:51:52.420 --> 00:51:57.340 this is a buoy in the Olympic Coast National Marine Sanctuary known as Cheba. 00:51:57.340 --> 00:52:03.780 And this shift from upwelling to downwelling occurred right around the end of September. 00:52:03.780 --> 00:52:05.580 This is the temperature data. 00:52:05.580 --> 00:52:09.860 You're not looking at anomalies, here. You're actually looking at temperature with depth. 00:52:10.080 --> 00:52:13.980 And look at how abruptly that temperature changed 00:52:13.980 --> 00:52:17.660 when those winds shifted from upwelling to downwelling. 00:52:17.660 --> 00:52:23.520 And so you're you're going from about 12 degrees to like about 16 or 17 degrees. 00:52:23.520 --> 00:52:26.280 So as an organism, think of how that must have felt. 00:52:26.280 --> 00:52:30.040 I mean, to me, it would have felt good. Anyways. 00:52:30.600 --> 00:52:33.240 So that's what happened in 2014. 00:52:33.920 --> 00:52:42.700 2015 the blob, the El Nino, was with us, but that same phenomenon did not happen. 00:52:42.700 --> 00:52:49.860 There's the August data for 2015, and you don't see the cooler than average waters up at the coast. 00:52:49.860 --> 00:52:55.740 It's warmer than average. And as you remember the blob went to depth. 00:52:55.740 --> 00:53:01.040 And so that upwelled water was already warm, warmer than average. 00:53:01.040 --> 00:53:03.440 And so here's just to show you, really quick, 00:53:03.440 --> 00:53:08.840 that it's not that we didn't have upwelling in the summer of 2015, because we did, 00:53:08.840 --> 00:53:13.520 but the stars tell us that that upload water was warmer than average. 00:53:13.520 --> 00:53:18.120 So all sorts of things can be affected when we have one of these events 00:53:18.120 --> 00:53:20.080 and they're not always so predictable. 00:53:21.120 --> 00:53:28.680 All right, so here are buoy data from Cape Elizabeth, which is very much up on the shelf. 00:53:28.680 --> 00:53:34.340 And the point I want to make is that red line, no matter what year you're looking at, 00:53:34.340 --> 00:53:36.900 has a lot more variability to it. 00:53:36.900 --> 00:53:43.960 When it goes up, it's now the excursion is only lasting like say a month or two months, 00:53:43.960 --> 00:53:47.240 as opposed to that three month that we saw earlier, 00:53:48.560 --> 00:53:52.540 which is from the Tillamook buoy, which is where that little t is. 00:53:52.540 --> 00:53:57.300 And that's because of this whole upwelling/downwelling phenomenon with the winds shifting 00:53:57.300 --> 00:54:02.580 that shift on a seasonal basis, but they also can shift within the season. 00:54:03.360 --> 00:54:05.520 All right. So now let's look on the near shore. 00:54:06.860 --> 00:54:11.600 These are moorings that the Olympic Coast National Marine Sanctuary actually puts out. 00:54:11.600 --> 00:54:19.200 And Julianne Koelinger, who has worked for the sanctuary, but did this as her master's degree 00:54:19.200 --> 00:54:21.119 at the University of Washington. 00:54:21.119 --> 00:54:26.060 And so she looked at temperature excursions in these very near shore places 00:54:26.060 --> 00:54:29.920 and this is temperature and look at these excursions. 00:54:29.920 --> 00:54:37.100 They're large, they're about four Celsius, and they're over a couple of weeks, not three or two months. 00:54:37.100 --> 00:54:43.660 So this is a phenomenon and, again, it's related to the upwelling/downwelling signals 00:54:43.660 --> 00:54:47.760 and the, oh Ekman transport, and things I don't have time to tell you about. 00:54:47.760 --> 00:54:52.500 But in any case, it shows us that there's really fundamental dynamics. 00:54:53.280 --> 00:54:56.840 The last thing i'm going to tell you is going into Puget Sound, 00:54:56.840 --> 00:55:00.360 where we have these sills that retain the water 00:55:00.360 --> 00:55:06.600 and keep the water that has come in as it's flowing out. 00:55:06.600 --> 00:55:09.060 There's mixing so some of it comes back. 00:55:09.060 --> 00:55:12.120 And so some of that heat signal can stay there. 00:55:12.560 --> 00:55:20.800 So everybody said, okay everything's over 2013, 2014, 2015 the blob's gone offshore. 00:55:20.800 --> 00:55:25.640 These are the warm anomalies in Puget Sound of 2016. 00:55:25.640 --> 00:55:32.140 And if you're seeing red, it doesn't matter where you are or what depth you are, it's warmer than average. 00:55:32.140 --> 00:55:37.580 And so these are from profiling buoys, really cool oceanography technology, 00:55:37.580 --> 00:55:41.520 but they're telling us that that warm signal persisted. 00:55:41.520 --> 00:55:47.640 I also found just recently this paper by Jennifer Jackson from British Columbia 00:55:47.640 --> 00:55:53.480 of a fjord rivers inlet that also has, you know, it's a fjord, one of these sills. 00:55:53.480 --> 00:56:01.540 And it has retained the marine heat wave signal longer in into 2017 and beyond. 00:56:01.540 --> 00:56:06.200 And we're seeing that same kind of phenomenon in Puget Sound. 00:56:06.480 --> 00:56:10.980 So my reason in telling you this is that 00:56:10.980 --> 00:56:17.880 the differences in extreme temperature anomalies were different and it depends on where you were. 00:56:17.880 --> 00:56:22.860 And please don't share this little table at the bottom because it's just my eyeball summary. 00:56:22.860 --> 00:56:29.060 It hasn't been analyzed, it hasn't been peer reviewed. But I wanted to build for you in this talk, 00:56:29.060 --> 00:56:33.540 that it's so critical that we understand the oceans and how they work 00:56:33.540 --> 00:56:39.440 because if we're trying to predict economic losses or where resources might be affected, 00:56:39.440 --> 00:56:44.240 we really need to understand these mechanisms because it's not all the same. 00:56:44.840 --> 00:56:48.880 Okay, so that's my summary and I know I went longer than i should have. 00:56:48.880 --> 00:56:55.040 I'll just say marine heat waves are complex. They are, and will be, increasing effects on the ecosystem 00:56:55.040 --> 00:57:01.040 and humans can be profound, but localized areas can experience very different effects. 00:57:01.040 --> 00:57:04.760 and check out NANOOS, check out the other regional associations, 00:57:04.760 --> 00:57:09.120 check out marineheatwaves.org and, mostly, I want to say thank you so much. 00:57:09.120 --> 00:57:13.440 There's my email address and I really look forward to your questions. 00:57:13.440 --> 00:57:16.280 And Jackie, I guess we had one last poll. 00:57:16.280 --> 00:57:20.600 It's a little bit of a giveaway, but maybe we could just do questions, instead. 00:57:21.340 --> 00:57:23.200 - [Claire] Yeah we'll do the poll question go ahead Jacqueline. 00:57:23.260 --> 00:57:24.160 - Okay, great. 00:57:28.800 --> 00:57:31.920 - Okay, so hopefully you can see it. 00:57:34.160 --> 00:57:36.420 What do you think is the most important thing to do? 00:57:37.200 --> 00:57:42.520 Reduce our carbon emissions, educate others, research this topic, or all of the above. 00:57:43.880 --> 00:57:45.760 Oh, we've got lots of people answering. 00:57:45.760 --> 00:57:49.640 I'm gonna give you another second. One Mississippi, two Mississippi. 00:57:49.640 --> 00:57:52.460 Okay, I'm gonna close the polls for time's sake. 00:57:52.460 --> 00:58:00.380 And 83 percent said all of the above and nine percent says reduce our carbon emissions. 00:58:00.380 --> 00:58:01.980 So very good. 00:58:01.980 --> 00:58:06.880 - Yeah, well thank you everybody. I'm sorry i went so long. 00:58:06.880 --> 00:58:10.920 But, you know, when you said you wanted to understand the mechanisms 00:58:10.920 --> 00:58:15.040 and understand how we measure things. It's just like it's mana to an oceanographer 00:58:15.040 --> 00:58:20.440 who really loves to share the passion I have for the ocean and how to interpret it, 00:58:20.440 --> 00:58:23.420 how to translate that ocean because we depend on it. 00:58:23.420 --> 00:58:25.460 So I look forward to your questions! 00:58:25.940 --> 00:58:28.000 - Yeah we can take a couple of questions. 00:58:28.000 --> 00:58:31.940 We might go a little long. If folks are able to stay on, please do. 00:58:31.940 --> 00:58:34.840 If not, this will be recorded and people can catch up, later. 00:58:34.840 --> 00:58:39.360 We certainly will not get to all of the questions because we've had a whole slew of them come in. 00:58:39.360 --> 00:58:43.080 But i'll let Jacqueline kick it off with the question and maybe we'll do two for now 00:58:43.080 --> 00:58:44.840 and then we'll do our wrap up slides and 00:58:44.840 --> 00:58:49.800 if you agree Dr. Newton, we'll have you we'll send you the unanswered questions 00:58:49.800 --> 00:58:53.180 for you to respond over email, if that works. 00:58:53.180 --> 00:58:54.560 - I'm happy to do that, yep. 00:58:55.280 --> 00:58:57.060 -All right, Jacqueline, what do you have for us? 00:58:58.220 --> 00:59:03.420 - Hey so Janet Larson asks what is known about the effects on the deep ocean? 00:59:04.640 --> 00:59:07.660 Precious little, I would say. 00:59:08.080 --> 00:59:14.840 Yeah, I think the fact that we're seeing these temperature anomalies that are so deep 00:59:14.840 --> 00:59:18.120 and granted they're not large, you know, we're talking half a degree. 00:59:18.120 --> 00:59:28.160 So it really depends on on what biological tolerances are for those sorts of changes in the temperature. 00:59:28.160 --> 00:59:35.060 I'm not a deep ocean scientist, myself, but there's a whole movement, 00:59:35.060 --> 00:59:39.420 called the Deep Ocean Oserving System or DOOS. 00:59:39.420 --> 00:59:43.260 And so that would be a good resource to check 00:59:43.260 --> 00:59:49.140 and see whether they have any assessments of marine heat waves effect on the deep ocean 00:59:50.320 --> 00:59:51.000 - Thank you. 00:59:51.900 --> 00:59:54.260 I have a question here from Robin Craig. 00:59:54.260 --> 01:00:00.400 You know, you mentioned that there's an explosion of marine heatwaves research in the last five or six years. 01:00:00.400 --> 01:00:05.420 And so they're looking for clarification: are these heat waves themselves a newer phenomenon 01:00:05.420 --> 01:00:11.920 or did oceanographers just develop the techniques to notice them and study them? 01:00:11.920 --> 01:00:14.980 And are they bigger, longer, and more intense than they used to be? 01:00:15.840 --> 01:00:20.720 - Yeah they are bigger, longer, and more intense than they used to be. 01:00:20.720 --> 01:00:27.160 The satellite data, one of the things that you can do on the NANOOS app, on the climatology app, 01:00:27.160 --> 01:00:33.000 We have the satellite data that goes back well into the '80s. 01:00:33.000 --> 01:00:37.760 and some of these data records from the buoys are like 40 years long. 01:00:37.760 --> 01:00:40.839 So you can kind of click through the earlier years 01:00:40.839 --> 01:00:46.720 and, yeah, these are unprecedented in terms of the measurements. 01:00:46.720 --> 01:00:51.260 and we have-- we don't have like all data from everywhere, 01:00:51.260 --> 01:00:54.760 but we do have a lot of data from from places 01:00:54.760 --> 01:00:58.340 that if there were these kind of events we would have seen them. 01:00:58.460 --> 01:01:00.220 so, thank you. 01:01:01.680 --> 01:01:06.460 - All right, Jan we're sorry to have to cut you short on all these great questions that are coming in, 01:01:06.460 --> 01:01:09.920 but, again, we'll get those questions to you and give you some time to respond 01:01:09.920 --> 01:01:14.240 and get back to us. So we can send the question responses out to all the attendees. 01:01:14.740 --> 01:01:17.620 So just a couple of wrap-up slides, here. 01:01:17.620 --> 01:01:23.160 I mentioned earlier that we have a wonderful archive of all of these webinar presentations. 01:01:23.160 --> 01:01:28.560 So we'll send you a link for that. Everyone that attends get a certificate of attendance 01:01:28.560 --> 01:01:31.760 for one contact hour of professional development. 01:01:32.400 --> 01:01:38.220 There will be another webinar in our series that's just been added, today, for next Friday, May 1st. 01:01:38.220 --> 01:01:43.440 So I don't even have a slide for it but it's about studying whales and dolphins in the Hawaiian archipelago. 01:01:43.860 --> 01:01:49.360 So keep your eye out. All of you will get an email letting you know about that upcoming presentation. 01:01:49.360 --> 01:01:55.200 And then May 14th we have another great one about our earth is blue educational videos 01:01:55.200 --> 01:01:57.080 from our National Marine Sanctuaries. 01:01:57.600 --> 01:02:00.400 And then when you wrap up today's webinar and you close out, 01:02:00.400 --> 01:02:05.380 there is a short four question survey that takes literally probably less than a minute to complete. 01:02:05.380 --> 01:02:06.540 We'd love to get your feedback. 01:02:06.540 --> 01:02:11.480 We look at all that data and analyze how we're doing for formative evaluation. 01:02:11.480 --> 01:02:15.060 And then if you're a formal or informal educator, we actually want to hear from you, 01:02:15.060 --> 01:02:21.160 like what can we do within all of NOAA to provide you the materials for your classrooms or facilities. 01:02:21.160 --> 01:02:26.520 Like what length videos do you want, how do you like to do distance learning, through what platform. 01:02:26.520 --> 01:02:30.100 So there is an extended survey that you get the link in our survey. 01:02:30.100 --> 01:02:34.400 So please take the time to do that one. That one might take you about five minutes. 01:02:34.400 --> 01:02:35.820 So with that, 01:02:35.820 --> 01:02:38.300 thanks again for everyone's participation. 01:02:38.300 --> 01:02:43.280 Again, over 750 registrants for today's talk with Dr Jan Newton. 01:02:43.520 --> 01:02:50.140 We greatly appreciate your time, Jan, and thank you to Chris and Jacqueline for joining me as co-hosts. 01:02:50.140 --> 01:02:54.240 And we'll see you some of you next friday for the May 1st session. 01:02:54.240 --> 01:02:56.480 All right this concludes today's webinar. 01:02:56.480 --> 01:02:57.140 Thank you. 01:03:13.040 --> 01:03:15.120